Automobiles & Auto Components share price target

India’s auto sales in September 2025 exhibited a strong upward trend, fueled by festive season momentum and the implementation of GST 2.0 reforms, which reduced tax burdens and stimulated consumer demand.

Auto OEMs: TVS Motors, Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp. (M&M - Non-Coverage) Auto Ancillary: Sansera Engineering Ltd, Endurance Technology, Minda Corporation

Although Maruti’s Sep’25 sales reflected a modest overall recovery, but domestic challenges persisted. Growth in exports and compact segment offered some cushion, but continued weakness in SUVs and entry-level cars poses challenges, making the oncoming festive season and new launches critical for a volume and margin recovery.

We prefer TVS Motors, Hero Motocorp, and Bajaj Auto in 2Ws (Eicher seems fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains.

As the festive season commenced along with anticipated GST rate cuts, OEM wholesale volume for September 2025 came in healthy. Notably, exports continue to stage a healthy growth on YoY basis for most of the OEMs. CV space reported healthy volume prints for the month of September 2025 with green shoots of recovery visible in the LCV segment. Tata motors set the bar high, outperforming in both PV & CV segment, while Royal Enfield (Eicher motors) lead the growth charge in the 2W domain. M&M continues to decisively dominate the tractor segment....

Government has announced GST 2.0 reforms which aims to rationalize the current multi-slab structure into a simpler framework, with two main rates of 5% and 18%, and a higher 40% slab for luxury and sin goods. For the auto sector, this overhaul...

India’s auto sales in August 2025 reflected a broadly mixed trend across segments. The industry’s domestic retail performance softened as consumers deferred purchases in anticipation of potential GST cuts

OEM wholesale sales volume for August 2025 came in healthy with 2W & tractor segments outperforming its peers. Notably, exports continue to stage a healthy growth on YoY basis for most of the OEMs. CV space reported healthy volume prints for the month of August 2025 with green shoots of recovery visible in the LCV segment. Maruti performed better than the peers in PV segment while Royal Enfield (Eicher motors) lead the growth charge in 2W domain. M&M continues to decisively dominate the...

Total sales volumes remained largely flat at 1,80,683 units (-0.6% YoY, +0.1% MoM), as domestic weakness continued to weigh on overall growth, partly offset by resilient exports and steady LCV demand.

We prefer TVS Motors, Hero Motocorp, and Bajaj Auto in 2Ws (Eicher seems fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains.

The proposed GST rate rationalization has created uncertainty among consumers, leading to the postponement of purchase decisions, most noticeably in the PV segment, and to a lesser extent in 2Ws.

Top Conviction Ideas - Hero MotoCorp Ltd; Bajaj Auto Ltd; Ashok Leyland; Sansera Engineering.

In July 2025, India’s automobile industry navigated an uncertain landscape marked by split dynamics across
its segments. Passenger car dispatches were flat or slightly down, reflecting weak demand, high inventory
levels, and a cautious retail outlook.

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - July 2025

Total sales volume grew by 3.1% YoY (+7.5% MoM) to 1,80,526 units, led by strong export growth and a broad-based sequential recovery in domestic dispatches.

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Automobile

The Indian auto industry witnessed a divergent performance in Q1FY26, with strong traction in the two-wheeler and tractor segments, while the passenger vehicle (PV) and commercial vehicle (CV) categories grappled with demand moderation, elevated inventory, and fragile retail sentiment.

We prefer Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Auto in 2Ws (TVS, Eicher seem fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains.

Top Conviction Ideas - Hero Motocorp Ltd, Ashok Leyland, Sansera Engineering Ltd, Steel Strip Wheels Ltd.