Transportation share price target

BDI for H2FY17 is expected to be much better compared to the beginning of the year when it tumbled to an all-time low of 290 points. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) for August remained range bound between 600 and 700 levels. Average BDI for August sequentially de-grew 4% MoM to 676. Medium size vessels like Supramax continued to at 670 levels. However, indices for smaller size vessels like Handysize improved 11% MoM to a yearly high of ~400 levels. Indices for...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Average BDI for July sequentially grew 16% MoM to 707. Over the past four months, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) seems to have bottomed out, maintaining a range of 600-800 levels. Indices for Capesize improved for a fourth consecutive month with 8% MoM growth. Likewise, indices for Panamax, Supramax and Handysize sequentially grew 40%, 16% and 8%, respectively Broader indices for tankers Baltic Dirty Tanker (BDTI) and Baltic Clean...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) for May remained range bound within a range of 100 points. Average BDI for May grew 4% MoM to 620....

Through our BOT Toll Monitor, a quarterly product, we try to analyse and find patterns in toll-collection figures of various projects across the country, thereby providing meaningful insights into the broader macro-economic activity and the...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research The Baltic Dry Index for April remained volatile starting the month at 430 levels and reaching a high of 750 levels. Indices for dry bulk...

Order awards in March, 2016 at INR289b (-7% YoY, +85% MoM) v/s average levels of INR196b in the last 12 months and were supported by finalization of large size projects, especially in power generation, railways and buildings and factories segment. Ordering activity has also witnessed improved traction in base (INR15b) on MoM basis. The key contributing segments include Power Gen (INR67b), Railways (INR53b), buildings...

With no fare hikes and several big-ticket investments in the offing, the Railway Budget 2016-17 was an extension of the ambitious five-year development plan charted out last year. However, the long journey to reforms was riddled with short-term challenges. While a part of the blame fell on the tepid macro environment, it was mostly a case of over optimistic estimates.

India Railways in 2017 has projected for 92% Operating Ratio, on the back of optimistic revenue assumptions and containment of fuel expenses. The budgeted Operating Ratio also captures impact of implementation of 7th pay commission. Considering optimistic revenue assumptions, we expect Railways miss its next year milestones. The biggest positive from the budget is 42% increase in Railways capital outlay to Rs1.17 lakh cr. Gross Traffic Receipt growth assume optimistic growth in passenger receipt Railway budget assumes 10.7% growth in FY2017 gross traffic receipts to Rs184,820cr. Freight segment (67% of GTR), is expected to grow by 5.4%, which in our view is attainable. Budget also assumes 13.0% increase in passenger segment receipts owing to increase in the count of passengers originating and dynamic pricing. With no rate hikes announced, we expect this assumption to be optimistic. Implementation of 7th pay commission to put pressure on operating ratio Budget assumes 13.2% decline in the fuel expenses to Rs23,084cr. Budget also assumes growth in staff costs and pension liabilities for FY2017, on account of implementation of the 7th pay commission. Accordingly, the total expenditure is budgeted to increase by 12.6% in FY2017 to Rs171,060cr. As a result Operating Ratio is expected at...

Constrained revenue barely provided any scope for improvement in Continued challenges of revenue mobilization led to cutback in FY16...