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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    18 Apr 2017
    Bears in a Bull Market: The Year's Biggest Large-Cap Losers

    Bears in a Bull Market: The Year's Biggest Large-Cap Losers

    The stock market may be on the uptrend, riding a wave of strong macro-economic numbers, and the rollout of the GST. Demonetization gave the economy a short hangover rather than the multi-quarter gloom that was predicted, and investors are expecting companies to recover from the weak Q3 to deliver stronger end year results. 

    There were however, some once-promising companies that bucked the upbeat trend and delivered investors double digit negative returns, despite the rising stock market. These companies are reaching the end of the finish line for FY17 hobbled by challenges - new competitors (as with Idea Cellular), regulation issues (FDA crackdowns on Divis, SunPharma) or anti-industry rulings (such as United Spirits, which is plagued by both government and SC support for abstinence and lower alcohol consumption). 

    With a drumroll, we present the biggest losers in largcap stocks. 

    The biggest losers in largecap

    The Indian telecom industry took a heavy beating from the entry of Reliance Jio and the multitude of freebies it offered to telecom subscribers. Reliance Jio has permanently altered the telecom landscape and expectations of consumers in terms of prices and data availablity, and Idea Cellular, which didn't have the margin in its balance sheet to take on the Jio Juggernaut, has had to run into Vodafone's arms to survive. Investors lost nearly 30% of their wealth on this stock, as its share price plunged. 

    Indian IT, looking for growth in a tough global environment

    The crackdown on outsourcing and immigration in key markets - Brexit in Great Britain, and the Trump administration's H1B restrictions in the US - have taken its toll on the Indian IT industry, with once wealth-creator Infosys turning into a definite wealth-destroyer, with investors now one-fourth poorer than they were a year ago. Wipro Ltd also took a hit, but Infosys suffered more sharply due to missed guidance, and infighting between the existing management and the company's co-founders. 

    A prominent presence among the top losers of the year are pharma companies.While the Sensex rose 13.93% over the last one year (as of today) BSE Healthcare went in the opposite direction, declining by 1%. The impact of this is clearly visible in the four pharma companies that are among the biggest losers.

    One reason for this has been regulatory setbacks and delays in drug approvals, impacting the ability of these firms to leverage international markets for growth.  Price erosion is impacting Aurobindo Pharma, while FDA inspections of plants resulted in observations and import restrictions for Sun Pharma that are only now being lifted, as well as serious FDA observations for Dr. Reddy's. Dr. Reddy's also lost a key litigation in the US over its generic. 

    Company Name% Change in Share Price (1 year till date)
    Idea Cellular-29.06%
    Infosys Ltd-25.35%
    United Spirits-20.31%
    Sun Pharma-18.8%
    Aurobindo Pharma-16.69%
    Wipro Ltd-16.52%
    Dr. Reddy's-13.95%
    Bharti Infratel-13.39%
    Tech Mahindra-11.43%
    Lupin Ltd-9.69%

    The bear casts a long shadow on some sectors

    The sectors of IT and Pharma are impacted by problems that are likely to extend into FY18. The Trump administration has been reemphasizing the Make American, Buy American motto that had taken Donald Trump to victory, and the new rules are disproportionately set to impact these sectors. Proposed limits on funding for Obama's Affordable Care Act will also reduce government subsidies in medical programs, further impacting pharma growth in the US. 

    Party time looks distant for United Spirits as well, as Indian states such as MP and Chattisgarh have sent delegations to Bihar to study the successful implementation of the alcohol ban. Kerala and Tamil Nadu have already placed severe restrictions on alcohol sales. This combined with the SC ruling banning sales of alcohol near highways across India is impacting sales across the country, particularly in cities like Pune that have a dense network of highways criss-crossing the area. Sales industry-wide may drop as much as 15% according to estimates. 

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    The Baseline
    18 Apr 2017
    Trump to sign executive order on the H1B visa program today

    Trump to sign executive order on the H1B visa program today

    US President Donald Trump is set to sign an executive order today, which directs federal agencies to recommend changes to the H1B visa program that is used to bring 85,000 foreign workers to the United States each year to fill high-skilled jobs. The new rules would potentially limit the entry of lower-skilled and entry-level tech workers into the country.

    Trump will also use the "buy American and hire American" order to seek changes in government procurement practices to increase the purchase of American products in federal contracts. This is likely to impact outsourcing efforts as well as US company hiring - more than 15 percent of Facebook Inc's U.S. employees in 2016 used a temporary work visa, according to a Reuters analysis of U.S. Labor Department filings.

    Brick and mortar firms are coming back into fashion, with the Avenue Supermarts IPO turning into a highly successful listing, resulting in a windfall for early investors, and Future Retail expecting sales to jump by a fourth in FY18, according to the company. Future Retail - which acquired key competitors EasyDay and others over the last few years, rapidly expanding its presence in North and South India through these acquisitions - is benefiting from both demonetization and now the upcoming GST rollout.

    Demonetization turned into an overall boost for the firm, with non-cash transactions up sharply, and the company seeing a profit in the nine months ended December, compared to a loss of Rs 89.8 crore in the nine months in the previous year. 

    Stock in spotlight: Auto parts firm Wabco India, which has received a BUY call and target of Rs. 7,000 in share price from ICICI Securities. Analysts say that the government's renewed focus on emission norms and updated pollution controls are likely to benefit the firm. 

    Photo of the day: A truck carrying H1B visa applications at a government processing centre in California, USA. Eros Hoagland/NYT

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    The Baseline
    17 Apr 2017
    Godrej Properties announces new Taj project, government considers streamlined GST rates

    Godrej Properties announces new Taj project, government considers streamlined GST rates

    Mumbai-based developer Godrej Properties has announced a partnership with Taj Hotels to launch a new flagship property at Vikhroli, Mumbai. The new project 'The Trees', Godrej said, would be located off the Eastern Express highway in Vikhroli, and would include 150 guest rooms and suites, as well as dining and other facilities. 

    The government has adopted a four-tier tax slab for the GST regime, consisting of 5%, 12%, 18% and 28% tax rates for goods and services, and expects that the rate applicable on most products will be 18%. Now, the government is trying to minimise the tax rate variations within each tax slab, so that an entire category has only one rate applicable to it. Most countries around the world have two GST rates, and four is likely to increase inefficiencies in the system. Additional variations, the government said, could result in a highly cumbersome regime. 

    Stock in spotlight:  Bajaj Corp. Ltdshare price fell over 6% after the company reported weak results below analyst estimates, with a 2.9% drop in its net profit and 2% drop in its revenue for the March quarter. Erratic results for the company over FY17 has resulted in weak market performance overall - the stock has sharply underperformed the BSE Mid cap and BSE FMCG indices over the last one year. 

    Photo of the day: Celebrations of Poila Baisakh - the Bengali New Year. Anoop Menon

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    The Baseline
    16 Apr 2017
    Stock Reports for the week, with Jamna Auto and Navneet Education in focus: April 8-16

    Stock Reports for the week, with Jamna Auto and Navneet Education in focus: April 8-16

    Stock research reports for the week of April 8 -16, now live! Reports from HDFC Securities, ICICI Securities, Axis Direct and more. Analysts are bullish about Jamna Auto Industries and Navneet Education, with both companies getting strong upside estimates. 

    Auto suspension company Jamna Auto has seen its material margins increase sharply over the last few quarters to 40%+. Market share has gone from 66% 12 months ago to 72% now. Navneet Education is expected to benefit from syllabi updation in Maharashtra and Gujarat in FY18, states where the company has over 60% market share. The share price of both companies has been trending up over the past week. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-04-13Infosys Limited 1130.0021.32%Buy931.40HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2017-04-13Jamna Auto Industries Limited 275.0023.87%Buy222.00CD Equisearch
    2017-04-13WABCO India Limited 7000.0014.75%Buy6100.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-13GAIL (India) Limited 440.0016.40%Buy378.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-13APL Apollo Tubes Limited --%Mgmt Note1215.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-13Federal Bank Limited 110.0018.66%Buy92.70ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    3x
    2017-04-13EIH Limited 150.0021.26%Buy123.70ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-04-13Reliance Defence and Enginee.. 68.005.59%Hold64.40ICICI Securities Limited
    1x
    2017-04-13Navneet Education Limited 204.0023.19%Buy165.60ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-12Ashoka Buildcon Limited 214.001.18%Hold211.50Axis Direct
    1x
    2017-04-12eClerx Services Limited 1279.00-6.24%Hold1364.05Axis Direct
    2017-04-12The Phoenix Mills Limited 528.0028.94%Buy409.50Axis Direct
    2017-04-12Sobha Limited 361.00-3.78%Hold375.20Axis Direct
    1x
    2017-04-12Minda Corporation Limited --%Mgmt Note113.50Karvy
    2017-04-11The Byke Hospitality Limited 242.0019.24%Buy202.95Religare
    1x
    2017-04-11Ajanta Pharma Limited 2028.0014.52%Buy1770.85Motilal Oswal
    2017-04-11Mukta Arts Limited --%Mgmt Note95.10Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-04-11Dr. Lal PathLabs Limited 1202.0023.96%Buy969.65Prabhudas Lilladhar
    2017-04-11NOCIL Limited --%Mgmt Note99.70Prabhudas Lilladhar
    2017-04-10Shriram Transport Finance Co.. 1366.0029.98%Buy1050.95HDFC Securities 1x
    2017-04-10West Coast Paper Mills Limited 215.006.33%Buy202.20HDFC Securities
    2017-04-10Tata Motors Limited 609.0034.45%Buy452.95Motilal Oswal
    1x
    2017-04-10GMM PFAUDLER LTD. 634.0012.61%Buy563.00Axis Direct
    2017-04-10Essel Propack Limited 256.007.79%Buy237.50Axis Direct
    2017-04-10Divi's Laboratories Limited 690.006.33%Hold648.95Axis Direct
    1x
    2017-04-10Mahanagar Gas Limited --%Mgmt Note957.00Axis Direct
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    The Baseline
    13 Apr 2017
    Infosys appoints co-Chairman to address governance concerns

    Infosys appoints co-Chairman to address governance concerns

    Infosys, India's software services bellweather, said today that it would return up to Rs. 13,000 crore to its shareholders through a dividend or a buyback, following the lead of TCS (which had announced a share buyback in February). The move bows down to pressure from ex-founders and executives. Infosys also announced the appointment of Ravi Venkatesan, an independent director, as co-chairman of the company's board. The appointment is responding to the concerns former founders, particularly Narayana Murthy, expressed about what they said was the declining quality of governance and oversight in the company. 

    Infosys' Q4 profit was lower than expected, with declines in net profit (in rupee terms) by  2.4%. The company also expects its earnings margin before interest and tax (EBIT) to fall to 23-25% for FY18, lower than the 24-26% the company has maintained previously. Analysts like SMC Global expect other IT companies to disappoint in earnings as well, with the global regulatory environment turning against them, and increasing protectionism. 

    As the new era of GST dawns, various business segments are worrying about the impact. Property may now for example, become more expensive if it is placed as expected under the 18% tax slab. According to the legislation, land leasing, renting of commercial properties and purchase of under-construction housing projects will attract GST. The tax law has four slabs, 5%, 12%, 18% and 28%. Stamp duty is not under GST, which may further add to the tax burden on property. Property deveopers and real estate companies fear this may tamp down on already weak consumer demand.

    Stock in spotlight: The Byke Hospitality, which operates 11 properties in the hotel segment. The company's share price is trending up, and received a buy with a target price of Rs. 242 from Religare analysts. 

    Photo of the day: A hand reaches out to catch water during the Baisakh festival in Kathmandu. Navesh Chitrakar/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    12 Apr 2017
    Daily revision of fuel prices by IOC, HPCL and BPCL at petrol pumps from May 1

    Daily revision of fuel prices by IOC, HPCL and BPCL at petrol pumps from May 1

    India's state-owned fuel retailers - IOC, BPCL and HPCL - will implement daily revision of fuel prices at petrol pumps in five cities from May 1 ahead of a nationwide rollout. The five cities in the first phase will be Puducherry and Vizag in South India, Udaipur in the West, Jamshedpur in the East and Chandigarh in the North. This is the first time in India daily price revision will be attempted. It will be done digitally through a tech system, where prices can be changed from one central point. Previously, prices were changed every fortnight, with dealers waiting next to their phones at an appointed time to hear the next price update. 

    The telecom giants are warring again, after Reliance Jio launched a new subscriber plan that rival Airtel called "old wine in a new bottle", saying that it closely resembles the plan that TRAI had asked Jio to withdraw from the market. The new plan launched by Jio offers 1 GB 4G data per day, as well as unlimited SMS and calling for three months at Rs 309 for its Prime members. Rs 509 offers subscribers double the data per day of the Rs. 309 plan. Airtel has asked TRAI to act against Jio. Vodafone had approached TRAI earlier this week, saying that Reliance Jio was inviting last-minute subscriptions to the Summer Surprise offer TRAI had asked the company to withdraw.

    Stock in spotlight: Can Fin Homes is up 7% today as its share price hit a new 52 week high. The company released its shareholding details, which showed that institutional holdings in the stock have doubled from 0.67% in December '16 to 1.26% on March 31st, 2017. 

    Photo of the day: A helicopter silhouetted against a full moon. John Locher/AP

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    The Baseline
    11 Apr 2017
    Indian telecom sector revenue falls, anti-dumping duty likely to benefit JSW Steel, SAIL

    Indian telecom sector revenue falls, anti-dumping duty likely to benefit JSW Steel, SAIL

    The annual revenue of Indian telecom firms declined for the first time since 2008-09 to Rs1.88 trillion in 2016-17 (from Rs1.93 trillion the previous year), and will decline further to Rs1.84 trillion in 2017-18, according to CLSA. Revenue per user will fall in 2017-18.  

    The cause is the disruptive pricing and freebies of Reliance Jio, which has forced other telecom companies to cut prices to retain customers. Reliance Jio's entry is also driving consolidation in the sector, with the mergers between Idea-Vodafone and Aircel-RCom. Reliance Jio's free offers grew its subscriber base to 100 million, the most rapid growth seen in the telecom industry. 

    The Indian government body, the Directorate General of Anti-Dumping and Allied Duties (DPAP) has recommended imposing duties on some steel products imported from China, Japan and Russia, despite complaints from some of the targeted countries. The government tends to accept DGAP recommendations, and this is likely to benefit Indian steel companies like JSW Steel, Tata Steel and SAIL. The duties on cold-rolled and hot-rolled flat steel products are likely to be long term, and come even as steel imports have fallen due to new restrictions on imports.  

    Stock in spotlight: Phoenix Mills, which recently formed a joint venture with Canadian pension fund manager CPPIB, is looking to double its mall portfolio with investments of upto Rs. 4,000 crore.

    Photo of the day: An artist puts the finishing touches on a mural of a colorful elephant. Michele Tantussi/AFP/Getty Images

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    The Baseline
    10 Apr 2017
    Religare Enterprises sells stake in health insurance business, DMart shares hit new highs

    Religare Enterprises sells stake in health insurance business, DMart shares hit new highs

    Religare Enterprises' health insurance arm has sold 80% of its stake to investors led by Indian private equity fund True North. The deal, which is pending regulatory approval, values Religare Health Insurance at Rs. 1,300 crore. The deal will fetch Religare approximately Rs1,040 crore. Religare management noted that the acquisition is part of Religare's effort to focus on "core business" in financial services.

    The stake sale comes as the promoters of Religare, the Singh brothers, are fighting a case against Japanese firm Daiichi Sankyo, which had acquired a majority stake in Ranbaxy in 2008, and has accused the Singh brothers in court of hiding crucial information prior to the acquisition. A Singapore tribunal ordered the brothers to pay Daiichi Rs.2,562 crore in damages, which they are contesting in the Delhi High Court.

    Avenue Supermarts (DMart)has gained further today, up over 6% to another record high since markets opened. Large funds are reportedly investing in the stock, driving up the share price beyond expected ceilings, giving a further bonanza to retail investors holding the stock. Based on estimated earnings of the company, the share price has crossed reasonable valuations but continues to climb. 

    Stock in spotlight: Neuland Laboratories hit a new 52 week in the past week, but has received two observations from the USFDA related to quality standards after an inspection of its manufacturing facility in Hyderabad.

    Photo of the day: Kites fly during the 31st International Kite Festival on Thursday. The festival is held every April. Thibault Camus/AP

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    The Baseline
    09 Apr 2017
    Research reports for the week: April 1-8

    Research reports for the week: April 1-8

    Research reports for the first week of April, before final Q4 results start coming out! The summary includes reports from Nirmal Bang, Prabhudas Lilladhar, Motilal Oswal and ICICI Securities. Stock pick of the week from analysts is Vikas Global One (Vikas Ecotech),the chemicals company, which BOB Capital markets estimates has a 40% upside over its current share price.

    The company had fallen in stock price last week on news of a fire accident that broke out at the company's polypropylene manufacturing plant at Shahjahanpur. This was VEL’s newly commissioned plant, and while the building, stocks and machinery were fully insured, the company estimated that approximately 3% of sales revenue could be impacted from the fire. BOB Capital re-affirmed the buy and upside after the event. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-04-07Sintex Industries Limited --%-107.30Nirmal Bang
    2017-04-07Hindustan Oil Exploration Co.. --%-84.00Prabhudas Lilladhar
    2017-04-06Vinati Organics Limited --%Buy724.75Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-04-06Vikas GlobalOne Limited 31.0046.92%Buy21.10BOB Capital Markets Ltd.
    2017-04-05Dr. Lal PathLabs Limited --%Buy965.00Nirmal Bang 1x
    2017-04-05Titan Company Limited 485.00-0.15%NEUT.485.75Motilal Oswal 2x
    1x
    2017-04-05JSW Energy Limited 73.009.94%Buy66.40Motilal Oswal 1x
    2017-04-05Cipla Limited 684.0016.18%Buy588.75Nirmal Bang Institutional 1x
    2x
    2017-04-05V-Mart Retail Limited 778.00-17.07%Hold938.10CD Equisearch
    2017-04-05Rallis India Limited 300.0019.86%Buy250.30ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    1x
    2017-04-05Sobha Limited 415.00-0.13%Hold415.55ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-04V.S.T Tillers Tractors Limited 2117.0016.96%Buy1810.00Karvy 1x
    2017-04-03Indoco Remedies Limited 235.00-1.34%Buy238.20ICICI Securities Limited
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    The Baseline
    07 Apr 2017
    Reliance Jio asked to withdraw extended free offers to customers

    Reliance Jio asked to withdraw extended free offers to customers

    The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) came down on Reliance Jio's most recent freebie plan that extended free offers till June, and asked the telecom operator to withdraw the three months of complimentary benefits provided by the Jio Summer Surprise. “Jio accepts this decision," the company said in a statement. It noted that it is in the process of fully complying with the regulator’s advice, and will be withdrawing the complimentary benefits "as soon as operationally feasible". One point that rival players will not be too happy about is Jio saying that all new customers who subscribed for the Summer Surprise before the discontinuation will still receive the offer. 

    ONGC , IOC and BPCL are planning to move to daily reviews of fuel prices, aligning their processes along with international practices. Prices at petrol pumps as a result, may change every day. This would replace the existing Indian practice of fortnightly revisions of fuel prices. While this policy has been in the offing, the technology that enables it - the automation of filling stations, and digital networks that allow companies to change prices from a single point - have become available recently. Previously, dealers would wait for the fortnightly phone call from regional centres to change prices at their stations.  

    Stock in spotlight: Agri inputs and seeds company Rallis India, which has seen enthusiasm from analysts at HDFC Securities and ICICI Securities, who've given the company share price targets of Rs. 270-300. The company posted decent results in Q3 despite the rural markets taking a hit from demonetization. 

    Photo of the day: A flock of red sheep graze on a hillside in Scotland. The farmer has been dyeing his sheep since 2007, to entertain passing motorists. Jane Barlow/PA

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