Both core CPI inflation (4.7% YoY) and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE (+4.1% YoY) remain more than double the Fed’s target, precluding any near-term easing of monetary policy. Instead, with public debt above 120% of GDP, the fiscal deficit (8.6% of GDP in the year to Jun’23) is likely to place upward pressure on bond yields through the rest of CY23.