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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    11 Jan 2017
    A Turbulent Year: Best Books on Investing for 2017

    A Turbulent Year: Best Books on Investing for 2017

    2017, analysts predict, is going to take the ups and downs of 2016 and throw them into a blender. The incoming Trump administration in the US is likely to upend long-established global trade equations, as the new President comes in with a different set of friends and foes. We will be seeing a US President who is the friendliest towards Russia in decades, anti-trade and pro-tariffs, antagonistic towards China, and lukewarm at best and hostile at worst to long-standing agreements like NAFTA and NATO. And is also on social media a lot, issuingboth angry threats and praise from his twitter feed. 

    In continental Europe, the impact of Brexit will begin to have its effects as the EU starts acting to push Britain out of the Union. In China, new tensions may be emerging between the country and neighbors like Taiwan, while India is recovering from the effects of demonetization, and prepares to implement the GST. 

    The phrase, 'may you live in interesting times' is rarely more than a mixed blessing. 2017 looks to be that kind of time, and investors preparing for turbulent markets will be looking for counsel and sage advice. What are the best investing books for times like this? We compiled a list of five, consisting of old stand-bys and some new entrants. 

    5) THE DHANDHO INVESTOR, Mohnish Pabrai. Finally an investing book from India worth its salt, and a compelling read. Dhandho is the strategy, Pabrai says, used by the Patels in Gujarat to maximize their returns on their earnings. His advice focuses on identifying a select few, good companies when others are selling them. His advice on making a few BIG investments on companies that are unfairly under-valued due to bad news or sharp market dips, may be especially useful for stock investing in India post-demonetization.

    4) ONE UP ON WALL STREET, Peter Lynch. Peter Lynch's book is highly tailored to the small, individual investor willing to do their homework rather than play the ups and downs of the market. He details out many useful strategies for investors to do their homework on stocks and identify the multi-baggers that will give them good returns, regardless of the health of the overall stock market.It's a good, sobering reminder that in the stock market, as anywhere else, it's hard work that pays off. 

    3)STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN, Jeremy Siegel.  Siegel teaches at Wharton, and makes the case for investing not for the day or the week but for the long run, which he argues results in stocks giving you returns beating all other assets, and protecting against inflation. Useful advice for a period where the short-term may be up and down, but the longer outlook more stable.

    2)THE BROKE AND BEAUTIFUL LIFE, Stefani O'Connor is more personal finance than investing, but is a useful and practical book for young investors, one that provides advice in making smarter decisions and setting effective budget goals. It helps for both tighter budgets and effective financial planning, especially during unpredictable income shifts. 

    1)IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE, Robert Shiller: This may be THE book for 2017, since it argues that stock markets can go both irrationally high and irrationally low at times of high emotion and panic. Shiller, who won a Nobel Prize in 2013, argues that what drives stock prices is not an understanding of future dividends and growth, but psychology. Shiller's advice is good to remember when you are staring at a market crash or a full speed rise fuelled by rumor and headlines.

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    The Baseline
    11 Jan 2017
    The biggest sales drop in 16 years, says auto industry

    The biggest sales drop in 16 years, says auto industry

    • The biggest sales drop in 16 years: It looks like auto as an industry has taken the brunt of demonetization. As companies released their sales figures for December, it became clear that the drop has been substantial.  Sales fell 18.66 percent in December to 1.2 million units, the biggest monthly drop since the same month in 2000, according to the  Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Few categories such as Maruti's SUVs logged an increase in sales. The biggest overall drop has been in small towns and rural areas, where cash dominates. 

    • The telecom war intensified today with Airtel turning on TRAI, accusing it of deliberately favoring Reliance's Jio by remaining a mute spectator on Jio's "predatory pricing" and the extension of the free plans. Telecom players are concerned about Mukesh Ambani's deep cash kitty, with Reliance enriched by deep gas and oil refining margins which allows Ambani to dole out freebies, drawing subscribers away from the competition. TRAI had initially said that Jio would have to end its  free welcome offers by 3 December as inaugural offers are only valid for 90 days. However, TRAI gave Jio a nod for its Happy New Year plan which separately extended free offers till March 2017.  There have been recent suggestions from Reliance that they may extend the free offers even further, beyond March. 

    • Stock in spotlight: BPCL. The stock is trending up in markets, with a 79% gain from its 52 week low. The company's expansion in Kochi, Numaligarh and improvements in Bina is expected to strengthen a GRM that is already the most efficient in the industry.

    • Photo of the day: A four month old tiger owned by a travelling circus in Germany is taken for a walk. Jens Buttner/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    10 Jan 2017

    Biocon's $7 billion bet

    Last week, Biocon and Mylan announced successful trials for their biosimilar trastuzumab. The two companies have been working together to jointly develop a biosimilar trastuzumab, which treats metastatic breast cancer. The successful trials for the product came as part of a Heritage study, which showed biosimilar trastuzumab working as well as the branded trastuzumab product Herceptin sold by Roche. 

    Biocon-Mylan is an early filer for the trastuzumab biosimilar in the EU and US markets. Four other players (excluding Biocon) are also  in advanced stages to develop the biosimilar, raising the possibility of intense competition for the market. But Herceptin is a US$7bn drug globally and Biocon-Mylan is an early filer, making a quick payoff here pretty likely - when asked about the potential, Julie Knell, spokesperson for Mylan, said that  their product "has the potential to be the first submission of..biosimilar trastuzumab in the US."

    A new drug from Roche

    However, recent developments in metastatic breast cancer treatment have queered the field. Roche is conducting an Aphinity trial for a combination drug for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, which combines a synthetic compound pertuzumab (Perjeta) with the older Herceptin - trastuzumab. The trial is likely to be successful - early data points from the trial suggest that the incidence of invasive disease for patients enrolled in the trial have been lower than expected. Roche has also recently received a boost when the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK published its final guidance this week on January 3, which has endorsed the use of Perjeta (pertuzumab), in combination with trastuzumab and chemotherapy. 

    What does this mean for Biocon's market?

    Despite the possibility that Biocon and Mylan could get 180-day exclusivity with this drug in the US as first filer (biosimilar trastuzumab is already being sold in developing country markets including India), the likely success of the combination drug trials and the launch of Roche's new combination drug will limit the market size for the biosimilar.

    The chances are high that 1) Roche will subsidize Herceptin, now that it has a new, expensive drug in the market to help it recoup research costs and profits. This will limit the success of Biocon-Mylan's biosimilar trastuzumab and bring sales down. 

    2) The treatment capacity of the new combination drug will set a new bar for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, and demand for Herceptin and its biosimilars will shrink, reducing the overall market. Roche will remain the dominant player for this treatment until a new better alternative emerges. How this impacts Biocon's outlook for FY17 and FY18 remains to be seen, as the company updates its forecasts. 

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    The Baseline
    10 Jan 2017
    Binny Bansal out as Flipkart CEO, Tiger Global's Krishnamurthy in

    Binny Bansal out as Flipkart CEO, Tiger Global's Krishnamurthy in

    • The BSE wants to challenge global stock exchanges for dominance with a new, near-24 hour International Exchange. The exchange will directly compete with financial hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong, through tech investments and "near 24-hour trading", remaining open for 22 hours. CEO Ashishkumar Chauhan said the new bourse, which has been inaugurated in Gujarat's Finance Tec-City, would offer a response time of four microseconds, making it "one of the fastest, if not the fastest, exchanges in the world".

    • A shakeup has resulted in the sidelining of the Bansals at e-commerce giant Flipkart. Kalyan Krishnamurthy, a former managing director of Tiger Global who had joined Flipkart in June 2015, was named the new CEO, and current CEO Binny Bansal has been named to a new role of group CEO. While Flipkart positioned the group CEO role to journalists as a move upward for Binny Bansal, sources internally said that Bansal saw the role as a clear signal that he was having core operational responsibilities taken away, and being handed to Tiger. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Ramco Systems, a company that builds cloud software for enterprises, and has signed new deals with Panasonic and the US firm G&D Integrated. 

    • Photo of the day: Hong Kong badminton player Cheung Ngan Yi reacts after losing a point against Indian badminton player Saina Nehwal during the women's singles at a Premier Badminton League (PBL) in Bangalore. Nehwal won the match 9-11, 11-5, 11-3. Aijaz Rahi/AP

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    The Baseline
    09 Jan 2017
    Urjit Patel summoned by Parliamentary Committee

    Urjit Patel summoned by Parliamentary Committee

    • A parliamentary committee is examining the government's decision to scrap high-value bank notes, and has sent the country's central bank governor a list of questions on the demonetisation process. It has asked him to appear before it on Jan. 20. In the meantime, PM Modi made a public speech saying that the 'high priests of black money' have opposed him on demonetization. 

    • Maruti Suzuki reported its sales numbers for December today, which showed a marginal decline in sales by 0.4% compared to December last year, as customers postpone purchases amid the cash crunch. The biggest drop was in the sales of Altos and Wagon Rs, while sales of SUVs, more than doubled compared to last December.

    • Stock in spotlight: BEML tops the gainer stocks today, up 15.8% since market open. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has given in-principal approval for the disinvestment of 26 per cent of the government's 54.03 per cent equity stake in the company. 

    • Photo of the day: A life size model of a dinosaur covered in snow in Romania. Vadim Ghirda/AP

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    The Baseline
    08 Jan 2017
    Research Reports for the week: January 1-6

    Research Reports for the week: January 1-6

    Analysts are ramping up for the results week coming up, but some research reports still landed, with PVR Cinemas in spotlight - with a BUY recommendation in light of a lower than expected demonetization effect. Additionally, the Hindi film Dangal boosted box office collections to approximately INR2.4 bn until 31 December 2016 in domestic sales, which is expected to drive up earnings for the Deember quarter. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-01-06CCL Products (India) Limited 329.0024.39%Buy264.50Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-01-04AIA Engineering Limited 1102.0013.23%Sell1270.00CD Equisearch
    2017-01-03PVR Limited 1429.0020.60%Buy1184.95Motilal Oswal
    2017-01-03Sintex Industries Limited 106.0029.11%Buy82.10Karvy
    2017-01-03Alkem Laboratories Limited 1989.0020.18%Buy1655.00Angel Broking 1x
    2017-01-02Manappuram Finance Limited 74.003.50%Buy71.50Axis Direct
    2017-01-02Rallis India Limited 250.0022.43%Buy204.20ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    1x
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    The Baseline
    06 Jan 2017
    MyMoney Series: 'Demonetization made me realize how privileged I am'

    MyMoney Series: 'Demonetization made me realize how privileged I am'

    This week on our MyMoney series, we talk to Sushmita Sundaram, a marketing/communications manager based out of Bangalore. Sushmita says that her biggest challenge has been planning her savings towards long-term goals.  

    "One of my goals for 2017 is to be more aware of my spending and saving habits. I definitely don't save as much as I could - every month, I end up saving about 10-20% of my take home salary, and it just sits in my savings account.

    One of the things I want to do this year is to set up a FD into which I automatically transfer 15% of my salary into. This is the only way I think I will build savings consistently. 

    My Dad is very conservative with money, which he has passed down to me. Like him, I tend to wait a long time or avoid making big purchases.

    Still - I think I am thrifty because I don't make big purchases, but in reality, I spend more recklessly on "smaller" but more frequent purchases. I spend a lot on entertainment and indulgences like eating out. All those Swiggy orders add up!  My Dad saved for things like property, his children's education, cars, and so on. I haven't set such goals for myself.

    When I want to buy something expensive, I  tell myself I am only allowed to buy the item after I have saved double the amount it costs. I'm very wary of loans or EMI payments, because I think my lack of organisation would lead to forgetting payments. I also worry I wouldn't be able to repay a loan. A smart thing my Dad did, was to save up the full amount required, but then choose to pay by EMI or get an interest free loan - he said having cash in hand was always a good thing, in case the full payment was ever needed. 

    Demonetization made me realise how privileged I am. I managed to remain cashless for weeks after November 9, paying for everything online and through the digital wallet. I only decided to withdraw money when my maid told me she preferred to be paid in cash.

    For a few weeks, I spent Rs. 130 on a roll in a coffee shop, instead of Rs. 30 from the roll wallah in the street, but now even he has a PayTM account. However, having spoken to a lot of these small business owners who primarily transact in cash, I know that they are still experiencing a sharp decline in business. The changing rules from the RBI don't help either. Not having access to my own money whenever I want is infuriating, and feels utterly unfair. It is worrisome to me that I can't withdraw a huge amount whenever I want, so I can only imagine how fearsome it is to people who don't have the social protections and financial cushion that I do.

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    The Baseline
    06 Jan 2017
    SpiceJet to order 92 new Boeing jetliners

    SpiceJet to order 92 new Boeing jetliners

    • Spicejet is expected to order over 92 jetliners (737 model), in its bid to expand its presence and increase the number of routes in the airline market. The deal would be a big addition to Spicejet's current 40-plane fleet, and could potentially be worth $10.1 billion for Boeing. Spicejet currently has 12% of the market share in Indian aviation, and the growth trajectory for Indian air traffic in the coming two years is high. It is estimated that crude prices will remain steady till FY18 at between $40-$60, keeping the price of aviation fuel - which contributes to 40% of airline operating costs - steady. 

    • The Indian government is set to overhaul spending on poverty programs in a way that has implications for social infrastructure, public oversight and rural consumer spending. The centre is working on ways to empower panchayats in rural spending - which would also make programs more local and accountable. This combined with the government's efforts to directly transfer social benefits to bank accounts, and to consider a Universal Basic Income, is set to transform how India has approached poverty alleviation for decades. Whether it is successful by 2019 - the government's target date to remove 10 million households out of poverty - remains to be seen. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Suzlon Energy, the renewable energy company has won a 105 MW wind project from Axis Energy Ltd. 

    • Photo of the day: A volunteer arranges chappatis for a celebration of Guru Gobind Singh's 350th birthday. Jaipal Singh/EPA

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    The Baseline
    05 Jan 2017
    97% of old notes have been returned to banks, officials say

    97% of old notes have been returned to banks, officials say

    • HDFC Bank is set to match the steep lending rate cuts by SBI and ICICI, by cutting its lending rate by an estimated 0.7-0.9%, according to sources. The bank will set its one-year MCLR at 8.15 percent, while the six-month MCLR will be reportedly set at 8 percent.

    • Nearly all the old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes - 97% of those in circulation - have now been deposited with banks. Banks have received Rs14.97 trillion ($220 billion) of the $15.4 trillion estimated to be in circulation as of 30 December,  

    • Stock in spotlight: Indian Oil Corporation, which has hit a new 52 week high today. The company's 15-million tonnes per annum Paradip refinery is set to achieve full utilization in March 2017, which would mean higher revenues, and an improved gross margin equivalent to RIL. The refinery was at 43% utilization end September 2016.

    • Photo of the day: A 'shop cat' in Hong Kong watches his owner eat lunch. Marcel Heijnen/Blue Lotus

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    The Baseline
    04 Jan 2017
    India's services shrink, Tata Power gets a new Chairman

    India's services shrink, Tata Power gets a new Chairman

    • India's services industry has shrunk for the second month in a row after demonetization, with a fall in orders. The contraction has been driven by the cash crunch across the country after the ban on old Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes. The business expectations sub-index among service providers has fallen to a 12-month low, suggesting that these businesses expect the crunch to continue for some time. A composite index that looks at both manufacturing and services has fallen to a three year low. 

    • Tata Sons has nominated S. Padmanabhan, the additional director on the Tata Power board, as its Chairman. In its announcement, Tata Sons emphasized that it has the power to nominate the Chairman as long as the company has the word 'Tata' as part of its company name. S Padmanabhan is a Tata loyalist who has been with the company for over 33 years. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Ramco Systems is seeing high volumes and gain today on the news of the company signing a multi-million dollar contract with the Panasonic Group of companies in Malaysia.

    • Photo of the day: Military officers rehearse for the Republic Day parade in New Delhi. Chandan Khanna/AFP/Getty Images

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