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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    24 Nov 2016
    Shares take a dive, today is the last day old notes can be used at utilities

    Shares take a dive, today is the last day old notes can be used at utilities

    Indian shares have dropped today, as a fall in the rupee to well below 68 per dollar has hurt stock market sentiments, especially at a time when investors are already worried about how demonetisation will affect economic growth. The rupee fell to as low as 68.8 per dollar, nearly surpassing its record low of 68.85 that it hit in August 2013 until the RBI intervened. 

    Today - November 24 - is the last day to use old Rs.500/Rs.1000 notes at utilities like medical stores, railway stations, electricity and water bills, and airline counters. 

    Stock in spotlight: Hindalco is now in strongly bullish territory, with a technical score of 89.3.

    Photo of the day: A 3,800 year old jug discovered in excavations in Israel. Ammar Awad/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    23 Nov 2016
    Sun Pharma acquires Russian company OJSC Biosintez for $60 million

    Sun Pharma acquires Russian company OJSC Biosintez for $60 million

    Sun Pharma has announced the acquisition of 85.1% of the Russian Pharma company OJSC Biosintez for $60 million. The company is based out of the Russia and CIS region. Sun Pharma would also assume the Russian company's debt of approximately US$ 36 million. Biosintez had annoual revenues of approximately US$ 52 million for 2015, and a manufacturing facility in the Penza region.  

    Sun Pharma has been working to expand its reach to the US, Europe and emerging markets, but recently ran into speed bumps in the US after being named in a Justice Department investigation into price manipulation and collusion. Sun Pharma and other companies have denied the charges but may have their day in court as the federal agency proceeds with the investigation. In December last year the company had also received a warning from the US FDA for violations in its Gujarat manufacturing plants. 

    The company has however, also been receiving product approvals this year for its generics in the US market, which will boost revenues as its price points remain extremely competitive compared to US drug makers. Sun Pharma also saw stellar Q2 results, with net profit doubling with some partner payments coming in, and net revenues rising 13.2%. 

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    The Baseline
    23 Nov 2016
    Rupee slides sharply as investors, spellbound by Trump, move funds out of India

    Rupee slides sharply as investors, spellbound by Trump, move funds out of India

    The rupee takes a tumble, even with the RBI's intervention

    The rupee has been on a sharp downward slide against the dollar, now at a nine month low of 68.5. The fall has been propelled by money rapidly exiting Indian stocks and bonds - over $2.7 billion has already moved out of the stock markets. The US markets have become for now, where all the action is happening: the upcoming Fed interest rate hike as well as the new Trump government's big spending promises, is driving investors back to the dollar. 

    It is rumored that the 'Big Daddy' - what traders call the RBI - is intervening in Indian markets to stem the rupee's decline, selling millions of dollars to offset rupee sales by traders. The RBI now has enough cash to do this: Indian banks have received more than Rs 5 lakh crore in deposits as people queued up to deposit and exchange old notes, giving the RBI liquidity to stem the rupee fall. Still, some grey market currency dealers have been selling dollars for anywhere between Rs 85 and Rs 115. 

    "Presents for Everyone!"

    US markets in the meantime, are up, up, up. The US Dow has hit above 19,000 on expectations that Trump will cut regulations in the financial sector, introduce tax cuts and boost government spending. Bank stocks in the US have gained over 13% since Trump's election win. Investors don't seem perturbed that Trump has yet to explain how he will be funding these measures - the US President Elect has taken a "presents for everyone!" approach, promising both big government spending and steep tax cuts for everybody. 

    Indian companies on wait and watch mode

    Markets are still waiting as demonetization works its way through the markets. Farmer struggles around crop planting after demonetization is threatening farm output months down the line, which would then impact food prices and consumer spending. The success of the government's steps to provide loans to farmers remains to be seen, with bank infrastructure aready burdened with long queues and notes exchanges. 

    Demonetization hit Indian companies just as many firms were beginning to see the earnings recover with bumper sales and Diwali spending, as well as better industry production and agri numbers. Now however, growth has hit a fence, with many expecting that the slowdown will continue for at least a couple of quarters.

    One furniture and customer retail company's marketing head estimated that sales had fallen across outlets "at least by 50%. We used to see plenty of big-ticket purchases that were made all in cash," he said, 'Now that has almost disappeared." SME offices say that their business has fallen anywhere between 20-50%. 'The first week after demonetization was the worst," one SME businessman says, "Now we are still trying to recover, and had to delay salary payments."

    Photo: Trump with his VP Mike Pence (Hilary Swift/NYT)

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    The Baseline
    23 Nov 2016
    Mistry challenges Ratan Tata's judgement, the richest 1% owns over half of India's wealth

    Mistry challenges Ratan Tata's judgement, the richest 1% owns over half of India's wealth

    • The Indian government has announced a series of steps to ease the pain of demonetization. In addition to disbursing $3.07 billion worth of loans to farmers, the RBI has doubled the amount of money that can be kept in digital wallets to Rs. 20,000. This the bank says, would enable small merchants to accept more payments digitally, and merchants can also transfer up to Rs. 50,000 to their bank accounts per month. 

    • Mistry continues to cast doubt on Ratan Tata's ability and his business decisions, saying that Tata had acquired the Anglo-Dutch company Corus at a steep $12 billion price tag and at the peak of a price boom, when it had been available for half that amount a year earlier. The acquisition, Mistry challenges, took place over the doubts of board members and executives, hurting the health of the acquisition because Tata Steel was strapped for funds and unable to invest significantly in the company. As a result, the recession put the acquisition at risk. Tata Steel had said earlier this year that it was looking to sell the UK business of Corus.

    • The world's wealthiest 10% own 89% of all global assets, while in India the richest 1% owns 58.4% of India's wealth, according to the latest Credit Suisse report. Switzerland continues to be the richest country in the world - an average Swiss is eleven times wealthier than an average world citizen.   

    • Stock in spotlight: Vakrangee Limited, which leads the technical score gainers and has hit a new 52 week high this past week. 

    • Photo of the day: A recreation of the Titanic ship's sinking, made with Lego blocks. Dan Peled/AAP

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    The Baseline
    22 Nov 2016
    New Rs. 2000 note threatens successful demonetization

    New Rs. 2000 note threatens successful demonetization

    One noticeable trend that has emerged since demonetization has been the frustration of ordinary people in finding willing takers for the new Rs.2,000 note. At this point, it is almost as unpopular as the old Rs. 500 note for hawkers, vegetable sellers and shopkeepers. Accepting a Rs. 2,000 note is accepting a burden: the burden of finding someone else who will take the note from you and give you change. 

    But there is another question that the Rs. 2000 note raises. A few days after the new note was introduced, a junior official at the Kolhapur Zilla Parishad was caught accepting a Rs. 35,000 bribe - consisting of 17 crisp new Rs. 2000s. In 2013, the country Sweden began a demonetization effort, and the first step it took was removing the highest denomination bill, the 1,000 krona note (worth approximately $110). This made it more cumbersome to conduct large transactions in cash, and Sweden noted that demand for the next highest note (500 krona) also fell by 60% after the move. By 2014, cash use had fallen considerably, and today most public infrastructure, including buses and trains, have card slots and only take cards. Many small shops voluntarily have signs saying, 'we don't take cash', preferring digital. While multiple countries, including Sweden's European neighbors, Finland, Belgium and Italty have tried demonetization, Sweden is the only country where cash holdings have actually reduced after the effort. 

    Consider in comparison, India's introduction of the new Rs. 2,000 note - incidentally, the Rs. 2000 note's PPP (purchasing parity) with the dollar is $106. This is a significant denomination in India, and retains high convenience for bulk cash transactions while making change difficult for ordinary folk. A sheaf of Rs. 2000 notes is high value and easily transportable.

    If the government wanted to curb the 'suitcases of cash' model of doing business and reduce illicit cross-border cash flow, introducing an even higher denomination note is arguably not a good move.

    Another aspect is the size of the note. The economist Peter Garber had noted that besides reducing the denomination of the highest currency, the physical size of the note is also a factor for smugglers and the black market - bigger notes are harder to move around easily. "The iron law for subverting illicit economies is as follows," he wrote, "a percentage increase in physical note size is equivalent to the same percentage increase in the price level." But the 2,000 note is smaller than the currency notes it has replaced. 

    Options to cash

    The exhortation by the Indian government to move towards digital cash is a good one - cash does increase fraud, the black money economy, and aids illegal activity like the drug trade and terrorist groups. But people need many more options at scale that what is currently, easily available to successfully move out of cash. Solutions like PayTM and digital wallets and debit/credit cards are primarily available today to middle class and urban Indians.

    Digital wallets require a smartphone, which is a big barrier for many millions of Indians. For small merchants, card transaction fees dent their profits. To make cash less attractive, the government needs to make low-cost card and card transaction options available with high penetration across urban and rural India. Unless this happens at high speed, using cash will remain attractive - and the existence of the new 2,000 note does not help matters. 

    Photo: Aish Gaba/Twitter

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    The Baseline
    22 Nov 2016
    Old money is legal tender for some, Sensex sees a rally but institutional investors still wary

    Old money is legal tender for some, Sensex sees a rally but institutional investors still wary

    • The government has relaxed some rulesallowing farmers to pay for seeds with old cash, while RBI issued new guidelines for people to withdraw upto Rs. 2.5L for wedding expenses. Withdrawing additional money for weddings however, will require jumping through several hoops, including furnishing a wedding card, advance bills, names of people to whom money is being paid, and signed statements from vendors receiving that they lack bank accounts.

    • Asian stock markets including the Sensex are seeing a rally today, although the length of the recovery is still uncertain with signs that institutional investors are in a wait-and-watch mode until Trump announces his economic team. Trump had made a statement on Youtube, announcing among other things that the US would 'investigate abuses of work visas' - such a move would affect Indian IT companies like TCS and Infosys, which rely on H1B visas to send Indian workers onsite temporarily for US projects.   

    • An investigation by India's IT department has potentially uncovered a Rs. 38,000 crore penny stocks scam, where trading in penny stocks of 84 BSE listed companies were used to launder black money. The brokers involved were posting fake capital gains for their clients, allowing black money to be documented as legitimate earnings.  

    • Stock in spotlight: Cairn India has seen steady gains over the last three months, and with a rising Technical Score at 71+ is on the verge of moving into bullish territory. 

    • Photo of the day: Professor Kevin Warwick has implanted a chip in his arm that allows him to control a bionic hand, using his nervous system. The Guardian/David Vintiner

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    The Baseline
    21 Nov 2016, 05:49PM
    Stock research reports summary, and stock pick of the week

    Stock research reports summary, and stock pick of the week

    It's been a bumpy ride for markets last week, and 50 research reports also dropped from analysts. Multiple stocks received both upgrades and downgrades. Tata Motors for instance saw four new reports come in from ICICI Sec, HDFC Sec, Chola Wealth and LKP, two of which revised the price target upwards, and two revised them down.

    Stock of the week from research reports: Petronet LNG, which saw impressive Q2 results with net profit up 82%. The company has gained 66% from its 52 week low. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-11-18Petronet LNG Limited 415.0013.03%Buy367.15HDFC Securities 1x
    2016-11-17Indraprastha Gas Limited 850.004.22%NEUT.815.60HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2x
    2016-11-17Talwalkars Better Value Fitn.. 282.0023.25%Buy228.80Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other
    2016-11-17Motherson Sumi Systems Limited 342.0021.93%Buy280.50Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other
    2016-11-17GAIL (India) Limited 505.0020.20%Buy420.15ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2016-11-17Apollo Hospitals Enterprise .. 1440.0024.69%Buy1154.90ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-11-17PTC India Limited 76.0013.43%Hold67.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-17JK Tyre & Industries Limited 145.0028.38%Hold112.95ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-17Divi's Laboratories Limited 1305.0012.13%Buy1163.85ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2016-11-17Tata Motors Limited 595.0030.23%Buy456.90ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other2x
    3x
    2016-11-17Emmbi Industries Limited 150.0033.93%Buy112.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-17Sun Pharmaceuticals Industri.. 847.0022.62%Buy690.75Angel Broking and 1 other3x
    1x
    2016-11-16MOIL Limited 445.0046.38%Buy304.00HDFC Securities 1x
    1x
    2016-11-16Hindustan Petroleum Corporat.. 515.0016.58%Buy441.75HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2016-11-16Aurobindo Pharma Limited 980.0037.68%Buy711.80HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2016-11-16Triveni Turbine Limited 146.0026.96%Buy115.00HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2016-11-16Suzlon Energy Limited 24.0071.80%Buy13.97HDFC Securities
    2016-11-16Atul Auto Limited 500.0021.95%Buy410.00Nirmal Bang Institutional 1x
    1x
    2016-11-16KCP Limited 125.0051.06%Buy82.75Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-11-16La Opala RG Limited --%-517.70Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-11-16Natco Pharma Limited --%-584.40Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other
    2016-11-16Mahindra & Mahindra Limited 1319.009.93%Hold1199.85Reliance Securities and 1 other2x
    2x
    2016-11-16State Bank of India 310.0020.27%Hold257.75ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-11-16Bank of Baroda 180.0011.49%Hold161.45ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2016-11-16PREMCO GLOBAL LTD. 825.0045.50%Buy567.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-16AIA Engineering Limited 1400.0013.60%Hold1232.40ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-16The Great Eastern Shipping C.. 330.00-6.49%Hold352.90ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-16IPCA Laboratories Limited 605.0012.84%Buy536.15ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2x
    2016-11-16Eros International Media Lim.. 190.0024.14%Hold153.05ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-16CONTROL PRINT LTD. 300.0022.08%Buy245.75ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-16Tata Global Beverages Limited 130.0011.97%Hold116.10ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-16HeidelbergCement India Limited 124.0019.17%Hold104.05ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-11-16Navneet Education Limited 122.0015.37%Buy105.75ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    1x
    2016-11-16Garware Wall Ropes Limited 618.0010.36%ACC.560.00Angel Broking 1x
    2016-11-16Mirza International Limited 107.0053.96%Buy69.50Angel Broking
    2016-11-15Bharat Petroleum Corporation.. 680.007.32%NEUT.633.60HDFC Securities and 1 other2x
    2016-11-15KNR Constructions Limited 830.0014.01%Buy728.00Reliance Securities 1x
    2016-11-15Hindalco Industries Limited 128.0018.68%Sell157.40Reliance Securities and 1 other1x
    2x
    2016-11-15Ahluwalia Contracts (India) .. 330.0029.95%Buy253.95Reliance Securities 1x
    2016-11-15Coromandel International Lim.. 284.0022.31%Buy232.20Motilal Oswal
    2016-11-15Jain Irrigation Systems Limi.. 99.0018.00%Buy83.90Motilal Oswal
    2016-11-15Triveni Engineering & Indust.. --%Buy53.40Motilal Oswal
    2016-11-15Muthoot Finance Limited 530.0083.55%Buy288.75Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-11-15Thermax Limited 720.0014.20%Sell839.15Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other
    2016-11-15Apollo Tyres Limited 225.0023.73%Hold181.85ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-15Page Industries Limited 12000.005.51%Sell12700.00ICICI Securities Limited 2x
    2016-11-15Sun TV Network Limited 560.0027.68%Hold438.60ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-15NRB Bearing Limited 120.0010.14%Hold108.95ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-15Dish TV India Limited 90.006.13%Hold84.80ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-15Tata Steel Limited 375.000.93%Hold371.55ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-14Action Construction Equipmen.. 75.0076.89%Buy42.40LKP Securities
    2016-11-14Balmer Lawrie & Company Limi.. 980.0021.05%Buy809.55LKP Securities
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    The Baseline
    21 Nov 2016, 10:42AM
    Indian companies reel from demonetization, TCS calls for an EGM to remove Mistry as director

    Indian companies reel from demonetization, TCS calls for an EGM to remove Mistry as director

    • Indian companies are reeling from demonetization effects as companies are struggling to pay suppliers and fund their distribution chains. Entire supply chains, according to corporates are breaking down due to the reliance on cash. Even when wages are being paid online staff need time off to stand in queues and withdraw money.  

    • TCS made a statement to BSE calling for an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) on December 13. The meeting will consider a resolution to remove Cyrus Mistry as director from the TCS board, since he had made 'unsubstantiated' remarks that cast aspersions on the company and on Tata Sons. “Mr. Mistry’s conduct has caused enormous harm to the Tata group, TCSL and its stakeholders, including employees and shareholders”, the BSE filing said.

    • FIIs have continued their selling of Indian equities, and have dumped over $1 billion in the past six days of trading.  Both an expected interest rate hike by the US Federal authority and demonetization have had a dampening effect on markets.

    • Stock in spotlight: Oil India Limited has hit a new 52 week high today. The company has gained 23.45% over the last six months, beating most stocks in its sector.. 

    • Photo of the day: Customers in Mexico fight over a television set during the season sale at a Walmart. Daniel Becerril/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    18 Nov 2016
    'A salute to Mrs. Khosla's India': five stories about demonetization

    'A salute to Mrs. Khosla's India': five stories about demonetization

    A week after demonetization, many Indians have war stories about their attempts to get new cash (and sometimes, get rid of too much old cash). Every event - from purchasing vegetables to wedding ceremonies - has been thrown out of joint due to the cash crunch. Raghu, a policy analyst at a think-tank, noted that at a family wedding he attended last week, the bride's side cancelled the chappal-stealing ceremony because they would have only got old notes in return for the stolen shoes.

    Here are five anecdotes of people chasing the rare bird called New Notes - and also helping each other out in the interim.

    Helping my vegetable vendor set up PayTM: Shashikant, an entrepreneur in Pune, Maharashtra

    "Ganesh, my local Subziwalla usually transacts entirely in cash - I go to him because his vegetables are excellent, the freshest in the market. He's been reeling from demonetization, his customers don't have money and he's been allowing some of his regulars to purchase on credit. I helped him set up PayTM on his phone, and he has started accepting payments via the app. His customers, he says, are super happy."  

    Sharing Mrs. Khosla's parathas: Chirantan Chatterjee, an IIMB professor

    "I was on an Air Indigo flight, had no cash for food and my card didn't work. My seatmate Mrs. Khosla offered me her parathas. 'Adjust kar lo beta, thodi dinon ki baat hai,' she said, observing my misery. And so the hungry stomach got some solace. Mrs. Khosla is now single, her husband expired a few years back and she herself has retired as a central government employee. Her governments might have disappointed her over the decades, but her parathas haven't. Here's a salute to her India." 

    No change: Mahesh K P, a Developer at Thoughtworks

    "I Ola-pool with a friend to get from my office to my home in Bannerghatta road. Our Ola driver was a talkative guy - but then these days strangers everywhere break the ice by talking about demonetization. He said that he's been getting plenty of passengers who haven't set up their wallets on the Ola app, and told us he has willingly taken old Rs. 500 notes, since the passengers don't ask for change."

    Paying the moneylender: Rani, low income working single mother of two boys

    "I had saved up around Rs. 4,500 in my house, to pay a loan I had taken from a moneylender. The interest rate he charges is pretty high, so when the announcement came I went to the ICICI bank to deposit the money and get new notes, but the queues were very long and I had to go to work. Last week, I couldn't exchange the notes at all so this week I went again early in the morning. People had brought food to share while standing in the queue. The wait wasn't too long, and I finally encashed the amount."  

    Improvising for a black money stash: R, who runs a small business in Kerala

    "I appreciate PM Modi for this crackdown on black money, but it is very difficult for me to not transact in black when my entire business network is not willing to take white money. I have to work with clients and contractors who transact fully in black and don't want to use bills or do bank transfers. Without them, I would lose 70% of my business. So I had a lot of cash lying at home.

    The day after the announcement, a hawala trader approached me with a 60/40 deal, offering to launder money for a 40% cut. I refused, and instead called up my friends and family who are not in business, to help me deposit the cash into their bank accounts. But unless the broader business network starts to transact in white, the black money stash will build up again - one person can't change alone." 

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    The Baseline
    18 Nov 2016
    Mistry abandons legal fight against Tata Sons, Infosys prepares for an immigrant backlash

    Mistry abandons legal fight against Tata Sons, Infosys prepares for an immigrant backlash

    • Mistry is reportedly stepping back from legal challenges to the Tata Sons group, and is instead focusing on the effective running of the group companies, and the need to follow corporate governance norms. Mistry still has a lot of skin in the game - he remains Chairman of key companies, and his family heads Shapoorji Pallonji, which is the second-largest shareholder in Tata Sons with a 18.4% stake. (The ties between the Tatas and the Mistrys include family - Cyrus' sister Aloo is married to Noel Tata, Ratan Tata's half-brother). Mistry's focus is now apparently ensuring that the companies generate good returns for shareholders. 

    • Major crop planting is at riskdue to an unavailability of cash, despite a late move by the government to loosen up withdrawal limits for farmers - farmers say they have two weeks left to plant crops like wheat, mustard and chickpeas. Missing the planting window due to inability to buy seed risks the production of major commodities and would hurt farmers still recovering from droughts since last year. Farmers are likely to take a big hit in already low incomes, with them earning an average of just Rs. 12,000 per hectare from the harvest.

    • Infosys CEO Vishal Sikka says that the company is preparing for an anti-immigrant backlash once Donald Trump takes office. One of Trump's core promises was to 'build a wall' along the Mexico border to keep immigrants out, and Indian IT companies expect new restrictions on US work visas for Indian workers. Sikka says that they plan on hiring more American workers for onsite projects, which would mean downward pressure on company margins, which are already hurting post-Brexit and competition from smaller software firms. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Phoenix Mills, which has seen high volumes with the stock up this week - despite customers cutting spending in the short term with demonetization, the company is expected to cut its debt and see better rentals in its mall spaces. 

    • Photo of the day: A white owl rescued from an eagle attack in Cubbon Park, Bangalore. Jagadeesh NV/EPA

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