338.6500 -8.85 (-2.55%)
NSE May 23, 2025 15:31 PM
Volume: 691.6K
 

HDFC Securities
We maintain our conviction on GSPL based on (1) Stable volume growth (+5% CAGR over FY20-22E to 42.5mmscmd) (2) Smoothening of cyclicality in its earnings, post acquisition of a controlling stake in Gujarat Gas (3) Steady cash flows (FCF of Rs 32.80bn over FY20-23E) from transmission business that will turn the company's position to a net cash one. We value the transmission business using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) at Rs 138/sh (WACC of 10.5% and Terminal growth rate of 0%). To this, we add Rs 115/sh as value of its investments in Gujarat Gas, Sabarmati Gas and other investments to arrive at the target price of Rs 253/sh. We maintain BUY on GSPL though the Q3 PAT missed our estimates. Benign spot LNG prices will continue to (1) Drive volume growth from industrial customers and (2) Encourage RIL to continue using LNG. Our EPS estimates for FY20/21/22E stand at Rs 17.3/19.7/21.3 vs consensus EPS of Rs 28.1/25.7/23.7. Our SOTP based TP is Rs 253/share (consensus TP Rs 272).
Gujarat State Petron.. has an average target of 376.75 from 4 brokers.
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