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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    14 Oct 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    • Indian Energy Exchange: The current shortage of coal across India has put the focus on power utilities, which in turn led investors to hone in on this power exchange company. Over the past fortnight, the short-term power rates on IEX doubled because of power distribution companies scrambling to meet the power needs of their customers through dipping into the short-term power market. This has led to the company’s stock rising nearly 24% over the past four trading sessions ending Thursday. A recent trigger for the stock’s up move was a long-standing court case finally being settled, which will allow it to introduce long duration electricity delivery contracts for its customers.

    • Motherson Sumi: This auto part maker recently bought a Bengaluru-based company to diversify its presence into the aerospace industry. This is a strategic investment that will allow the company to build its commitment of having revenues of at least 25% from outside the automotive industry in the future. This acquisition will give the  company access to marquee clients in the aerospace sector.

    • Max Healthcare Institute: This company’s promoter entity Kayak Investments Holding Ptepledged 26% of the firm’s outstanding shares as a surety for a credit facility taken by its Singapore-based holding company Kayak Topco Holding. This credit facility of $350 million was taken last week, and also has additional covenants for disposal or creating pledge on an additional 11.69% stake in Max Healthcare. This means the entire shareholding of Kayak Investments is encumbered.

    • Infosys: This IT services major posted decent Q2FY22 earnings, with its net profits nearly 4.4% to Rs 5,421 crore on the back of operating margins of 23.6%. The company’s dollar revenues rose 5.7% QoQ to nearly $4 billion during the quarter. Revenues grew across verticals and the company’s management raised the revenue guidance for FY22 to 16.5%-17.5% from 14-%-16%.

    • Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation: This railway company’s stock hit a 52-week high and shares jumped 141% to Rs 5,505 apiece in less than three months after the board approved a stock split in the ratio of 1:5. The enthusiasm in the street is also because reports suggest that the company’s train ticket bookings have doubled in Q2FY22 ahead of the festive season.

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    The Baseline
    13 Oct 2021
    An uptick in investor activism puts management in the hot seat

    An uptick in investor activism puts management in the hot seat

    By Aakash Athawasya

    Over the past few months, a simmering issue for India’s public market investors burst out into the open. Minority and institutional investors are pushing back against company promoters and the management by voting against shareholders’ resolutions, and in some cases defeating some. 

    In a sign that the Indian equity market is slowly maturing, investor activism against high-profile companies has picked …

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    Over the past few months, a simmering issue for India’s public market investors burst out into the open. Minority and institutional investors are pushing back against company promoters and the management by voting against shareholders’ resolutions, and in some cases defeating some. 

    In a sign that the Indian equity market is slowly maturing, investor activism against high-profile companies has picked up in the past few years. In 2018, Apollo Tyres’ shareholders voted against the salary hike of the company’s Managing Director Neeraj Kanwar in a year when profits fell. Two years ago, investors also voted down the reappointment of Housing Finance Development Corporation’s chairman Deepak Parekh because of his concurrent directorship in seven listed companies at the time. Automobile maker Maruti Suzuki India’s shareholders were against the company transferring its Gujarat plant to a group company through a related party. 

    However, in the past few months cases of investor activism have surged, leaving promoters scurrying for cover in some cases. But what’s actually happening and what does this mean for the Indian equity market? Let’s take a closer look.

    Zee dodges Invesco’s management change attempt

    Run-ins between minority shareholders and promoters happened in fits and starts in the past and Zee Entertainment Enterprises is the latest one.

    The power of non-promoter shareholders is at the forefront of the ongoing dispute between Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Zee) and its largest institutional shareholder — Invesco, which holds Zee shares through Invesco Developing Market Funds and OFI Global China Fund. On September 15, Invesco, which holds an 18% stake in the company, called for a special shareholder’s meeting to remove Punit Goenka, the CEO of Zee and son of Subhash Chandra, the founder of Zee, and two independent directors.

    Even before the  EGM could be held, Zee turned to the Japanese conglomerate Sony to rescue them. On September 23, Zee’s board of directors announced a merger with Sony Pictures Networks India (Sony India). Following the merger, Sony India would hold a 47% stake in the merged entity for $1.5 billion (Rs 11,800 crore).

    As part of the merger agreement,  Goenka would remain at the helm of the merged entity but Sony would appoint the majority of directors to the new board. At the time the deal was penned, Zee’s promoters held a 4% stake in the company. According to the details of the merger with Sony India, Zee’s promoters have the option to increase their stake to 20%. In order to receive this, Zee’s founders will sign a non-compete agreement with the merged entity.

    Activism Zee shareholding

    Once the news of the merger was announced, the outlook for the company, considered a laggard in the broadcasting industry, turned positive. 

    Zee’s stock surged by nearly 80% in two weeks, brokerages changed their tune, and big investors began buying stock. In August, Prabhudas Lilladher cut its earnings per share (EPS) and EBITDA margin estimate on the company due to lower expected advertisement revenue. However, following the merger announcement, the brokerage upped its target price and increased its price to earnings (PE) estimates. In addition, superstar investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala purchased 50 lakh shares of the company a day before the merger announcement was made. Following the announcement, Blackrock purchased 3 lakh shares of Zee in an open market transaction. Just four months earlier, Blackrock had sold 18.8 lakh shares in the company.

    While the institutional investor is not averse to the merger, they are against the current management of Zee. And in order to oust Goenka, Invesco took Zee to the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) to force the company to conduct an EGM in order for a special resolution to pass, removing Goenka. With no headway from the courts, Invesco penned an open letter to Zee’s founders stating the management has “demonstrably destroyed shareholder value” and the merger “unfairly” favours Goenka and the promoters. Now Invesco says that it had earlier brokered a deal with Reliance Industries for a merger with Zee. This was not disclosed by Zee publicly till Invesco’s revelation. 

    This legal ordeal is far from over, but proxy advisory firm IiAS believes it’s all a mere “distraction.” IiAS urges investors to realize that it’s their votes, and not the court’s decision, that will decide the future of Zee, with or without Sony India.

    Jindal Steel’s subsidiary divestment and Siddhartha Lal’s MD pay hike

    The recent surge in investor activism did not start with Zee Entertainment Enterprises or even Eicher Motors, but with Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL). Back in May 2021, following a board of directors’ approval, JSPL decided to divest its 96.4% stake in Jindal Power (JPL) to its promoter controlled entity Worldone for a cash consideration of Rs 3,015 crore. According to this proposal, JSPL would have had to take over JPL’s liabilities worth Rs 4,386 crore. 

    This amount was considered minuscule in comparison to its power generating assets (estimated at Rs 15,000 crore) and its annual net profit (Rs 2,000 crore in FY21. However, JSPL said the reason for the sale was to bring down its overall debt, which was Rs 28,000 crore at the end of FY21.

    Prior to the confirmation of this sale, JSPL held meetings with its major institutional investors including Kotak AMC, Goldman Sachs, IDFC MF, Enam Holding, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, etc. Reports suggest that the sale of a profitable JPL to JSPL at a lower valuation than expected irked investors. Two proxy advisory firms — Institutional Investor Advisory Services (IiAS) and InGovern Research Services (InGovern) advised JSPL’s shareholders to reject the acquisition. 

    Activism JSPL

    In a report, IiAS stated that the rationale to sell JPL to JSPL was unclear as the need to reduce debt was “not an immediate nor necessary concern”. InGovern added that with power demand rising and JPL’s plants fully operational, the company’s outlook is intact. IiAS estimated the enterprise value of JPL to be close to Rs 9,400 crore, or three times the equity consideration offered by JSPL. On the concern of debt reduction, IiAS said the sale of JPL would have reduced JSPL’s cash flows and concluded the overall impact on the parent company’s credit profile will be negligible. 

    These concerns came to light before the company approached shareholders to seek approval on the acquisition between May 21-23. JSPL’s extraordinary general meeting (EGM) was scheduled for May 24. Because of the concerns raised by proxy advisory firms, JSPL postponed the EGM and decided to amend the divestment agreement.

    Another company to see investors scuttling a management decision is Eicher Motors’ salary hike for Managing Director Siddhartha Lal, son of Vikram Lal, the founder of the automobile maker. In August, Eicher Motors’ shareholders rejected the reappointment of Lal as the company’s Managing Director via a special resolution. Over 25% of shareholders were against a 10% hike in Lal’s salary. 

    Proxy advisory firms suggested that executive compensation should be tied to a company’s profitability. And in FY21 Eicher Motors’ net profits declined by 26% and revenue by 5%. Therefore hiking the Managing Director’s salary by 10% was not justified, especially as the company raised the median employee’s salary by under 2%.

    Eicher Motors’ management will approach shareholders again in an EGM seeking reappointment of Lal as Managing Director, with a revised salary payout proposal. However, it looks like institutional shareholders have made their unhappiness known on rising executive pay. Eicher Motors isn’t the only automobile company to see resistance from institutional investors on executive compensation.

    Shareholders miffed by auto industry pay hikes

    Another emerging point of dispute between companies and shareholders was executive compensation. This has boiled over in the automobile industry, with the salaries of top management being rejected by shareholders. The driving force behind the rejections of salary hikes to executives are institutional investors.

    Similar to what happened with Eicher Motors, Institutional investors were miffed by the large salary increases to the executives of other automobile makers, especially following dismal sales during the pandemic-ridden FY21. Domestic mutual funds and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) rejected salary hikes to the executives of Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp (Hero), and Balkrishna Industries. In the case of Bajaj Auto and Hero, more than half of domestic mutual funds and FIIs rejected salary hikes to Rahul Bajaj, Chairman Emeritus at Bajaj Auto Pawan Munjal, Managing Director of Hero. However, since both companies’ promoters account for a significant percentage of the company’s shareholding, the ordinary resolutions passed. 

    Activism auto shareholding

    The concern for investors was that despite falling profits, Hero and Bajaj Auto sought to increase the promoter management’s emoluments. Investors were also concerned about the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and hence the growing threat of smaller companies to the incumbents.

    Activism salary vs profits

    Another concern for shareholders was the difference in the higher pay packages to executives versus employees. In addition to the three two-wheeler makers, salary hikes at Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, and Balkrishna Industries grew as against the hike given to median employees. This is measured by the ratio of the remuneration of the top executive (Managing Director, CEO, Chairman) to the median employee.

    Activism remuneration ratio

    While the resolutions of Bajaj Auto and Hero’s executives sailed through, it didn’t for Eicher Motors’ Managing Director Siddhartha Lal.

    What is driving these bouts of investor activism?

    Over the past year, several issues of poor corporate governance have been met with resistance from shareholders. Whether it was Vedanta’s delisting at a paltry price compared to the value ascertained by advisory firms, compensation packages to executives at Balaji Telefilms, Lupin, or issues with a company’s policies with Burger King India and V-Mart Retail. But why has all of this boiled over in recent months?

    Proxy advisory firms suggest that the main catalyst for institutional investors picking up governance issues is the SEBI's Stewardship Code, issued in December 2019. Under this code, institutional investors should strictly monitor their investee company on “corporate governance, board structure, and diversity, remuneration, capital structure, related party transactions, opportunities or risks including environmental social and governance ("ESG") risks.” This is probably driving institutional investors to look closely at a company’s performance and policies, and preventing companies from sweeping governance issues under the carpet.

    Some proxy advisory firms also suggest the growth of India’s retail base has contributed to investor activism. In FY21, over 1.4 crore dematerialized accounts were opened, which was a three-fold increase over the previous year. However, others believe the thrust of activism is initiated by either proxy advisory firms and institutional investors (due to conducive regulatory framework), as was seen in the case of JSPL, Eicher Motors, and Zee. The advisory firms’ recommendations are heeded by retail investors and enforced through remote voting.

    Regardless of the origin of Indian investors’ activism, institutional investors, retail investors, or proxy advisors, the markets will be better off because of it.

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    The Baseline
    13 Oct 2021
    Chart of the week: FII’s top picks in Q2FY22

    Chart of the week: FII’s top picks in Q2FY22

    Trendlyne Analysis

    In July 2021, foreign institutional investors (or FIIs) sold Rs 11,000 crore worth of Indian equities. Then, in August and September, FIIs purchased Indian equities of over Rs 15,000 crore.

    One of the preferred sectors of FIIs was banks and non-banking financial service companies (NBFCs). In this sector, three companies, Canara Bank, Ujjivan Financial Services, and Aavas Financiers saw a significant QoQ increase in FII holding in Q2FY22. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Government of Singapore, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore purchased nearly 20 lakh shares of Aavas Financiers in the quarter. 

    FIIs also increased their stake in specialty chemical maker Balaji Amines, iron ore producer NMDC, and active pharmaceutical ingredient maker Granules India in the quarter.

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    The Baseline
    10 Oct 2021, 10:39PM
    Stocks outperforming the index ahead of results, with broker upgrades

    Stocks outperforming the index ahead of results, with broker upgrades

    As we enter the September quarter results season, some stocks are beginning to pop with investors, indicating anticipation of a strong Q2. Right now, both analysts and investors are gravitating to one set of companies in particular - those in the technology sector.

    Five of six stocks in this screener (live screener, so stocks will keep updating) filters for three criteria - 1) upcoming results 2) broker upgrade in the past three months and 3) weekly performance beating the Nifty500 - are currently technology stocks. Q2 is a seasonally strong sector for tech, and analysts are expecting a good performance for much of Indian IT. 

    1) Persistent Systems: This tech company is the biggest gainer in the list this past week, rising by over 10% in share price. Persistent has been in the news regarding recent acquisitions and Axis Direct is bullish on the stock, despite its PE of nearly 60. 

    2) Mphasis: The Blackstone-controlled tech company has also been gaining in the past week, with recent buzz around the company's acquisition of US firm Blink, that gives it access to large US tech businesses that are Blink's customers including Facebook and Google. The acquisition has enthused analysts including Prabhudas Liladhar to assign a BUY rating on the stock. It's PE TTM is 47+.

    3) Mindtree: Mindtree has ridden the Covid wave in the past three quarters, with its share price rising over 200% in the past year. Brokerages have been bullish on Mindtree, and Indian software's second tier is expected to continue growing faster than the Tier 1 companies of TCS, Infosys and Wipro. 

    4) Zensar Technologies: Zensar Technologies is a relatively under the radar Indian IT company which has recently been in the upswing since its new CEO Ajay Bhutoria took the reins. The company saw significant momentum in deal wins in the past quarter, as it booked orders worth over $96 million.

    5) Asian Paints: The only non-tech company in this screener is the market leader in the paints industry. Besides its index outperformance and expectations of a strong Q2 ahead of India's festival season, this company has also seen mutual funds raise their holdings in the stock in the past month. 

    See the full screener. This screener will continue to update through the results season. 

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks outperforming the index, …
    10 Oct 2021, 10:34PM

    Stocks outperforming the index, with broker upgrades ahead of results

    Stocks which are outperforming the index, with broker upgrades ahead of their results
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    The Baseline
    08 Oct 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Chemplast Sanmar: This specialty chemical maker’s stock has got institutional investors and rating agencies excited. Earlier this week, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund purchased an additional 81,000 shares in the company. The mutual fund is still holding on to its 29.5 lakh shares that it purchased when the stock was listed on exchanges in August 2021. The chemical maker’s stock listed at a 3% discount, but since then has gained 36%. Rating agency Crisil gave the company’s long term loans an A+ rating with a positive outlook.

    2. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: This PSU oil and gas company’s stock is up by 27% in less than two months amid news of a looming energy crisis. The stock has outperformed O&G peers  — Indian Oil Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation as well as the benchmark Nifty50 in the past year. Even after this rally, its trailing 12-month (TTM) price to earnings (PE) ratio is 4.2 times, against an average PE of 6.4, placing it in the buy-zone.

    3. Tata Motors: This automobile maker’s electric passenger vehicle (electric PV) sales are skyrocketing. In September 2021, the company sold over 1,070 electric PVs, a 3.5X growth over the previous year and a 5% growth over the previous month’s sales. Electric PVs now make up over 4% of its total PV wholesales. In addition to the high electric PV sales, the company’s commercial vehicle wholesales grew by 33% YoY and its internal combustion engine (or ICE) passenger vehicle sales grew by 18% YoY in September.

    4. Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL): This FMCG company’s stock is down by 10% in two weeks despite a positive outlook and an expected management change. Earlier this week, the management said Q2FY22 revenues will grow at a double-digit compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) against Q1FY20 revenues due to higher sales volumes and price hikes. On October 18, former Hindustan Unilever  executive Sudhir Sitapati will take charge of the GCPL as Managing Director and CEO. Since announcing the arrival of Sitapati in May 2021, GCPL’s stock is up by 42%.

    5. Sobha: This real estate company’s sales bookings surged in Q2FY22 and they expect more of the same in H2FY22. In Q2, bookings rose by 49% YoY to Rs 1,032 crore (33% of FY21’s total sales bookings) with a 51% growth in sales volumes to 13 lakh square feet of properties. The company expects the festive season and its new launches to sustain the sales momentum in Q3 and Q4. In the past month, the Nifty Realty index jumped by 25% while Sobha lagged with a 10% growth. However, over the past year, Sobha was the highest gainer among realty stocks as its stock price tripled.

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks with newly published …
    06 Oct 2021

    Stocks with newly published shareholding results

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks in PBV Sell …
    06 Oct 2021

    Stocks in PBV Sell Zone

    Stocks which are in the Sell Zone based on their Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio
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    The Baseline
    06 Oct 2021
    Chart of the week: HDFC Bank's loss is ICICI Bank and SBI Cards' gain

    Chart of the week: HDFC Bank's loss is ICICI Bank and SBI Cards' gain

    In August 2021, the RBI allowed HDFC Bank to issue credit cards after nine months. During this time, ICICI Bank and SBI Cards and Payment Services (State Bank of India's credit card issuer) have grabbed market share at HDFC Bank's expense. 

    In December 2020, HDFC Bank had a 25.2% share of the credit card market (by outstanding credit cards issued). This dropped to 23.1% in August. In that time, ICICI Bank and SBI Cards issued 24.8 lakh and 19.4 lakh credit cards in nine months, increasing their market share to 17.9% and 19.4%, respectively.

    However, it looks like HDFC Bank is now working to close the gap. In the one month since RBI lifted the ban, HDFC Bank issued over 4 lakh credit cards. The largest bank in the country will target adding 5 lakh new credit card customers in the next two quarters.

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    The Baseline
    04 Oct 2021
    Hard to Resist: Five new stocks that are analyst picks despite 100%+ returns

    Hard to Resist: Five new stocks that are analyst picks despite 100%+ returns

    Over the past week, analysts have been picking stocks in a market that has already run up substantially over the past year. Some of these stocks that have emerged as analyst favorites have generated 100% (or close to it) returns over one year, but are among fresh buy calls as September quarter results draw close. 

    1. Dalmia Bharat: This cement company has climbed over 170% in the past year, but gets love from Axis analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi for its falling debt levels and fresh capacity being added. The company has healthy growth in sales volumes, they note, as well as margin expansion driven by product mix optimization, prudent market mix, and cost-efficiency initiatives. "Owing to cost optimization measures, the company’s cost/tonne was reduced by 4.6% YoY," they write. Their target is at Rs. 2450, an upside of 15%+

    2. Bharat Electronics: ICICI Securities is bullish on this aerospace and defence electronics company, which has already gained 109%+ in the past year. There are still gains to be had, they say, noting its order inflow growth, sustained margins and strong order book. "We expect revenue, EBITDA to grow at CAGR of ~14.6%, 11.9%, respectively, in FY21-23E aided by sustained margins in range of 21-22%," analysts Chirag Shah and Amit Anwani write, assigning it a target price of Rs 250, an upside of 22%. 

    3. Piramal Enterprises: Financial company PEL has already had an impressive run up in share price over the past year, gaining over 104%. But its completion of the DHFL acquisition has analysts enthused. Motilal Oswal assigns it a target price of Rs. 3150, an upside of 18%+. "We expect the Financial Services business to deliver ~2.3% RoA/10% RoE over the medium term (post building in the DHFL acquisition)," Abhijit Tibrewal and team write. 

    4. Birlasoft: With strong growth across this IT company's top 20 accounts, Ashika Research says that Birlasoft management remains optimistic for 15% revenue growth in FY22E. Ashika Research analysts give the company a 22% upside on a target price of 485, expecting it to continue rising after its gain over one year of 104%+. 

    5. Varun Beverages: The outlook is strong for this pepsico franchisee, according to analysts. The stock, which has already gained over 95% in the past year, has continued momentum based on a) its growing distribution network, b) rising penetration in the newly acquired region (south and west India), c) diversifying product portfolio, and d) growing refrigerator penetration in rural/and semi-rural areas per household and higher power availability hours. The average broker target for this stock is Rs. 1000 across analysts, an upside of 10%. 

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