Automobiles & Auto Components share price target

We prefer TVS Motors and Hero Motocorp in 2Ws; M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also keep a close watch on Ashok Leyland and Eicher (VECV) in the CV space for potential volume growth.

Valuation & View

Top Conviction Ideas (Auto and Auto Ancillaries) - Hero Motocorp Ltd, Ashok Leyland, Uno Minda, Sansera Engineering

We prefer TVS Motors Hero Motocorp in the 2Ws; M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs; we also monitor Ashok Leyland, Eicher (VECV) in the CV space for potential spurt in volumes.

Q3FY25 Earnings Preview - Automobile

In Q3FY25, the auto OEM sector showed mixed performance across segments. PV OEMs saw
strong growth during the festive season, fueled by higher demand for hatchbacks and increased discounts particularly in MSIL.

Valuation & View

In the near term, we believe the Auto Sector to witness consolidation across all segments. In the long run, we prefer M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment; we also monitor Ashok Leyland in the CV space for potential spurt in volumes.

Valuation & View

On a medium-term outlook, we prefer 2W OEMs over PV and Tractor; and remain cautiously positive on the CV space. We continue to prefer Hero Motocorp in the 2W segment; and M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment.

Top Conviction Ideas - Hero Motocorp Ltd; Sansera Engineering Ltd; Uno Minda Ltd.

The overall Indian auto sector delivered mixed results in Q2FY25. Passenger vehicles (PVs) saw strong demand, driven by SUV sales and export growth. Commercial vehicles (CVs) posted modest growth, supported by infrastructure demand but hindered by slowed mining activity, heavy rains, and regional challenges.

On a medium-term outlook, we prefer 2W OEMs over PV and Tractor; and remain cautious in the CV space. We continue to prefer TVS and Hero Motocorp in the 2W segment; and M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment.

Auto Sales Update

The auto sector has faced challenges over the last few quarters, including inventory pile-up, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuations in market demand.
In Q2FY25, lower consumer demand, and the shraddh period have impacted overall sales, causing a YoY decline in retail across various categories.

Retail sales in the auto industry fell by 9.3% YoY in September 2024, reaching 17.2 lakh units. Two-wheeler retail sales decreased by 8.5% YoY to around 12 lakh units, while car sales plunged by 18.8% YoY to 2.8 lakh units.

Every segment except tractors and three-wheelers recorded a YoY decrease during this period.

In September, automobile wholesales of listed companies grew by 14.3% YoY to 17.8 lakh units. Exports increased by 16.2% YoY to 2.9 lakh units. Domestic two-wheeler wholesales of listed companies increased by 21% YoY to 13.3 lakh units, while passenger vehicles increased marginally by 0.1% YoY to 2.4 lakh units.