Metal and Mining share price target

During Jun-25, Indian steel prices declined 1.4% MoM to Rs50,700/tonne, while Chinese steel prices fell by 2.2% MoM to $445/tonne. Coking coal prices dropped by 8.1% MoM to $136/tonne, amid subdued global demand. In May-25, Indian steel production rose by 4.7% MoM to 13.5 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output increased by 0.7% MoM to 87 mn tonnes, while global steel production expanded by 1.5% MoM to 158 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports increased by 1.1% MoM and 9.9% YoY to 10.6mn tonnes, as Chinese domestic demand continues to struggle. Additionally, the USA announced a 50% tariff on steel,...

in H1FY26. Although domestic demand remains strong aided by GoI spending, Q1FY26 volume growth seems to have affected by early monsoon, heatwaves expected to benefit from a USD10-15/t decline in coking coal costs, which have fallen to USD184/t levels. As a result, EBITDA/t for our coverage companies is expected to improve on an average ~Rs2,400/t QoQ. However, with weakened steel prices on monsoon led weakness, FY26 EBIDTA growth would depend upon demand recovery in H2FY26. Uncertainties amid ongoing tariff wars and geopolitical tensions have kept...

Top picks: APL Apollo Tubes, Hindalco, NALCO and Tata Steel.

During May-25, Indian steel prices declined 2.1% MoM to Rs51,400/tonne, while Chinese steel prices remained unchanged at $455/tonne. Coking coal prices fell by 2.0% MoM to $148/tonne, amid muted global demand. In Apr-25, Indian steel production declined by 6.5% MoM to 12.9 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output dropped 7.3% MoM to 86 mn tonnes, while global steel production contracted by 6.3% MoM to 156 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports remained flat MoM but increased 13.4% YoY to 10.5mn tonnes, as global buyers showed resistance to higher prices offered by Chinese producers. Additionally, the recent...

Top Conviction Ideas - Hindalco, APL Apollo Tubes, NALCO.

As per our import parity prices calculation, FTA countries can supply material if domestic prices improve beyond Rs53,000/t, limiting price rise. The worsening of US-China trade relations has increased the risk of global demand and economic slowdown over the past month. Metal prices, a proxy for global economic activity, have been under pressure over the last few weeks, in addition to commodity-specific demand-supply issues. China being a major consumer of commodities, further weakness in the economy (which has already been soft over the last few years) can add to the ongoing...

domestic steel companies is expected to improve ~1% QoQ in Q4FY25 as flat imports and create a floor for Indian steel pricing. Heightened global uncertainties kept the exports markets under pressure. In contrast long product prices declined by 1% due to lower-than-expected infrastructure activities. Due to employee strike at NMDC mines, domestic iron ore prices stayed elevated however coking coal further softened 9% QoQ during Q4FY25. Initial announcements of US tariffs and rationalization of Chinese steel capacities had led to increase in steel prices across regions. However,...

Top picks are: We lean towards domestic-focused companies and prefer APL Apollo Tubes and Coal India as Top Picks. We also like Hindalco, but recommend a Buy on Dips' approach amidst the volatile macro environment due to the impact of reciprocal tariffs.

Top Conviction Ideas (Metals & Mining) - Hindalco; APL Apollo Tubes; Tata Steel

Q3FY25 Earnings Preview - Metals and Mining

Top Conviction Ideas - Hindalco; Coal India; APL Apollo Tubes; Tata Steel.