Aluminum CoP is likely to increase further by USD20-25/t on input cost pressure. HNDL SA now has 28% of FY19 volumes hedged at higher price of USD2,200/t (v/s USD2,000 in FY18). Spend on high-IRR projects (e.g., Utkal Alumina and VAP) is picking up. We are adjusting our model for higher capex of INR53b (v/s INR28b) in FY19 to factor in the announced investments in Novel is and India. This will drive earnings in FY21. Therefore, we are adding book value of CWIP to SOTP and roll over to FY20E. EPS has increased by 5-6% on lower tax rate in the US. Stock is trading at attractive EV/EBITDA of 5.8xFY20E. Net debt/EBITDA ratio has declined to 2.8x in FY18 (from 6.4 in FY16). After de-risking balance sheet, Hindalco is now investing in high-IRR projects to drive growth. Maintain Buy.