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The Baseline
24 Jan 2022
Five analyst stock picks this week
  1. UltraTech Cement: HDFC Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this cement stock with a target price of Rs 8,775 indicating an upside of 19.3%. “We continue to like the company for its strong growth and margin outlook and balance sheet management,” says the analyst Rajesh Ravi. UltraTech Cement’s consolidated EBITDA in Q3FY22 fell 22% to Rs 2,420 crore and profit after tax fell 26% YoY to Rs 1,170 crore, owing to weak demand but the company is hopeful that cost inflation has peaked and noted that the demand was strong post some weakness in November 2021. This should strengthen pricing power and help pass on cost increases to customers. The business is aggressively expanding its green power capacities and working to increase its construction chemicals business, and hence HDFC Securities remains positive on the company.

  2. HCL Technologies: Axis Securities recommends a ‘Buy’ rating for this IT services company with a target price of Rs 1,600, indicating an upside of 37%. The analyst Omkar Tanksale says, “HCL Technologies Q3FY22 performance stood above our expectations and beat our estimate on all fronts.” The company's revenue was up 8.1% QoQ to Rs 22,331 crore while operating profits were up 8.3% QoQ to Rs 5,242 crore. The company’s deal wins continued to remain strong, up 38% YoY. The management gave double-digit revenue growth guidance for FY22 and expects EBIT margins at 19%-21%. According to Axis, the company has built a resilient business model by securing multiple and high-value long-term contracts with the world’s leading brand.

  3. Bajaj Finance: ICICIdirect assigns a ‘Buy’ rating to the financial lender based on the company’s healthy business momentum in Q3FY22 and improved asset quality. The brokerage has a target price of Rs 9,500, indicating an upside of 28.8%. Bajaj Finance posted a strong net interest income growth of 39.7% YoY, beating ICICIdirect’s estimates, says analyst Pankaj Pandey. Asset quality was healthy as GNPA and Net NPA ratios declined 72 bps QoQ to 1.73% and 32 bps to 0.78%,  respectively.  The key ratios are now back to pre-covid levels. According to Pandey, the core business has potential and is well on track to get transformed into an adaptable new age fintech.

  4. Newgen Software Technologies: Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this software company with a target price of Rs 900 (an upside of 52.2%.) In Q3FY22, the company’s revenue was up 9% QoQ to Rs 202.5 crore and EBITDA margin came in at 29%, up 350 basis points QoQ against 32% expected by Edelweiss. The IT services firm won 17 new deals in mature markets which gives decent revenue visibility. Edelweiss expects strong demand for digital transformation. It also sees the initiatives taken by the company on transition-related initiatives taken by diversifying the sales channel and its pricing model to help it grow. Adding to this the foray into developed markets, will help the company to record a 22% CAGR in revenues, and 24% CAGR in profits over FY 21-24, according to Edelweiss.

  5. ICICI Securities: Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ Rating on this brokerage stock, with a target price of Rs 1,000 indicating an upside of 28.5%. “ICICI Securities witnessed flattish retail broking revenue for the seventh consecutive quarter despite improved traction in client acquisitions,” says analyst Prayesh Jain. However, this was more than offset by the strong performance in distribution, Jain adds. The company’s Q3FY22 revenue stood at Rs 940 crore, up by 52% YoY which was 10% higher than Motilal Oswal’s forecasts. Profit after tax rose 42% YoY to Rs 380 crore which was 11% ahead of the brokerage’s estimates. The company saw significant traction in client additions over the past few quarters, driven by digital organic sourcing, strong capital markets, the new tie-up with HDFC Life     and new loan product launches. Motilal Oswal expects this momentum to sustain.

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