Energy and Power share price target

Our preferred picks in the sector: Generation companies: NTPC Ltd and NLC India Ltd Power Ancillaries: Skipper Ltd

Trump 2.0: Implications for Renewable Energy and Industrial Metals

360ONE: Strong quarter, but price runup limits the upside. IPRU: Strong growth but VNB margin dwindles. TATACONS: Strong performance in international markets. Power Monthly Tracker: Strong RE capacity addition, though below target

Power: CERC final tariff norms Maintaining policy continuity

CERC retains most of the norms specified in the draft tariff regulations in letter and spirit, ensuring stability of policy

Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review. Crude Imports: India's crude import-story so far. Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review. GDP Forecast: GDP expectations for FY25. Diversified Financials: Sustained, strong demand for mutual funds. Power: Capacity addition quickens but lags annual targets

Power plant PLFs higher at 72.3% in Jan'24 and 68.5% YTD; government raises peak demand estimate 5% to 384GW by 2032

New draft tariff norms ensure stability of existing power assets and recognise risk-reward across asset classes

Q3 in line with flattish revenue growth YoY and healthy operational performance across our coverage universe

Peak power demand for December at 214GW with no demand unmet; thermal PLFs ~200bps above target

Peak demand for November at 205GW, declining 8% MOM with the onset of winter; Thermal PLFs up ~500bp YoY

India to add 20GW of RE capacity in FY24 and power producers now pursuing hybrid and RTC solutions, per ICRA

We hosted the management of three renewable energy companies in our Nuvama Emerging Ideas Conference 2023,' namely Oriana Power (ORIANA), Waaree Renewable Technology (WAREERTL), and Synergy Green

Short-term power price rally led by states vying for 24x7 supply, decline in hydro generation and plant shutdowns

Power: Expert call - Legal aspects of draft electricity bill

Once Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2021, is enacted, states will have little choice but to implement it

Crude oil price remained weaker: Crude oil prices continued to fall in the month of October as Europe expands Coronavirus lockdowns mainly in France and Germany. The United States also faces a surge of cases. While crude oil demand has picked up from Asian countries and inventory levels are depleting worlwide, risk of higher supplies from couple of OPEC nations and rising rig counts globally raises concern of over-supply. Brent crude oil price fell 1.5% MoM to average US$40.5/bbl in Oct'20. Also, delay in fiscal stimulus package in the US further poses a negative factor for crude oil price. US total rig counts which touched low of 244 rigs at mid-Aug'20 now increased to 296 at the end...

Crude oil price: As world economies continues to grapple with rising coronavirus cases mainly in US, India and Europe, crude oil prices continues to remain under pressure. Demand concern coupled with higher output led to a fall in prices during Sept'20. Brent crude oil price fell by 7.2% MoM to average US$41.1/bbl in Sept'20. Also, delay in fiscal stimulus package in the US further placed pressure on crude oil price. We reiterate our crude oil price forecast of US$40-45/bbl in near term and to stabilize at US$50-55/bbl in the long run. OPEC & Non-OPEC: OPEC's production remained flattish MoM in September to 24.4mbpd (23.9mbpd in Jul'20) as production in Saudi Arabia remained stable at 8.9mbpd. However, Libya and Iraq are expected to increase its supply in the next few months which is likely to further put pressure on oil price. We expect oil production at US to rise slowly on the back of higher crude oil price and rising rigs while Saudi Arabia will keep losing market share in coming few months. Singapore GRM: Singapore GRM showed some improvement and averaged to US$0.25/bbl in Sept'20 compared to US$0.12/bbl in Aug'20. Naphtha and...

Crude oil demand regained momentum as world economic activities continue to pick up amid ease in supply. Brent crude oil price rose by 3.4% MoM to average US$44.3/bbl in Aug'20 and remained in a narrow range during the month. OPEC+ agreed to ease oil output cut to 7.7mbpd starting Aug until Dec'2020. We reiterate our crude oil price forecast of US$40-45/bbl in near-to-medium term and to stabilise at US$50-55/bbl in the long run. OPEC's production increased marginally in August to 23.9mbpd vs 23.4mbpd in July 20 (22.5mbpd in Jun'20). This was led by Saudi Arabia which increased its production by 5% MoM to 8.86mbpd while production at other OPEC nations largely unchanged. We expect OPEC production level would gradually increase as demand revives and also Saudi Arabia would not like to lose market share against US for a longer period of time. We have witnessed Saudi has started giving discount to the benchmark crude to the tune of US$0.5-1.1/bbl to regain some market share. Non-OPEC production rose by 2.5% in July 20 MoM to 59mbpd. US production saw a gradual ramp-up and rose to 10.7mbpd, an increase of 5.9% MoM. We...

As world economies activities picks up, crude oil demand is regaining momentum and slowly inching towards pre-Covid levels. Further, curb on production by OPEC+ and huge liquidity drove Brent crude oil price by 7.2% MoM to average US$42.8/bbl in Jul'20. We expect oil price to remain in the broader range of US$40-45/bbl due to demand risk and reduction in production cut by OPEC+ from August onwards until December. Also lost supply from US shale assets, will keep price under check. However, on a medium to long-run we expect crude oil price to stabilise near US$50-55/bbl. OPEC increased its production level in July marginally to 23.4mbpd vs 22.6mbpd in Jun'20 (24.6mbpd in May'20). This was led by Saudi Arabia which increased its production by 15% MoM to 8.45mbpd while other countries saw a minor cut in production. Further, OPEC+ agreed to reduce the daily production cut from 9.6 million barrels a day to 7.7 million barrels a day from August. Non-OPEC production was flat at 57.6mbpd in Jun'20 compared to May'20. US production remained flattish at 10.1mbpd. We expect it to remain at a lower...