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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    15 Oct 2019
    Live Results Screener: Companies with September results showing growth in margin, profits

    Live Results Screener: Companies with September results showing growth in margin, profits

    The Live Results Screener (subscription, but screenshot above) tracks companies that have delivered both net profit and operating profit margin growth, and declared results within the past two weeks. This screener updates in real-time, as results come in. Stocks that have qualified for this screener include casino company Delta Corp, Hindustan Unilever, andAvenue Supermarts (DMART).

    These three companies in particular, delivered upwards of 20% net profit YoY growth despite India's choppy economy, and Hindustan Unilever and DMART saw double digit profit margin growth, despite the inevitable discounting near festival season, and to drive volumes. 

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    The Baseline
    14 Oct 2019
    While Dolly Khanna cuts stake in NOCIL and Rain, Kacholia bullish on two stocks

    While Dolly Khanna cuts stake in NOCIL and Rain, Kacholia bullish on two stocks

    Superstar investors have made changes to their portfolios as the markets turned volatile, with investor Dolly Khanna cutting stake in NOCIL and Rain Industries, and exiting Muthoot Capital, whose share price took a beating this year. Investor Ashish Kacholia has upped his stake in DFM Foods, and put Rs 9.8 crore - over 2% - in Apollo Pipes. He cut his stake marginally in V2Retail. 

    Porinju Veliyath, who was in the news recently for a bulk purchase of shares in struggling Manpasand Beverages (which he later denied, attributing it to 'fat finger'), upped EQIndia's stake in Archies to 3.55%. 

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    The Baseline created a screener RSI test
    11 Oct 2019

    RSI test

    Positive breakout Third resistance ( LTP > R3)
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    The Baseline
    11 Oct 2019
    Result Analyzer: Signs of slowdown in earnings, operating margins

    Result Analyzer: Signs of slowdown in earnings, operating margins

    Some of the larger companies have started announcing their results for the September quarter, with 10+ firms announcing numbers in the past two days. The Result Analyzer, which tracks these results in one place, shows where the companies are hurting in their quarter numbers. From TCS to breweries to paper firms, earnings before interest, depreciation and taxes are down, as operating margins take a hit. 8/10 companies are seeing operating margin declines in the September quarter of the results declared so far. 

    IndusInd Bank was one of the few exceptions to the rule, but investors nonetheless were unhappy, due to the sharp fall in loan growth for the bank to a multi-year low. Share prices consequently fell despite the bank recording a 50% jump in profit YoY for the quarter. For the full result analyzer click here.  

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks and Indices Trading …
    11 Oct 2019

    Stocks and Indices Trading Below Day's High

    Screener for stocks trading below day's high
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    The Baseline
    10 Oct 2019
    Screener: Upcoming Results for companies that saw net profit and revenue growth

    Screener: Upcoming Results for companies that saw net profit and revenue growth

    The Upcoming Results screenerlooks for companies that saw both YoY and QoQ profit growth in the previous quarter of at least 10%. These include the discount retailer Avenue Supermarts (result due October 12), FMCG behemoth Hindustan Unilever (result on Oct 14) and cement firm ACC (result on Oct 17). Interestingly, HUL has been rising consistently in share price ahead of the September quarter results, suggesting investor bullishness despite overall concerns of consumers tightening their purses and keeping wallets in pockets. 

     In all 28 companies qualify, among those who have announced their result dates. 

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    The Baseline
    07 Oct 2019
    MF analysis: Retirement funds are key to comfort during the sunset years

    MF analysis: Retirement funds are key to comfort during the sunset years

    ‘’The goal of retirement is to live off your assets, not on them” - Frank Eberhart

    Retirement, a word that evokes excitement and anxiety simultaneously, and needs financial planning well in advance. Mutual fund ads often show happy, older couples going on holidays, taking cruises, living a normal, comfortable life. Is that possible to achieve? The sunset years are a time without earnings but with higher health expenses, when one needs a regular pension income and the backing of a sizeable corpus. This is where retirement focused mutual funds can make a difference (See top retirement mutual funds)

    Most retirement funds are either debt funds, hybrid funds, equity funds or a combination of funds with varied asset allocation along with the option of a systematic withdrawal plan. These funds fall in the SEBI category of solution-oriented funds. 

    Salient Features at a glance:

    • Higher flexibility in withdrawal compared to pension funds like NPS. One can also redeem one’s holdings and switch to another mutual fund
    • Certain funds offer the option to switch between funds with gradually reduced exposure to high risk equity as retirement approaches
    • Retirement funds carry a lock-in period of five years or until retirement, whichever is earlier. 
    • Exit load of 3-4% in case of premature withdrawal
    • The longer lock-in period and higher exit load levied is to discourage premature withdrawal of retirement funds
    • Many funds have options suited to the risk appetite of the investor like conservative, moderate and aggressive/progressive plans
    • Retirement funds fall under goal-based investments, which helps instill financial discipline while investing
    • Certain funds offer the feature of auto-switch option i.e. rebalance the portfolio based on age, life stage and risk metrics between equity-debt
    • Fund manager aims to minimise fluctuations in NAV
    • The fund management expenses are higher than the charges for NPS
    • Suitable for moderate to low risk investors with 40% equity exposure as against 65% in hybrid funds
    • Owing to the moderate risk associated with such instruments, the returns generated are lower than pure equity funds
    • Option to withdraw lump sum at maturity
    • Not suited for investors looking at a short-term investment horizon owing to limited liquidity

    Investment Rationale: 

    • Option for Systematic Withdrawal Plan (SWPs): Most retirement funds have an in-built option of SWP at the time of retirement, which may offer cash-payouts or dividends at regular intervals. Systematic withdrawals are not subject to TDS, with capital gains tax liable on withdrawn amounts. SWPs even offer the option to withdraw the capital appreciation amount and retain one’s capital invested in the mutual fund.
    • Suited for long term horizons: Financial planning for retirement requires considerable financial discipline by starting to invest early, regular investment and refraining from withdrawing one’s retirement corpus. Retirement planning is a long-term goal. Accordingly, retirement funds are aimed at long term wealth creation.
    • Risks involved: The main risk is  inflation,  owing to the prolonged time period of investment. Thus, one needs to select a mix of equity and debt with reduced equity exposure as one nears retirement.  
    • Earn compounding returns: Given the long investment period, retirement funds offer opportunity to derive compounded returns and build a sizeable corpus.
    • Diversification benefit: Retirement funds offer a diversification advantage across asset classes. Note that systematic risk affects the markets uniformly and cannot be eliminated by diversification. 
    • Transparency:  Retirement funds offer higher transparency than pension funds with declaration of the holding mix, NAV values at regular intervals.
    • Evaluating funds: The investor needs to decide a fund based on the desired corpus sum and other parameters like the track record of the fund manager in delivering returns, withdrawal conditions and charges, fund management expenses and risks.
    • Taxes that need to be paid: Long term capital gains in case of equity funds are taxable for gains in excess of Rs 1 lakh, and with indexation on gains from debt funds. Eligible for tax benefits u/s 80C of the Income Tax Act. The investor is liable to capital gains tax at the time of each switch over.

    Advantage of professional fund management: The investor can benefit from the expertise of professional fund managers, who would manage the asset allocation, portfolio rebalancing and risk mitigation aspects of the retirement fund. The returns would generally be higher than those from an insurance-based pension product.

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    The Baseline
    01 Oct 2019
    Top Recommendations by Analysts this Week

    Top Recommendations by Analysts this Week

    by Ritmbarah Arora

    Recent news on corporate tax cuts notwithstanding, stocks have been volatile and white-knuckled in the markets in the lead-up to results. Analysts however, still have their eye on key stocks that they believe will deliver value in the coming months. See all recommendations here.

    • Axis Direct Recommends NOCIL: Navi Mumbai headquartered NOCIL Ltd. offers basic organic chemicals engaged in the business of rubber chemicals. The products manufactured by the company are used by the tire industry and other rubber processing industries. Axis Direct expects the stock to be profitable as revenues and earnings are expected to grow at 9% and 13% CAGR over the FY19-21E.

    The revenue and earnings growth according to the analysts, will be driven by the dominant position of NOCIL in the domestic rubber chemicals market, increase in rubber demand, robust capacity expansion, high entry barriers led by strong technical expertise and continuous R&D and foray into newer margin value added products. NOCIL recently started supplying to the US market with an initial export of 500KT of quantity. Axis Direct recommended buying of this stock when the price was Rs 104.55. Since then, the price of the stock has seen an incremental growth by 7.17% and is expected to reach a target of Rs137 after Sept 21E earnings, as per Axis Direct report. 

    • Motilal Oswal Recommends Bharti Airtel: New Delhi headquartered Bharti Airtel is a global telecommunications services company. Amidst the controversial tussle of Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio, Motilal Oswal suggests to buy the shares of Bharti Airtel which targets a price of Rs420. Though the recommendation made at Rs356.40 has seen a decline in share price of 3.13% since then, analysts say that "the ARPU accretion from broadband subscribers is likely to grow with EBITDA CAGR of 12% over FY19-21 that will drive the stock price". Out of the incremental revenue growth, 70% is expected to flow to EBITDA. 
    • ICICI Securities Recommends Radico Khaitan: Headquartered at Rampur, Uttar Pradesh, Radico Khaitan Ltd. manufactures industrial alcohol, Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), country liquor and fertilizers. It is the fourth largest liquor company of India. ICICI Direct recommends a buy on this stock with a target of Rs400. The stock price has increased by 1.91% since the stock was recommended at Rs319.80.

    The revenue of Radico Khaitan is expected to grow at 12% CAGR to Rs2646 crore in FY19-21E.EBITDA margins are expected to remain flat at 16.5% in FY21E with absolute EBITDA growing 12% to Rs437 crore. PAT is anticipated to grow at 24% in FY19-21 CAGR to Rs298 crore, higher than the expected growth on the EBITDA front. RoE and RoCE should remain healthy at 16.5% and 19.7% respectively in FY21.

    • Ashoka Buildcon Recommended by HDFC Securities: Nashik headquartered Ashoka Builcon Ltd. is an infrastructure development company. The company is engaged in the business of construction and maintenance of roads, supporting services to land support-operation of toll roads and others. HDFC Securities suggests buying this stock with a target price of Rs 220. Though the stock has witnessed a decline of 2.46% since recommendation was made at Rs109.70, HDFC Securities' point in its favor is that it maintained 25-30% standalone revenue growth for FY20E and Rs40-60 bn of new order inflows. Ashoka Buildcon is anticipated to deliver 19.6% FY19-21E revenue CAGR which will largely be driven by EPC revenue CAGR of 21.4%.
    • APL Apollo Tubes Recommended by IDBI Capital: Headquartered at Noida, APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. is a steel tube manufacturer engaged in the business of production of electric resistance welded (ERW) steel tubes. It is the only company which has pan-India presence with warehouses and branch offices in 29 cities. IDBI Capital favors the purchase of stocks in APL Apollo Tubes with a target price of Rs1,920. The stock was recommended at Rs1,309.35 post which the share value increased by 3.87%.

    According to IDBI Capital analysts, APL has outperformed industry growth in the last decade by gaining market share from small and unorganised players which resulted in strong return ratio of around 19% over FY10-19. With expanded capacity in place, the volumes are expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% over FY19-21E. Also, its EBITDA are expected to grow at CAGR of 24%/45% over FY19-21E, respectively. 

    Despite volatilty in markets, some analysts see short-term headwinds as a distraction from the long-term potential. Arun Kumar, Market Strategist at Reliance Securities comments, “Smart investors are nibbling on some of these stocks were value is relatively cheap with limited downside. From a time horizon of two to three years, one can accumulate some of the good stocks over the next few months."

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    The Baseline
    27 Sep 2019
    Screener: Stocks receiving upgrades from brokerages

    Screener: Stocks receiving upgrades from brokerages

    The market has been pretty volatile over the last few weeks, despite government efforts to shore up investor sentiment with corporate tax cuts and other announcements. Brokers have largely been conservative with their calls, although some stocks still got multiple broker target price and recommendation upgrades. This stock screener tracks stocks that within the last one month, received upgrades from brokers in either target price, or recommendation, where the analyst moved their call from a SELL or HOLD to a BUY. 

    These stocks include FMCG firm Dabur India, and telecom company Bharti Airtel. Airtel has been a source of real caution for investors despite its dominance in the Indian telecom space, due to the high debt on its books. However, management recently announced efforts to cut its debt by half by the end of FY20, to Rs. 500 billion. Share price of the stock has risen since the announcement. For the full stock screener, click here. 

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    The Baseline
    16 Sep 2019
    What is the real price of the things we buy?

    What is the real price of the things we buy?

    by Parul

    How do you feel after you buy an expensive car, or a Snickers chocolate? Shouldn't you include that in the price?

    The price of something isn't just the cost of what we pay. The real, hidden price includes everything we feel about what we buy - excitement, enthusiasm, happiness, guilt, regret. And this is very different from person to person. 

    Let's for example, take a stock or mutual fund investment. One kind of investor, who is very enthusiastic about investing, may snap up a stock - for example, Titan at what he thinks is a bargain price of Rs. 1065.3 on August 21st.  He then watches as the price climbs and falls, to Rs. 1,037 before rising to Rs. 1,123.4 on September 13. That's a gain of +5.45% in less than a month, and he is excited and pleased. 

    Another more aggressive investor may have bought Titan expecting a jump of 10% in share price as markets recovered. He may feel regret at the purchase because he missed out on bigger buys while putting money on Titan.

    A third, very nervous investor may have watched the stock initially fall to Rs. 1,037 on September 4, and get extremely upset at the price fluctuations. 

    The true cost of purchase is thus very different for different people - whether it is purchasing a stock, a box of sweets - where the price you pay is guilt after consumption, or buying a fancy new car - where the price is explaining the purchase to your wife. 

    It is important for investors to ask themselves: how will I feel about this on purchase? Are you the nervous kind of buyer, who would be happier with fixed deposits and low risk mutual funds, or the moderate investor, who is happy with good gains on blue chips? Or is it only the really risky investments that excite you? Knowing who you are helps you figure out the real cost of your purchase. Because there is definitely is one, and it is not just the price you pay in rupees. 

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