Banks
Banks
SECTOR | 01 May 2020
HDFC Securities
The bump up in non-food credit growth is unlikely to sustain, given, (1) The growth arising from higher utilisation of undrawn limits is likely to be one time', (2) Demand for personal loans which has been supporting overall credit growth is likely to see a significant fall, which will not be compensated for by growth in other segments, and (3) Banks are likely to turn more risk averse. Our coverage banks reported a credit growth of ~16% over FY16-19 vs. non-food credit growth of ~10% over the same period. We expect our coverage to exhibit a ~7% credit growth over FY21E. Contrary to our expectations, non-food credit grew 7.6% YoY in Mar-20 (vs. 7.3% in Feb-20). Further, MoM growth came in at 4.2% (vs. 3.9% in Mar-19). The increase in Mar-20 accounted for 57% of the increase in FY20. While Mar has a/c for an increasing proportion of incremental (annual) non-food credit, the persistence of this trend in FY20 is surprising, in light of COVID-19 related disruptions. Much of the growth in Mar-20 was supported by credit for industries and services (~87% of incremental Mar-20 credit).
IDBI Capital released a Sector Update report for Banks on 01 May, 2025.
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