We are NEUTRAL on Ashok Leyland. While the CV sales will benefit from the pro reform initiatives that are expected (post the recent election mandate), the upcoming transition to BSVI will impact growth rates in FY21E. Further, AL's market share has peaked at ~33% as competitive intensity is increasing and the product mix is weakening due to change in axle load norms. Sector dynamics are expected to change post the roll out of the DFC by the Indian railways in FY21. Key upside risk to our thesis is the introduction of a scrappage scheme in FY21. Ashok Leyland (AL) reported a better than expected 4Q with PAT at Rs 6.65bn amidst a challenging environment. We are increasing our earnings estimates by ~6% on the back of the results. We value the company at 13x PE multiple on FY21 earnings. Our revised target price is Rs 100. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating on the stock. We believe that while the stock could rally on expectations of a pickup in governments infrastructure spend, it should be used to reduce holdings. AL has to contend with several headwinds including (1) A weakening product mix (post axle load norm change), (2) Aggressive competition (Tata Motors will launch several new variants this year) and, (3) A change in management at a time of transition to BSVI (the company is searching for a new CEO post Mr. Dasaris departure).