Vodafone Idea Ltd. share price target

In our recent interaction with VIL's top management, they reinforced the stance on fasterthan-expected delivery of cost synergies, keep treading in the right direction on network integration, data capacity expansion, raising customer realization with minimum ARPU plans, and focusing on incremental 4G subscriber share. Management's focus remains on generating incremental revenues by increasing 4G coverage and creating additional data capacity. Although incremental data subscribers...

This has led to an increase in 4G population coverage to 65% v/s 40% at the time of merger. While taking a tariff hike in the current market situation is unlikely, management indicated that its initiatives on network synergies, minimum recharge voucher program and accelerating shift from 2G to 4G should drive EBITDA growth. The company expects to achieve cumulative EBITDA of INR200b in the next eight quarters. Based on our workings, we estimate the 3QFY19 EBITDA run-rate of INR11.4b to reach INR37.1b in 4QFY21, factoring in (a) INR12b synergy gains (INR78b opex synergy by FY21), (b) zero IUC gain v/s current estimate of INR4b and (c) INR17.7b from revenue-linked gains, led by the minimum recharge voucher program, increasing shift to 4G and ARPU increase. Management plans to source this from the INR250b rights issue, the INR50b Ideas stake sale in Indus, current cash & investments of INR136b, and cumulative EBITDA of INR200b over the next eight quarters.

Vodafone Idea's consolidated operational print continued to remain weak, albeit with a tad improvement QoQ. Q3FY19 was the first full quarter of merged entity. Hence, numbers are not comparable QoQ or YoY. Our analysis is based on comparison with pro-forma numbers (assuming full quarter of merger) and our estimates Revenues were at | 11,765 crore (vs. our estimate of | 12356 crore), down 2.2% QoQ (on proforma basis) led by impact of downgrade of packs, with ARPU at | 89 (up ~1.5% QoQ). Arithmetic ARPU uptick...

7 February 2019 Reversal in EBITDA trend led Vodafone Idea to witness growth for the first time (excl. one-offs) since the launch of RJio. LTL growth came in at 16% QoQ to INR11.4b (12% miss), led by synergy gains, despite LTL revenue decline of 2.2% QoQ to INR117.6b (in-line). (for exceptional item and DTA impact) net loss stood at INR62b (v/s INR44.5b in 2Q). A silver lining was the monthly exit revenue (Dec18 and Jan19) experiencing growth. (1) Combined FY19-20E capex guidance remains unchanged at INR270b (ex-redeployment). (2) Expect rights issue to get completed by early 1QFY20. (3) Expect network integration across all circles to get completed by Jun20. With estimated run-rate of a healthy INR2.5-3b quarterly synergy accretion in FY20, we expect EBITDA at INR81b.

At our targeted 10x FY21E EV/EBITDA, VIL is worth Rs 48/sh, after a whopping 64% dilution at Rs 45/sh. Vodafone Ideas (VIL) analysts meet exuberated managements confidence of it moving in the right direction, to stay in shape and benefit from the eventual improvements in the industry fundamentals. We concur. Yet, it shouldnt turn out to be merely optimistic posturing. There is no room to err.

22 November 2018 Management has brought forward the synergy target (INR140) achievement (INR84b) will be in the form of opex reduction, majority (INR55b) of which will be achieved by minimizing network opex (INR18b already accrued with 66,000 site exits in 2QFY19). Additional 22,000 overlapping site exits and network integration should lead to further ~INR37b rental/energy savings over 30 months. Management explained that it will decisively streamline duplication of network in ~300 districts, wherein it has revenue/EBITDA share of 10%/-41% and market potential too is very low. Further, it will save INR17b/INR12b from G&A;/customer opex synergies (includes streamlining customer acquisition and servicing, and consolidation of A&P; cost of the two brands). Vodafone Idea Being the spectrum leader in the market (spectrum life of nearly 16-18 years), the company has at hand the key task of accelerated deployment of 4G spectrum and network rollout.

At our targeted 10x FY21E EV/EBITDA, VIL is worth Rs 48/sh, after a whopping 64% dilution at Rs 45/sh. Vodafone-Ideas (VIL) 2QFY19 was weak with revenue decline of 7.1% QoQ (Bharti fell 2.2%, while Jio leapt 14%). ARPU dropped 4.5% and subscribers cracked 3%. VIL added 4.4mn data subs, weaker than peers. The intent to infuse funds signals long-term commitment.

We value RJio at 10x Jun-20E EV/EBITDA (vs. 9x for Bharti/Idea) at an EV of Rs 2.9tn (Rs 490/sh). Jios FY18 AR depicts that (a) its capex intensity remains high. It spent ~Rs 502bn in FY18 including Rs 133bn for capitalized interest and opex (b) Rs 700bn (30%) of its fixed assets is yet to be operationalized (c) vendor financing provided ~22% (or Rs 561bn) of Jios cumulative funding of Rs 2.4tn. It also accounts for ~40% of its net debt (Rs 1.4tn) outstanding as of Mar18 and (d) Jios gross cumulative investment of Rs 2.4tn is similar to Bhartis India business (Rs 2.5tn), but with network capacities that carried >3.7x data traffic in FY18 (3x in 1QFY19).

Reiterate BUY with TP of Rs 70 (9x EV/E plus synergies). Ideas 1QFY19operating performance was weak led by 6.6mn subscriber loss, flat data subscribers and modest 1mn broadband subscriber additions. This we believe is owing to focus on impending merger. Ideas high leverage (Rs 1.1tn for merged entity; ~14-15x net debt/exit EBITDA) constraints it from being aggressive in the market place by steeping up capex. This may necessitate equity infusion.

Consolidated revenues came in lower at | 5889.2 crore (down 4% QoQ) vs. our estimate of | 5989.6 crore, impacted by lower ARPU for the quarter, which was at | 100, down 4.8% QoQ, 29.1% YoY vs. our estimate of | 102. Subscriber addition for the quarter was also muted vs. peers with net subscriber loss of ~4 million QoQ, on VLR basis. Voice volume usage for quarter was up 5.8% QoQ at 349.5 bn minutes while data volumes for quarter were up 24.5% QoQ at 992 mn MB with per sub data usage at 7.3 GB/sub/month, up 21% QoQ...