Double whammy of excise, lockdown to impact FY21 PAT Though the March quarter was largely unaffected by lockdown given prestocking by dealers, we believe Q1FY21 would be significantly impacted by 45 days production halt as well as shutdown of most retail shops in the country. We expect loss of sales during this period, which is likely to result in volume decline by 8% in FY21. Moreover, price increase due to the hike in excise duty in February 2020 would also lead to realisation growth to the tune of ~22% (including the mix change due to higher contribution from high priced cigarettes). This would help in more than absorbing the excise...