Novelis auto finishing lines that constitute ~20% of its volumes, however, have been impacted as its auto customers are either shut or operating at low production levels. As a result, we expect Novelis volumes to decline by 10% YoY and EBITDA per ton to fall by 14% YoY to USD380/t in FY21, leading to a 23% YoY fall in FY21E EBITDA to USD1.1b. We expect both volumes and margins to recover in FY22E as auto sales normalize driving an expected 17% YoY EBITDA growth. While cost benefits (lower energy cost, higher linkage coal supply, lower caustic soda cost, etc.) should help partly cushion the impact on margin, we still estimate India EBITDA to decline 26% YoY in FY21 due to lower volumes and LME price. We also expect LME to improve gradually from current 10- year lows due to supply curtailments and average USD1,575/t in FY21 and USD1700/t in FY22E.