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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    12 Sep 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Sobha: For the first time in FY22, this real estate company’s insiders are selling shares. And it’s not just any insider, but the company’s Managing Director. On September 3, JC Sharma, the Managing Director of Sobha sold 30,000 shares worth Rs 2.1 crore in an insider trade, during a week when the stock jumped over 30%. Then, on September 7, he sold another 8,000 shares for Rs 65.3 lakhs in another insider trade. The last time a promoter, promoter group, key managerial personnel, or an institutional investor sold the company’s shares was during the first Covid-19 wave in April 2020 when L&T Mutual Fund sold over 21 lakh shares (2.2% stake). Since then, the stock is up by 4.5X.

    2. NOCIL: Brokers are gushing about this specialty chemical manufacturing company. Three brokerages — Axis Direct, Prabhudas Lilladher, and Motilal Oswal gave it a ‘Buy’ rating with an 11% target price. Axis Direct in a note expects the company’s rubber chemicals division to receive a boost due to the resurgent demand for tyres domestically. The average broker target price is at an upside of 26%.

    3. Blue Dart Express: This logistics company’s stock is rallying with cheap valuations despite Superstar investors taking profits. In one month, the stock is up by nearly 16%. However, it remains historically cheap as its trailing 12-month price to earnings (PE) ratio is 58.5 times compared to an average PE of 85.5 times, putting it in the buy zone. In the June 2021 quarter, Radhakishan Damani’s Bright Start Investments sold 67,000 shares in the company, reducing its stake by 0.28% sequentially.

    4. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise: This healthcare company’s promoters have resumed pledging shares. On September 6, the company’s promoter K Vishweshwar Reddy pledged 70,000 shares worth Rs 35 crore. This is the second time Reddy pledged the company’s shares in FY22. Back in April 2021, he pledged 2 lakh shares worth Rs 58 crore. In Q1FY22, 29.9% of the promoter’s shareholding was locked in pledges, a 200 basis points increase sequentially. This was the first time, promoter’s pledges increased sequentially since Q3FY20.

    5. Greaves Cotton: This engineering company is set to strengthen its position in the electric vehicles market. On September 9, it launched a multi-brand retail store for electric two wheelers, three wheelers, and automotive components. The company already has a strong base in the electric scooter market through its wholly-owned subsidiary Ampere Vehicles. Brokerages value Ampere Vehicles at Rs 1,800 crore and expect it to generate Rs 400 crore in sales by FY23 or 20% of the company’s total expected revenue.

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    The Baseline
    09 Sep 2021
    Chart of the week: Hero stumbles while others see two-wheeler sales rise

    Chart of the week: Hero stumbles while others see two-wheeler sales rise

    As economic activity ramps up, spending on two-wheelers is up. Since the peak of India's second Covid-19 wave, two-wheeler wholesales rose by nearly 82%. 

    However, the increase is not consistent across two-wheeler makers. For the market leader Hero MotoCorp, two-wheeler wholesales fell consecutively in July and August. But Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors' Royal Enfield saw wholesales rise between May and August 2021.

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    The Baseline created a screener Brokerage Buy Calls and …
    06 Sep 2021

    Brokerage Buy Calls and Buy/Sell Zone

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    The Baseline
    06 Sep 2021
    Five analyst stock picks this week

    Five analyst stock picks this week

    1. Jubilant Foodworks: There's plenty to be jubilant about Jubilant Foodworks, according to Motilal Oswal, which gives the company an upside of 17% on a price target of Rs. 4830. "In addition to its delivery and value moat, Jubilant Foodworks is boosting its technological moat to enhance its lead over its QSR peers and aggregators," analysts Krishnan Sambamoorthy and team note. "Given the structural opportunities in the QSR space and JUBI's dominant positioning, with a proven and profitable model, we expect it to be the key beneficiary of favorable trends (shift towards branded players)."

    2. Easy Trip: For ICICI Securities, this newly listed online travel platform is a buy, with a target price of Rs 600 - an upside of 25%. "It is the fastest growing and only profitable company among online travel portals in India," analyst Rashesh Shah writes. He notes key drivers of long term growth of Easy Trip and online travel: "(1) Increased adoption of internet platforms in under-penetrated segments such as hotels, international travel and buses, (2) growth in demand in air and hotel segments due to rising income levels and (3) deeper penetration of travel into lower tier towns."

    3. Bajaj Auto: In the auto sector, it is Bajaj Auto that is speeding away with the prize, according to Axis, which gives the stock an upside of 13%+ on a target price of Rs. 4250. "Prudent cost management by the company led to margin expansion," analyst Darshan Gangar says, "BA’s exports business is doing better than ever, which helped it cover for the weakness in the domestic market. EV business and Triumph partnership will be the key future growth drivers moving forward."

    4. Exide Industries: Geojit is bullish on this battery storage company, giving it an upside of 16% on a target of Rs. 220. "Despite 20% increase in the lead price for the quarter, stringent cost control measures led the PAT to grow by 185% YoY," analyst Saji John observes. "The overall demand scenario is showing sign of pick up due to cyclicality. We expect the margin to show some resilience going forward due to cost optimization." Some risks remain, however. "We factor 140bps lower margin from our early estimate due to lower supply of raw material and demand normalization in the after market segment."

    5. Nazara Technologies: Prabhudas Lilladhar has pressed play on this gaming company, initiating coverage with a bullish buy call - an upside of 29% on a target price of Rs. 2342. Analysts Jinesh Joshi and Shweta Shekhawat write, "Nazara is India’s only listed gaming company with no competitive benchmarking. As business model is scalable and focus is on growth, we don’t rule out intermittent volatility in profitability."

    But still, they insist, the company is a good investment. "We believe that a portfolio approach to gaming eliminates shelf life risks, as the business model can be altered depending on technological advancements and changing taste of consumers. With net cash balance sheet of Rs 4.8bn, Nazara has plans to expand its gaming portfolio inorganically which offers distinct option value."

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    The Baseline
    02 Sep 2021
    Some auto execs see big jumps in pay, despite downturn

    Some auto execs see big jumps in pay, despite downturn

    FY21 was a tough year for automobile original equipment manufacturers (or auto OEMs) due to the pandemic and lockdowns. However, it was a good year for some auto OEMs' executives. Three of the top four listed two-wheeler makers' Managing Directors' (MD) remuneration ratios jumped in FY21 (The remuneration ratio is the ratio of the salary of a company's top management to the median employee's).  

    As per Eicher Motors' annual report,  MD Siddhartha Lal's salary was Rs 21.1 crore in FY21, or 340 times the salary of the median employee. This was an increase from 311 times the median salary in FY20. Meanwhile, Eicher Motors' net profits in FY21 fell by 26%.

    Rajiv Bajaj, MD of Bajaj Auto, received an annual salary of Rs 40.5 crore (621 times the median salary), and Pawan Munjal received an annual salary of Rs 86.9 crore (826 times the median salary). Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp's FY21 net profits fell by 7% and 20%, respectively.

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    The Baseline
    01 Sep 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Adani Transmission: This power transmission company’s stock rose 74.7% over the last month and is currently the most overbought stock out of the Nifty500 stocks. It is strongly overvalued according to technical indicators like RSI over 70 and MFI and is trading above all the simple moving averages. This company’s shares are the best performing in the Nifty 500.

    2. AU Small Finance Bank: This small finance bank has seen high level exits over the past few months, and now its head of internal audit Sumit Dhir resigned for personal reasons. The company’s management clarified that it is still in discussions with him to retain his services. This dragged the company’s stock down by 12% on Tuesday as investors were jittery about another high level exit after the bank’s Chief Risk Officer Alok Gupta quit in July, a few months after taking up his position. The bank said there have been no other exits from top management apart from these two.

    3. PI Industries: This agrochemical company has impressed analysts with six brokerages upgrading their target prices for the company’s shares of the past one month. In Q1FY22, the company posted a 12.6% rise in revenues to Rs 1,194 crore and net profit was up 22.3% YoY to Rs 187.2 crore. On a sequential basis, revenues were flat, and profits rose by 4.1.%  Analysts are enthused by the company’s foray into the pharmaceutical space by acquiring Ind-Swift Laboratories’ active pharmaceutical ingredients business for nearly Rs 1,530 core. 

    4. Infibeam Avenues: This fintech company’s rose nearly 19% and ended trade at Rs 47.35 and saw its weekly volumes rise nearly four times its weekly average of 82 lakh shares. This is a stock volatile over the past 4-5 months as it has hovered between Rs 39-55 for the past one year, with many ups and downs. The stock crossed all its simple moving averages on Tuesday.

    5. Max Healthcare Institute: This hospital chain company’s stock rose nearly 15% in two sessions at the end of Tuesday and touched a new 52-week high of Rs 398.85, before ending at Rs 386.10. The company announced on Friday, after market hours, that its subsidiary bought the rights to develop a 500-bed hospital at Saket in South Delhi. The land on which the hospital will be built is situated between two of its existing hospitals in that area. Once all its facilities are integrated in Saket, Max Healthcare will have amongst the largest healthcare complexes in Asia with an over 2,300 bed integrated facility in Saket by 2024.

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    The Baseline created a screener Multiple broker buy calls …
    31 Aug 2021

    Multiple broker buy calls over the past year

    Stocks with multiple broker buys over the past year
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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks with buy calls …
    31 Aug 2021

    Stocks with buy calls from brokerages, promoter shareholding increase and low volatility

    Low volatility stocks with buy calls and increase in promoter shareholding
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    The Baseline
    30 Aug 2021
    Five analyst stock picks this week

    Five analyst stock picks this week

    Every week, Trendlyne picks five interesting buy calls made by analysts. 

    1) Steel Strip Wheels: "Exponential growth on the anvil," is what Axis Direct analysts say about this auto ancillary company, giving it an upside of 13%+ on a target price of Rs 2122. "We continue to like the growth story of the company driven by increasing contribution from the PV exports and Al-alloy wheels," analyst Sneha Prashant writes, "Furthermore, the company is positive about the domestic revival of the CV industry which has been down for the past two years. The company envisages the CV industry to contribute about Rs 500-800 Cr to the topline as the cycle turns around."

    2) P&G Health: This pharma and OTC company gets a thumbs up from ICICI Direct analysts, with an upside of 18.3% on a target price of Rs. 6555. PGHL, previously known as Merck, has multiple legacy brands in its stable including Seven Seas. "The key differentiator for PGHL is that its core category is Vitamins/Minerals/Supplements," analysts Siddhanth Khandekar and Mitesh Shah write, "which, as a therapeutic category, is likely to be rediscovered due to increased awareness post the current pandemic." Volatility in margins, they note, remains a key risk. 

    3) Bajaj Finance: A former multibagger is back in the good books for Motilal Oswal, with analysts noting a key event for this NBFC: Bajaj Finserv has got an in-principle approval from SEBI for sponsoring a Mutual Fund (MF). This, analysts Abhijit Tibrewal and team note, is likely to benefit the entire BajFin group, and they give Bajaj Finance an upside of 10.5% on a target price of Rs. 7,700. "Increasing per capita income, the gradual financialization of savings, a growing awareness with targeted marketing campaigns such as ‘Mutual Funds Sahi Hai’, and improving reach with digital platforms, will lead to strong AUM growth ahead."

    4) Cadila Healthcare: The approval of Cadila Healthcare's needle-less ZyCov-D Covid19 vaccine has triggered a buy call from Prabhudas Lilladhar, with an upside of 26%+ on a share price of Rs.695. "Thermo-stability (2-8 degree temperature for storage) of the vaccine helps in easing storage and transportation costs," analysts Surajit Pal and Akshaya Shinde write, "Stock filling of the vaccine and commercial supply across India will commence in Oct’21, with an annual manufacturing capacity of 100-120mn doses from the newly built vaccine plant."

    5) Transpek Industry: This chemicals company has caught the eye of analysts at BPWealth, with an upside of 32%+ on a target price of Rs. 2714. "A long-term contract with an MNC client helped the company deliver stellar growth in topline and bottom-line in FY19 and FY20, resulting in higher sales concentration from the polymer business," they say. "Management is looking to reduce this dependence over 2-3 years, "by launching 4-5 new products and increasing applications of existing products in non-polymer segments (mainly pharma and agrochemicals)."

    See all analyst buy calls here.

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    The Baseline
    24 Aug 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Eicher Motors: Troubles are brewing at the helm of this two wheeler and commercial vehicle maker. On August 13, Vinod Dasari, the CEO and Executive Director of the company stepped down just two years after he took charge of the company. Last week, during the company’s annual general meeting (AGM), shareholders voted against the reappointment of the company’s former Managing Director Siddhartha Lal. According to reports, shareholders opposed a 10% hike in Lal’s salary due to the impact of the pandemic on the automobile maker. On August 23, the board reappointed Lal as Managing Director subject to public shareholder’s approval.

    2. Escorts: This tractor maker’s stock is up by 12% in one month reaching its highest point in FY22. In Q1FY22, the company’s revenue jumped by 57% YoY to Rs 1,671 crore, with net profits doubling to Rs 185 crore on improved demand for tractors. With a trailing 12-month price to earnings (PE) ratio of 18.2, against an average PE of 26.2, it remains in the neutral zone.

    3. Marico: This FMCG company reported its highest ever quarterly sales in Q1FY22 despite the pandemic suppressing demand in its rural market. Its EBITDA margins expanded by 2.8 percentage points QoQ in Q1FY22 to 19.9% due to falling input costs. The management expects input costs to fall further in Q2 and Q3. However, price hikes that were enforced to deal with rising input costs will not be called off. Analysts expect this to help the company’s bottom line in the coming quarters.

    4. PVR: Brokerages are concerned this cinema operator is unlikely to recover even as commercial activity ramps up. In a note, Geojit BNP Paribas lowered its target price on the stock to a 2% upside. The brokerage said the movie pipeline in Q2FY22 is lack lustered as many production houses have delayed launches to the second half of FY22. As of August 2021, only 63% of its screens were operational.

    5. Asian Paints: After five months, mutual funds are now buying this paints company’s stock. In July 2021, mutual funds purchased 8.2 lakh shares in the company, increasing their holding in the company by 3.1% on a monthly basis. Between February to June, mutual funds sold 35.2 lakh shares, decreasing their holding in the company by 15%. In the past year, mutual funds were net buyers of the company’s stock in only two months — January and July 2021.

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