PCBL Chemical Ltd. share price target

We interacted with the Phillip Carbon Black (PCB) management to get an update on company operations, post a stellar Q3 results (PAT up 80%YoY to Rs1.25bn). Management highlighted that record volumes including Specialty Carbon Black, supportive market conditions (given closure of ~30% Chinese supplies) and low cost inventory aided profitability and the trend is expected to sustain for next 2 quarters. Capacity expansion plans remain on track and company expects incremental sales volumes of 100-110K MT over FY22-23E post which the 150K MT greenfield capacity will drive growth beyond FY24E....

As per industry estimates, as of FY20, domestic effective capacity of carbon black is pegged at ~11 lakh tonne with domestic consumption pegged at ~9.5 lakh tonne, thereby implying industry operating at ~85%+ utilisation levels. On the import-export front, carbon black exports in FY20 were at ~1.4 lakh tonne, with imports at ~1.9 lakh tonne, implying net imports of ~0.5 lakh tonne. Going forward, carbon black demand is expected to grow to ~11.5-12 lakh tonne by FY23E, implying incremental demand of ~2-2.5 lakh tonne. With ~1 lakh tonne of surplus capacity being put up by PCBL's...

Unlike other automobile segments viz. 2-W, PV that are more linked to discretionary spend and have witnessed near secular growth over the past decade, CV demand is more cyclical and is governed by economic cycles. In the recent past, post FY19, the Indian CV space has been adversely impacted by several factors like revised axle load norms, efficient goods transport due to GST, slowing domestic economic activity and tighter financing availability due to NBFC crisis. Covid disruption from March 2020 onwards further added to industry woes with FY21E volumes in the M&HCV;...

30% of revenue and 70% from domestic market. Company is currently focusing on value added products (specialty chemical segment) and has...

Phillips Carbon Black (PCBL) reported a steady performance in a Covid impacted Q1FY21. Net sales for the quarter were at | 360 crore, down 61% YoY. Carbon black sales volume for the quarter came in at ~51,300 tonne, down 52% YoY with blended realisation at | 68/kg vs. | 83/kg in base quarter. PCBL reported positive EBITDA and PAT prints despite a steep decline in sales volume and value. EBITDA in Q1FY21 was at | 39 crore with EBITDA margins at 10.7% (EBITDA/tonne at ~| 7,500/tonne). PAT in Q1FY21 came in at | 2.3 crore. The company guided for near normalcy in operations...

Specialty grade CB is a margin accretive product and difficult to crack amid global dominance by a few players. PCBL, through its years of R&D; and capability building process, has made a mark in this field and clocked ~20,000 tonne (~5% of total CB sales volume) from this division in FY19. Going forward, with incremental capacities in place, the company is well poised to outperform its base business growth with speciality grade CB sales volume growing at a CAGR of 26% in FY19-22E to 40,000 tonne in FY22E (~9% of total volume). This will augment its EBITDA margins to 15.6% in...

Phillips Carbon Black (PCBL) reported a de-growth of 2% YoY in top-line at `8630mn led by lower revenue in carbon black segment. Sales volume in both rubber carbon black and specialty carbon black segment improved 2-4% YoY however pricing pressure in specialty...

Higher share of replacement demand in tyre to protect volumes Carbon black is used as a reinforcing agent in manufacturing tyres and constitutes ~26% of tyre by volume. Tyres industry by virtue of having higher share of replacement demand (~60% of sales) vs. the OEM sales (~30% of sales) is somewhat insulated from the prevailing slump in vehicle sales domestically and is expected to steadily grow at a CAGR of 7%+. This ensures healthy carbon black demand with PCBL as a natural beneficiary which is a market leader domestically with a market share of ~35%....

Phillips Carbon Black Ltd's (PCBL) Q4FY19 results were below our expectations, as this quarter's sales were impacted by sharp slowdown in the domestic auto sector