The rupee has been the worst performing emerging market currency today, as it continued to weaken against the dollar with little let-up. The RBI has made it clear its reluctance to intervene, noting that the rupee needs to find its natural rate, with the Bank not stepping in to provide supports. As news rolled in today of US President Trump threatening more tariffs against China, and complaining of subsidies to India and China, the rupee continued to weaken. Markets have been more volatile under Trump, with his periodic threats against developing countries and global trade concerning both investors and governments.
Despite the resistance of officials that surround him, Trump has also often followed through with damaging moves, such as the tariffs already imposed against China, and his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and imposition of sanctions. These sanctions have been blamed for rising oil prices globally, because of Iran oil supplies getting pushed out of the market as countries fear antagonizing the US.
An additional challenge for the Indian economy has been rising oil prices, as OPEC and Russia continue to cooperate on keeping global supplies under control. The sell off by foreign investors in the rupee has continued, and with the US Federal Reserve having raised interest rates, some investors are pulling money out of emerging markets and bringing it back to the US. All these factors have kept the pressure on the rupee up, and some analysts expect that the rupee may fall to as much as 75 against the US$. Investors can't do much besides watch and wait.
