Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd. share price target

KNPL is the market leader in the Industrial paints and third largest decorative paint company in India. KNPL's decorative business registered a volume growth of ~9% YoY while industry segment volume remains at low single digit. Revenue during the quarter increased by 14% YoY supported by festival demand and 21% price hike in decorative paints. However, EBITDA margin declined by 741bps YoY to 11.7% in Q3FY22 due to inflation in input prices & higher other expenses....

In the last two years, KNL has increased its total paint manufacturing capacity by 28% to 5.3 lakh tonnes at an investment of ~| 1100 crore Q3FY22 Results: Lower industrial volume offtake and delay in passing of higher...

Margins have largely bottomed out from more than a decade low levels post 18-20% price increase in current year with QoQ improvement likely from 3Q Kansai's PE discount to APNT at 45% is at the lowest ebb in the last decade as it had multiple pain points across portfolio. However, we believe worst is over as 1) resolution of semiconductor issue will boost auto paints demand...

About the stock: Kansai is the global leader in industrial coatings (automotive). but revenue growth was in line with our estimate. Favourable base and strong demand for decorative paints helped drive...

to 1) Increased pressure on GRM's due to significant input cost inflation and 2) semiconductor shortage led impact on auto sales may last upto 1 year. We are reducing our Gross margin estimate by 260bps in FY22 with gradual...

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We are increasing our FY22/23 EPS estimates by 2.2%/0.9% mainly due to 1) Recovery in decorative paints since June21 2) Improved mix in decorative segment 3) Encouraging pickup in new business which account for 10% of revenues and 4) Improved performance expected in Industrial segment on a favorable base. However, we reduce our Gross margin estimate by 30bps as...

Kansai Nerolac (KNPL) result was below our estimates due to higher than expected raw material cost pressure. Business recovery remained strong driven by resilient volume growth and price hikes (driven by input cost pressure). In international market; KNPL improved operating profit margins in Nepal and Bangladesh while reduced EBITDA loss in Srilanka during FY21. Raw material cost inflation remained a major concern. However, KNPL has been able to take price hike in decorative (by 2.5%) and industrial coatings (by 3-4%) businesses to offset inflation. Management expects raw material cost to subside due to tepid demand. Positively, KNPL introduced entire range of...

Strong balance sheet to navigate short-term challenges Kansai is the third largest decorative paint players with organised market share of ~10%. While the sales recovery was 95% in FY21, the EBITDA margin of the company increased 200 bps YoY at ~18%. This has helped in a ~100% bottomline recovery for the company in FY21. On the balance sheet front, Kansai maintained its debt free status with net cash balance of | 650 crore. We believe the company's strong balance sheet, supported by...

KNPL expects gradual demand recovery post Covid-19 stabilizes, focus on market share gains across segments. We cut our FY22/23 EPS estimates by 22.7%/5.1% mainly due to twin impacts of 1) Lower gross margins due to 13-14% input cost inflation and 2) Demand impact due to localized lockdowns and wide spread impact of Covid 19 in...