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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    10 Oct 2021
    Stocks outperforming the index ahead of results, with broker upgrades

    Stocks outperforming the index ahead of results, with broker upgrades

    As we enter the September quarter results season, some stocks are beginning to pop with investors, indicating anticipation of a strong Q2. Right now, both analysts and investors are gravitating to one set of companies in particular - those in the technology sector.

    Five of six stocks in this screener (live screener, so stocks will keep updating) filters for three criteria - 1) upcoming results 2) broker upgrade in the past three months and 3) weekly performance beating the Nifty500 - are currently technology stocks. Q2 is a seasonally strong sector for tech, and analysts are expecting a good performance for much of Indian IT. 

    1) Persistent Systems: This tech company is the biggest gainer in the list this past week, rising by over 10% in share price. Persistent has been in the news regarding recent acquisitions and Axis Direct is bullish on the stock, despite its PE of nearly 60. 

    2) Mphasis: The Blackstone-controlled tech company has also been gaining in the past week, with recent buzz around the company's acquisition of US firm Blink, that gives it access to large US tech businesses that are Blink's customers including Facebook and Google. The acquisition has enthused analysts including Prabhudas Liladhar to assign a BUY rating on the stock. It's PE TTM is 47+.

    3) Mindtree: Mindtree has ridden the Covid wave in the past three quarters, with its share price rising over 200% in the past year. Brokerages have been bullish on Mindtree, and Indian software's second tier is expected to continue growing faster than the Tier 1 companies of TCS, Infosys and Wipro. 

    4) Zensar Technologies: Zensar Technologies is a relatively under the radar Indian IT company which has recently been in the upswing since its new CEO Ajay Bhutoria took the reins. The company saw significant momentum in deal wins in the past quarter, as it booked orders worth over $96 million.

    5) Asian Paints: The only non-tech company in this screener is the market leader in the paints industry. Besides its index outperformance and expectations of a strong Q2 ahead of India's festival season, this company has also seen mutual funds raise their holdings in the stock in the past month. 

    See the full screener. This screener will continue to update through the results season. 

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks outperforming the index, …
    10 Oct 2021

    Stocks outperforming the index, with broker upgrades ahead of results

    Stocks which are outperforming the index, with broker upgrades ahead of their results
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    The Baseline
    08 Oct 2021, 09:05AM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Chemplast Sanmar: This specialty chemical maker’s stock has got institutional investors and rating agencies excited. Earlier this week, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund purchased an additional 81,000 shares in the company. The mutual fund is still holding on to its 29.5 lakh shares that it purchased when the stock was listed on exchanges in August 2021. The chemical maker’s stock listed at a 3% discount, but since then has gained 36%. Rating agency Crisil gave the company’s long term loans an A+ rating with a positive outlook.

    2. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: This PSU oil and gas company’s stock is up by 27% in less than two months amid news of a looming energy crisis. The stock has outperformed O&G peers  — Indian Oil Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation as well as the benchmark Nifty50 in the past year. Even after this rally, its trailing 12-month (TTM) price to earnings (PE) ratio is 4.2 times, against an average PE of 6.4, placing it in the buy-zone.

    3. Tata Motors: This automobile maker’s electric passenger vehicle (electric PV) sales are skyrocketing. In September 2021, the company sold over 1,070 electric PVs, a 3.5X growth over the previous year and a 5% growth over the previous month’s sales. Electric PVs now make up over 4% of its total PV wholesales. In addition to the high electric PV sales, the company’s commercial vehicle wholesales grew by 33% YoY and its internal combustion engine (or ICE) passenger vehicle sales grew by 18% YoY in September.

    4. Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL): This FMCG company’s stock is down by 10% in two weeks despite a positive outlook and an expected management change. Earlier this week, the management said Q2FY22 revenues will grow at a double-digit compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) against Q1FY20 revenues due to higher sales volumes and price hikes. On October 18, former Hindustan Unilever  executive Sudhir Sitapati will take charge of the GCPL as Managing Director and CEO. Since announcing the arrival of Sitapati in May 2021, GCPL’s stock is up by 42%.

    5. Sobha: This real estate company’s sales bookings surged in Q2FY22 and they expect more of the same in H2FY22. In Q2, bookings rose by 49% YoY to Rs 1,032 crore (33% of FY21’s total sales bookings) with a 51% growth in sales volumes to 13 lakh square feet of properties. The company expects the festive season and its new launches to sustain the sales momentum in Q3 and Q4. In the past month, the Nifty Realty index jumped by 25% while Sobha lagged with a 10% growth. However, over the past year, Sobha was the highest gainer among realty stocks as its stock price tripled.

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks with newly published …
    06 Oct 2021

    Stocks with newly published shareholding results

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks in PBV Sell …
    06 Oct 2021

    Stocks in PBV Sell Zone

    Stocks which are in the Sell Zone based on their Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio
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    The Baseline
    06 Oct 2021
    Chart of the week: HDFC Bank's loss is ICICI Bank and SBI Cards' gain

    Chart of the week: HDFC Bank's loss is ICICI Bank and SBI Cards' gain

    In August 2021, the RBI allowed HDFC Bank to issue credit cards after nine months. During this time, ICICI Bank and SBI Cards and Payment Services (State Bank of India's credit card issuer) have grabbed market share at HDFC Bank's expense. 

    In December 2020, HDFC Bank had a 25.2% share of the credit card market (by outstanding credit cards issued). This dropped to 23.1% in August. In that time, ICICI Bank and SBI Cards issued 24.8 lakh and 19.4 lakh credit cards in nine months, increasing their market share to 17.9% and 19.4%, respectively.

    However, it looks like HDFC Bank is now working to close the gap. In the one month since RBI lifted the ban, HDFC Bank issued over 4 lakh credit cards. The largest bank in the country will target adding 5 lakh new credit card customers in the next two quarters.

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    The Baseline
    04 Oct 2021
    Hard to Resist: Five new stocks that are analyst picks despite 100%+ returns

    Hard to Resist: Five new stocks that are analyst picks despite 100%+ returns

    Over the past week, analysts have been picking stocks in a market that has already run up substantially over the past year. Some of these stocks that have emerged as analyst favorites have generated 100% (or close to it) returns over one year, but are among fresh buy calls as September quarter results draw close. 

    1. Dalmia Bharat: This cement company has climbed over 170% in the past year, but gets love from Axis analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi for its falling debt levels and fresh capacity being added. The company has healthy growth in sales volumes, they note, as well as margin expansion driven by product mix optimization, prudent market mix, and cost-efficiency initiatives. "Owing to cost optimization measures, the company’s cost/tonne was reduced by 4.6% YoY," they write. Their target is at Rs. 2450, an upside of 15%+

    2. Bharat Electronics: ICICI Securities is bullish on this aerospace and defence electronics company, which has already gained 109%+ in the past year. There are still gains to be had, they say, noting its order inflow growth, sustained margins and strong order book. "We expect revenue, EBITDA to grow at CAGR of ~14.6%, 11.9%, respectively, in FY21-23E aided by sustained margins in range of 21-22%," analysts Chirag Shah and Amit Anwani write, assigning it a target price of Rs 250, an upside of 22%. 

    3. Piramal Enterprises: Financial company PEL has already had an impressive run up in share price over the past year, gaining over 104%. But its completion of the DHFL acquisition has analysts enthused. Motilal Oswal assigns it a target price of Rs. 3150, an upside of 18%+. "We expect the Financial Services business to deliver ~2.3% RoA/10% RoE over the medium term (post building in the DHFL acquisition)," Abhijit Tibrewal and team write. 

    4. Birlasoft: With strong growth across this IT company's top 20 accounts, Ashika Research says that Birlasoft management remains optimistic for 15% revenue growth in FY22E. Ashika Research analysts give the company a 22% upside on a target price of 485, expecting it to continue rising after its gain over one year of 104%+. 

    5. Varun Beverages: The outlook is strong for this pepsico franchisee, according to analysts. The stock, which has already gained over 95% in the past year, has continued momentum based on a) its growing distribution network, b) rising penetration in the newly acquired region (south and west India), c) diversifying product portfolio, and d) growing refrigerator penetration in rural/and semi-rural areas per household and higher power availability hours. The average broker target for this stock is Rs. 1000 across analysts, an upside of 10%. 

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    The Baseline
    01 Oct 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Hindustan Unilever: This FMCG major’s stock saw three target price upgrades from analysts over the past month as they are enthused about the company’s prospects in Q2FY22. This confidence stems from resilient rural demand due to a good rabi harvesting season, rise in minimum support prices and an uptick in kharif sowing. The increased mobility across the country will also lead to a rise in demand for the company’s products, which will lead to decent growth, according to analysts.

    2. JSW Energy: The expectation of reforms in the power sector sent this power utility stock flying over the past month and touched a 52-week high on Thursday. So much so that, based on technical indicators like RSI and MFI, this stock is now the most overbought stock among the Nifty 500 companies. The stock is currently trading above all its simple moving averages.

    3. Bharat Forge: For the first time, a promoter group firm pledged shares of this company. This forging company’s promoter group firm Sundaram Trading And Investmentpledged nearly 3.44% of its stake in the firm to cover corporate guarantees given by a promoter group company to lenders.

    4. Coal India: With industrial activity picking up in India, this state-owned coal miner’s stock is back on investor’s radar. There is a shortage of supply of coal globally as many countries are looking to coal to run their power plants. A spike in natural gas prices is fueling this switch towards coal globally to run power plants due to an energy crisis. The expectation among investors seems to be that the shortage of coal will drive e-auction prices higher in India, despite Coal India’s assertions that it will ramp up production. Coal India might also plan price hikes on dry fuel to mitigate higher costs. Essentially, in an era of heightened attention towards climate change, good old coal seems to be the most reliable fuel.

    5. SBI Life Insurance: This life insurance company expects FY22 to be among the best years for its business in the past few years. According to a report by Motilal Oswal, the management in a recent interaction at an investor conference said that new business picked up in Q2FY22 as reflected in its robust operating metrics in the months of July and August. The company said at the conference that business is expected to grow in double digits in FY22.

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    The Baseline
    30 Sep 2021
    Chart of the week: Big IPO winners of FY22 (so far)

    Chart of the week: Big IPO winners of FY22 (so far)

    Investors are loving the initial public offering (IPO) season.  In FY22 so far, 22 companies across sectors like real estate, auto-components, specialty chemicals, and food tech have listed on public markets. 

    Among these, only five companies' stock prices are trading at twice the issue price - Clean Science & Technology, GR Infraprojects, Macrotech Developers, Ami Organics, and Tatva Chintan Pharma Chem. 

    Four companies listed at a discount to the issue price - CarTrade Tech, Windlas Biotech, Aptus Value Housing Finance, and Macrotech Developers. Of the companies that listed at a discount, only Macrotech Developers' stock managed to change course, while the rest are trading below their issue price.

    With share sales from several big businesses lined up for the second half of FY22, IPO season is far from over.

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    The Baseline created a screener Highest Piotroski Scores - …
    25 Sep 2021

    Highest Piotroski Scores - Nifty500 companies that score 9/9

    Screener tracking stocks with a High Piotroski Score (the well-known piotroski score checks the company's financial strength). To get notified of changes to the screener, set an alert.
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