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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    26 Mar 2017
    Research reports summary and analyst stockpick for the week: Mar 17 - 24

    Research reports summary and analyst stockpick for the week: Mar 17 - 24

    It's the weekend and the stock research report summary is up, with reports from ICICI Securities, HDFC Securities, Axis Direct and more. Telco and Pharma stocks are back on the radar for analysts, with both Sun Pharma and Idea Cellular receiving target and reco upgrades. The stock pick of the week among analysts is Marico, whose demand outlook has improved sharply, and whose "focus on technology is paying off". The company's share price has been on the upswing since March 23, and is currently above its SMAs. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-03-24Bharti Airtel Limited 410.0020.45%Buy340.40ICICI Securities Limited 2x
    1x
    2017-03-23Kaya Limited --%-733.10Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-03-23Sobha Limited --%-362.90Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-03-23Oriental Hotels Limited 55.0049.05%Buy36.90ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-03-23KANPUR PLASTIPACK LTD. 170.0017.36%Buy144.85ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-03-22GAIL (India) Limited 450.0018.03%Buy381.25HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-03-22Manappuram Finance Limited 140.0044.78%Buy96.70Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-03-21Divi's Laboratories Limited 735.0017.96%Buy623.10HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2017-03-21Shankara Building Products L.. --%--HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-03-21Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Lim.. 2875.009.60%NEUT.2623.20Motilal Oswal
    2017-03-21Delta Corp Limited 229.0029.42%Buy176.95Motilal Oswal
    2017-03-21Marico Limited 335.0015.62%Buy289.75Motilal Oswal 2x
    2017-03-21Idea Cellular Limited 100.0010.07%Hold90.85ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2017-03-21HCL Technologies Limited 950.008.87%Buy872.60ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2017-03-21Zee Learn Limited 72.0044.72%Buy49.75Axis Direct
    2017-03-20Voltas Limited 462.0019.04%Buy388.10HDFC Securities 1x
    2017-03-20Sun Pharmaceuticals Industri.. 778.0010.62%Buy703.30Axis Direct 3x
    2017-03-20State Bank of India 320.0015.92%Buy276.05Axis Direct 2x
    1x
    2017-03-20Ujjivan Financial Services L.. 570.0034.96%Buy422.35Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other1x
    1x
    2017-03-20NCL Industries Limited 220.0017.18%Buy187.75ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-03-18CL Educate Ltd IPO --%--HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-03-17Hinduja Global Solutions Lim.. --%-598.75HDFC Securities
    2017-03-17United Spirits Limited 2540.0014.82%Buy2212.20HDFC Securities
    2017-03-17VIP Industries Limited --%Sell173.30LKP Securities
    2017-03-17Ajanta Pharma Limited 2028.0010.82%Buy1830.00Motilal Oswal 1x
    2017-03-17Colgate Palmolive (India) Li.. 1170.0019.51%Buy979.00Motilal Oswal 1x
    2017-03-17The Sandesh Limited 1200.0022.71%Buy977.95ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-03-17Bata India Limited 580.007.54%Buy539.35Axis Direct 3x
    2x
    2017-03-17Dalmia Bharat Limited 2415.0027.13%Buy1899.65Axis Direct 1x
    2017-03-17Jubilant Foodworks Limited 950.00-12.04%Hold1080.00Axis Direct
    2017-03-17Suprajit Engineering Limited 238.002.61%Buy231.95Axis Direct
    2017-03-17Elgi Equipments Limited 230.006.85%Hold215.25Axis Direct 1x
    2017-03-17Whirlpool of India Limited 1305.0013.27%Buy1152.10Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-03-17D-Link (India) Limited 171.0023.07%Buy138.95CD Equisearch
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    The Baseline
    24 Mar 2017
    Policy to fix NPAs coming soon, says FM

    Policy to fix NPAs coming soon, says FM

    Finance Minister Jaitley said that the government, along with the RBI is bringing out the mops to clean the NPAs in India's banking system. The NPA problem, the FM said, is "confined to at best 50 companies", and added that the government is looking at different ways to resolve those accounts, and also introduce oversight committees to address the problem going forward.

    While Uber had said early last year that India was a major target market for the company, it has in recent months cut incentives for drivers and increased its customer fares, which has resulted in lower earnings and many Uber drivers returning the cars leased from Uber and leaving the program. This is compelling Uber to review its car leasing mechanism in India - an approach that worked elsewhere, but doesn't seem to have enough traction in the Indian market.

    Stock in spotlight: Dewan Housing Finance, whose Q3 results and focus on affordable housing and smaller cities has pushed up the share price of this stock, particularly post the budget and a renewed focus on mass housing.

    Photo of the day: As summer builds up in Delhi, some people keep earthen pots outside their houses for thirsty passers-by. A street vendor picks up a cup to drink water. Tsering Topgyal/AP

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    The Baseline
    22 Mar 2017
    The best IPO debut in a while doubles investor wealth on opening day

    The best IPO debut in a while doubles investor wealth on opening day

    Value retailer Avenue Supermart's D-Mart had what turned out to be a stellar stock market debut, with shares more than doubling, and has become the only company in the last six years to see a 100%+ premium on listing day. The shares opened at Rs. 604.4, over twice the IPO offer price of Rs. 299, and closed yesterday at Rs. 640.7. The stock has continued in this range since.  

    Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries' Jio are back at each other's throats, trading accusations about misleading advertising, and who qualifies as the 'fastest network'. The argument started when Jio spotted an Airtel ad claiming to be the "fastest network" in India, and said the ad was inaccurate, also disputing the internet firm Ookla's speed tests. Airtel hit back and Ookla defended the numbers, saying that the numbers are accurate and that it stands behind its results. 

    Stock in spotlight: Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI), which has landed a contract with Scandinavian energy firm OKQ8, to transform application development and maintenance for the company, and also transform system and business processes. Motilal Oswal had recommended L&T Infotech as a BUY following upbeat Q3FY17 results. 

    Photo of the day:  A leaking water truck on a Bangalore road draws people with water bottles. Abhishek Chinnappa/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    21 Mar 2017
    DMart makes a strong debut

    DMart makes a strong debut

    Shares of Avenue Supermarts (DMART) had a fireworks debut on the BSE, as it got listed at a share price of Rs 604.40, a 102.14% premium over its issue price offer of Rs. 299 per share.DMART is riding a wave of optimism on the stock markets and strong growth metrics. DMart's ratios have beaten industry averages - the firm's Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) was 10% for FY12-16 against the industry average for retailers of 5 per cent. The company's low price points have enabled it to post double digit revenue and net profit growth in the past FY. 

    Divis Laboratories on the other hand, is having a bad news day today, with the share price of the company in a double-digit fall, and hitting a new 52 week low on news that the FDA has issued an Import Alert on the company's Unit II factory in Vishakapatnam. Unit 2 is Divis' largest production unit, accounting for 62% of products sold. The FDA's stringent move is consequently likely to hit company results. 

    Stock in spotlight: Jubilant Life Sciences, whose fully owned subsidiary in Singapore, Jubilant Pharma Limited ('JPL'), is negotiating a potential acquisition of a specialty pharma business in the United States using only internal accruals. The proposed acquisition is a niche, profitable specialty pharma business which Jubilant says is "a strategic fit" for the company. Jubilant had hit a new 52 week high in the past few days. 

    Photo of the day: A young elephant walks next to an adult in their enclosure in Cologne, Germany. Oliver Berg/dpa/AP

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    The Baseline
    20 Mar 2017
    D-Mart opens in markets on Tuesday

    D-Mart opens in markets on Tuesday

    The D-Mart parent Avenue Supermarts recently concluded its Rs 1,870-crore IPO issue, and the stock will list on stock exchanges tomorrow. The D-Mart IPO was subscribed more than 104 times, and its price band was fixed at Rs. 295-299. Most analysts have been bullish about this IPO,  with some like Angel Broking even suggesting that the IPO could list at double the issue price.

    The discount supermarket chain has had a promising growth record, and is now debuting in the market at a time investors are bullish about growth and reform, post the UP elections. The IPO is the biggest since PNB Housing Finance’s Rs 3,000 crore offer in October last year. 

    Vodafone and Idea Cellular have sealed the deal on their planned merger, with the two boards approving the move. This creates India’s largest telecom company with revenues exceeding Rs. 80,000 crore. Vodafone is expected to be dominant in this telecom giant, with 45.1% stake in the firm. Share transfers will eventually give the Aditya Birla group a 26% stake in the company, and under the agreement the AB group can acquire more shares over time, gradually equalizing shareholding. Shares of Idea Cellular tanked after initially rallying on the news. Analysts have estimated that EBITDA for the merged entity could improved by 250-300 bps post merger, thanks to operational efficiencies.  

    Stock in spotlight:  Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited, which has been trending strongly up in stock markets on improved profits, and with the recent moves to raise ceilings on investments into HFCs by MFs and insurance. Read Trendlyne's article on Indiabulls Housing.

    Photo of the day: Hindustan Motors has sold its Ambassador cars to Peugeot, for 9.6 million pounds. In the picture, yellow Ambassador taxis drive through Kolkata's roads. Dibyangshu Sarkar/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    19 Mar 2017

    Stock Reports for the week: Mar 13-17

    Stock reports for the week from Axis Direct, Motilal Oswal, and more. Stock pick of the week from analysts is Dalmia Bharat,  which has seen sharp net profit growth in recent quarters and is likely to get an upward re-rating on its debt thanks to deleveraging and potentially improved management of assets. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-03-17Bata India Limited 580.009.54%Buy529.50Axis Direct 3x
    2x
    2017-03-17Dalmia Bharat Limited 2415.0026.37%Buy1911.00Axis Direct 1x
    2017-03-17Jubilant Foodworks Limited 950.00-13.98%Hold1104.45Axis Direct
    2017-03-17Ujjivan Financial Services L.. 550.0024.53%Buy441.65Axis Direct 1x
    1x
    2017-03-17Suprajit Engineering Limited 238.009.88%Buy216.60Axis Direct 1x
    2017-03-17Elgi Equipments Limited 230.008.49%Hold212.00Axis Direct 1x
    2017-03-17Whirlpool of India Limited 1305.0018.02%Buy1105.75Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-03-17D-Link (India) Limited 171.0022.76%Buy139.30CD Equisearch
    2017-03-16Hero MotoCorp Limited 3596.007.39%ACC.3348.50Nirmal Bang Institutional 1x
    1x
    2017-03-16V.S.T Tillers Tractors Limited 2117.0014.66%Buy1846.25Karvy 1x
    2017-03-16Engineers India Limited 182.0017.72%Buy154.60ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-03-14Repco Home Finance Limited 752.007.03%Buy702.60Motilal Oswal 1x
    1x
    2017-03-14Prism Cement Limited 112.0014.11%Buy98.15Motilal Oswal
    2017-03-14Sun Pharmaceuticals Industri.. 850.0020.28%Buy706.70Motilal Oswal 3x
    2017-03-14Reliance Industries Limited 1240.00-4.66%NEUT.1300.65Motilal Oswal
    2017-03-14Manappuram Finance Limited --%Buy92.50Axis Direct
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    The Baseline
    17 Mar 2017
    GST finally gets a clear runway to July 1, pending state approval

    GST finally gets a clear runway to July 1, pending state approval

    The goods and services tax (GST) council on Thursday has given its nod to the two remaining pieces of legislation required for implementing the landmark tax reform, paving the way for their introduction in Parliament and state legislatures. This marks an important step towards meeting the July 1 deadline for GST legislation. 

    Food and drink multinationals are planning to aggressively lobby against planned government rules for more taxes on sugary drinks, and fatty items. The government is considering a nationwide "fat tax" for so-called "junk foods". ITC, Nestle and Pepsico are meeting trade groups in Delhi to push back against government efforts. 

    Stock in spotlight: BPCL, India’s second largest oil marketing company, is planning to enter the travel business with its personal travel offering, Happy Roads, which would help travellers plan and execute road trips. 

    Photo of the day: An orchid mantis perches on the head of a frog hanging from a tree branch. Riau/Barcroft

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    The Baseline
    16 Mar 2017
    Bharti Airtel to sell/transfer 400 million shares of Bharti Infratel

    Bharti Airtel to sell/transfer 400 million shares of Bharti Infratel

    Bharti Airtel has been evaluating monetizing a significant stake in Bharti Infratelto raise additional funds. The Airtel Board has now decided to undertake a sale / transfer of upto 400 million Infratel equity shares owned by Airtel -  a non-controlling stake in Infratel - in tranches to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nettle Infrastructure Investments, as well as other potential investors. 

    The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the US by 25 basis points, but said further raising of rates would be "gradual", causing investors across Asia to heave a sigh of relief and had the dollar register losses against the main Asian currencies. The Fed now projects two more rate increases over 2017. 

    Stock in spotlight: Zee Entertainmentis amping up its digital focus with the acquisition of tech startup Margo Networks for Rs. 750 million. Zee said that it will subscribe fresh shares of Margo at a post-issue valuation of Rs. 95 crore.

    Photo of the day: A staff worker blows on an Arabian camel at the Berlin zoo. John Macdougall/AFP/Getty Images

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    The Baseline
    15 Mar 2017
    Interest rate increases in US threatens stock market rallies

    Interest rate increases in US threatens stock market rallies

    The US Federal Reserve has promised a rate hike which is likely to be announced today, with more rate hikes in the coming months. This means that the advantages that India, China and other Asian markets have may be pared down as money leaves Asian shores for the US to take advantage of higher interest rates. While the immediate rate hike in March is likely priced in by the markets, investors will be waiting to hear what Fed Chief Janet Yellen says about future hikes. The Federal Reserve has previously hinted that more hikes may be forthcoming. 

    The income tax department has launched criminal prosecutions against alleged tax evaders by initiating 570 cases, 3x more than the previous year. An estimated 1,200 applications from people accused of evading taxes have also been filed, "seeking mercy" from authorities. One such case according to the department is from a Telangana MLA with approximately Rs. 500 crore in unaccounted income. 

    Stock in spotlight: JSW Steel, which announced its February production numbers today, marking a production growth of 25% compared to February 2016 in crude steel, and growth of 23% and 8% in flat and long rolled steel products. 

    Photo of the day: Students in Thailand feed elephants with pineapple during National Elephant Day celebrations. Chalwat Subprasom/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    14 Mar 2017
    Nifty scales new heights post BJP win in UP

    Nifty scales new heights post BJP win in UP

    The Nifty rose as much as 2.11% to a record high on Tuesday morning, as investors saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh as endorsing his economic reform agenda. The win in India's largest state election cements the BJP mandate at the Centre, likely enabling the government to push through critical reforms like the GST and labour reform. Markets are high despite the dampening impact of the expected US Federal interest rate hike this month, a move that might suck money out of Asian markets and back to the US. 

    Calling TVF - The Viral Fever - an "Indian Uber", an ex-employee posted an account of numerous instances of sexual harrasment by TVF chief Arunabh Kumar. Following her blog on Medium, two more women have come forward with similar accounts, even as TVF has tried to dismiss the charges as "ludicrous". 

    Stock in spotlight: Ramco Systems, which has just announced a new order with New Zealand company Ravensdown Aerowork, to deploy Ramco's software for automation and maintenance for its fixed-wing aircraft. 

    Photo of the day: Auto-rickshaw drivers clean the windscreens of their vehicles after an unexpected spring snowfall in Dharamshala, India, on Saturday. Ashwini Bhatia/AP

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