Construction Materials share price target

We expect our cement coverage universe to report Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of ~14%/27%/52% QoQ and ~8%/-2%/-16% YoY in Q4FY26, driven by seasonally strong demand and sequential improvement in realizations in non-trade segment, partly offset by rising input costs. Demand momentum improved steadily through the quarter, supported by pick-up in construction activity post winter, improving rural offtake and continued infrastructure execution, though some regions witnessed temporary disruptions due to year-end adjustments and festivities. Channel checks indicate healthy demand across most regions, with South and West remaining...

Our Top Positive Result Plays: UltraTech Cement and Dalmia Bharat Ltd

India Cement Sector Update: Margin Pressure Meet Structural Demand

significant share of exports, is witnessing heightened operational stress. In Q3FY26, Gujarat Gas volumes in Morbi declined sharply by ~50% YoY to ~1.7 mmscmd (vs. 3.4 mmscmd YoY and 2.1 mmscmd QoQ), signaling a meaningful slowdown in production activity. Additionally, lower propane prices (Rs 3/SCM...

Dealers expect prices to improve meaningfully from April onwards, as yearend volume push eases, while demand is expected to remain healthy. We interacted with cement dealers across regions in India to assess demand and pricing trends in Feb'26. Our discussions indicate that demand remained healthy across most markets, with steady offtake supported by infrastructure activities and seasonal construction momentum, though some regions witnessed temporary slowdown due to Holi and year-end adjustments. Pricing trends were mixed MoM, as aggressive volume push ahead of March closing led to price corrections in select North and South markets, while East and West...

In the international market, PVC resin prices have risen to USD 740/MT from USD 620/MT between 9 th Jan-26 and 20th Feb-26 (+19.4%), following China's announcement on VAT rebate removal and the closure of select global suspension PVC resin plants (including Westlake's Aberdeen PVC facility and one plant of Shin-Etsu). On a back-of-the-envelope calculation, current global PVC prices along with INR depreciation imply domestic PVC resin prices of ~Rs 81/kg based on historical trends, suggesting a further potential increase of ~Rs 3/kg. The Chinese policy announcement has already constrained PVC resin availability in the domestic market, leading to higher prices. This has impacted smaller and regional players in terms of resin procurement and volumes, ultimately benefiting organized players such as Astral and Supreme Industries through potential market share gains....

Dealers expect prices to further improve in February as demand strengthens on the back of Government spending. We interacted with cement dealers across regions in India to assess the demand and pricing trends in Jan'26. Our discussions indicate that demand showed a gradual improvement across select markets, supported by easing...

Q3FY26 Earnings Preview - CEMENT

The cement sector in India experienced subdued demand during Q3FY26, particularly in October and November 2025, following a moderate growth in the previous quarter.

Our Top Positive Plays: UltraTech Cement; Dalmia Bharat; JK Cement; JK Lakshmi and Star Cement

In May'25, PVC resin prices increased by Rs 1.5 per Kg in the domestic market, marking a reversal after consistent decline over the past five months and PVC resin prices increased by Rs 4.6 per Kg till Aug-25. However, in Q1FY26...

Top Conviction Ideas - UltraTech Cement Ltd, Ambuja Cements Ltd, Dalmia Bharat Ltd, JK Lakshmi Cement

declines of Rs37/bag in the West and South, while the East saw a ~Rs10/bag increase. Prices in the North and Central regions remained flat. As a result, the all-India average price was flat MoM at ~Rs361/bag. Looking ahead, dealers expect limited pricing action until the monsoon recedes....

In Q1FY26E, the Indian cement sector witnessed a strong sequential recovery in pricing, particularly in the southern and eastern markets, following an extended period of margin compression and weak realizations.