Vodafone Idea Ltd. share price target

Margins improve, profit slips on high provisions Vodafone Idea Limited operates as a telecom service provider. The Company offers 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile services, as well as mobile payments, advanced...

Supreme Court of India passed an order in favor of the DoT on a long pending industry-wide case of the definition of Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR). On November 20th, a two-year moratorium was announced on the...

Q4FY19 being a seasonally strong quarter, results were very good and most managements were sounding positive about the outcome of the elections and the recovery thereafter. Their tone resonated hope. Q1 has typically been a seasonally weak quarter. We heard post result conference calls of nearly 35 small and mid cap companies across sectors; and it was hard to miss the sharp change in the tone and the commentaries...

Q4FY19 being a seasonally strong quarter, results were very good and most managements were sounding positive about the outcome of the elections and the recovery thereafter. Their tone resonated hope. Q1 has typically been a seasonally weak quarter. We heard post result conference calls of nearly 35 small and mid cap companies across sectors; and it was hard to miss the sharp change in the tone and the commentaries...

Given uncertainty around successful integration and potential downside, we recommend REDUCE rating on the stock with a target price of Rs. 5.4 based on ~8x FY21E EV/EBITDA. Topline impacted by reduced customer base In Q1FY20, Company's revenue declined 4.3% QoQ to Rs. 11,270cr, primarily on decreased subscribers base (-4.2% QoQ to 320.0mn). However, 4G data subscriber base witnessed growth of 5.1% QoQ to 84.8mn in Q1FY20. Blended churn ratio during the current quarter stood at 3.7% compared to 7.2% in Q4FY19. Overall ARPU...

Revenue decline of 4.3% was owing to exit of minimum ARPU customer, IUC revenue loss (~| 80 crore) as well as downtrading. The exit of 14.1 mn customers was much more than our anticipation marked the fourth consecutive quarter of subscriber base decline. We again reiterate that the ARPU increase of 3.8% QoQ is merely a mathematical kick on a lower subscriber base. Therefore, this does not reflect any improvement in pricing/up-trading, etc. The company's net addition of 4.1 mn 4G customers (largely conversion of own base in areas where it is expanding), was still...

Revenue growth was at 0.1% QoQ, with ARPU at | 104 (up ~16.9% QoQ). We note that ARPU increase is merely a mathematical kick on lower subscriber base. Therefore, it does not reflect any improvement in pricing/up-trading, etc. Most importantly, post-paid subscriber base at ~23.1 million declined sequentially by 0.57 mn (2.4% decline QoQ). We also highlight that the company's net addition of 5.4 million 4G customers (largely conversion of own base in areas where it is expanding) in Q4FY19, is still lower than competition, reflecting the weaker relative standing....

VIL is moving in the right direction by strengthening 4G rollouts, balance sheet through rights issue, stake sale in Indus and potential monetization of fiber assets. That said, low EBITDA, substantially higher leverage and persistent cash burn has put VIL in precarious position with limited room to err. Synergy benefits, substantial 4G sub additions and tariff hikes are essential. Pricing strategy by competitors is key for viability and stock sentiment hereon. We believe all these factors may play out. Our TP is highly sensitive to tariff increase. Vodafone Idea (VIL) 4QFY19 results were ahead of estimates. This was primarily led by inevitable synergy benefits post integration. That said, operating performance was feeble with flat revenues QoQ and modest data subscribers additions. BUY with TP of Rs 19 (10x FY21E EBITDA).

Revenue changes its course: A stellar jump in APRU helped clear the major hurdle of a continued downtrend in revenue, which stood flat sequentially at INR117.8b (in-line) in 4QFY19. This, coupled with INR2b one-offs, led to strong EBITDA growth of 57% QoQ to INR17.9b. Interestingly, even adjusted for oneoffs, EBITDA was up by a robust 39% QoQ (13% beat), primarily led by merger synergies (margin expanded 380bp to 13.5%). Adjusted for exceptional item and the DTA impact, IDEA reported a net loss of INR40.6b (v/s INR62.1b in 3Q). Concall highlights: (1) IDEA guided for capex of INR168b for FY20. (2) Net IUC EBITDA contribution stands at slightly over INR4b, which is likely to reduce to nil...

VIL requires INR600b over the next eight quarters to fund (a) estimated capex of INR326b, (b) spectrum payment liabilities of INR213b and (c) external debt servicing and interest cost. The rights issue of INR250b, along with Ideas INR50b stake sale in Indus, current cash position, and cumulative EBITDA of INR220b until FY21, will be the sources of funds. Despite the huge fund raise and the estimated EBITDA increase to INR126b by FY21, net debt is likely to remain at INR1,060b, with the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio at a steep 8.4x. Unlike Bhartis fund raise, which will help it to deleverage the balance sheet significantly, VILs estimated annual capex requirement and interest burden of over INR200b in FY21 may not be fulfilled even with an optimistic EBITDA of INR126b. Thus, without an ARPU increase, it may need another round of fund-raise to survive. Given the cash flow and capex requirements for telcos and the current price plans offered, there exists a huge opportunity to increase ARPU.