Adani Wilmar Ltd. share price target

• For Q3FY25, the revenue increased 31.4% YoY (+16.6% QoQ) to INR 168,593 Mn, which is in line with our estimate of -0.9%.
• EBITDA increased 56.9.1% YoY (+28.6% QoQ) to INR 7,916 Mn, which beat our estimate. EBITDA margin improved to 76bps YoY (+44 bps QoQ) to 4.7%, outperforming our estimate by 138bps.

For Q2FY25, the revenue increased 17.9% YoY (+2.1% QoQ) to INR 144,605 Mn, which is in line with our estimate of 0.8%.
The Food & FMCG segment recorded a strong revenue growth of 34.0% YoY (+12.1% QoQ), fueled by increased outlet penetration, and repeat purchases of food products.

In Q1FY25, AWL’s revenue stood at INR 14,686 Mn, up 9.6% YoY/+7.0% QoQ, which slightly missed our estimate by 1.3%.
The Company's sales volume surged notably in Edible Oils +12.0% YoY/+0.7% QoQ and Foods +42.0% YoY/+16.6% QoQ), buoyed by the expanded retail presence.

In Q4FY24, AWLTD’s revenue was INR 132,380 Mn, reflecting a 3.2% increase QoQ and a 4.6% decrease YoY. This performance marginally fell short of our projected estimate by 0.6%.

For Q3FY24, AWLTD’s revenue was at INR 128,284 Mn, a decline of 16.9% YoY but an improvement of 4.6% QoQ. Overall volume growth was 5.0% YoY, driven by the Food & FMCG and Industrial Essentials segments.

For Q2FY24, AWLTD’s revenue was INR 1,22,672 Mn which was a decline of 13.3% YoY/ 5.1% QoQ while total volumes grew by 10.6% YoY/ -2.0% QoQ. Revenue for the Edible Oil segment declined by 19.5% YoY/ 8.2% QoQ, due to a big correction in edible oil prices in Q1FY24 and Q2FY24 even as volume growth was 3.7% YoY/ -4.5% QoQ.

AWL continues to witness recovery in volumes (+11% YoY) with sustained strong performance in foods segments (+18% YoY volume growth; >40% revenue growth in branded foods segment over last 8 quarters) and gradual recovery in edible oils segment (+12% YoY volume growth in branded edible oils).

Adani Wilmar Ltd (AWL) recorded healthy volume growth of 25% in Q1FY24, with broad-based growth across all segments. The edible oil segment reported the highest volume growth of 27% on a YoY basis, followed by Food & FMCG and Industry essentials of 21% each respectively.

AWL had another unusual quarter due to macro headwinds leading to revenue decline of 12% YoY (14% YoY decline in edible oil segment revenues). Profitability continued to be impacted by multiple headwinds (~INR 3bn impact due to high cost inventory, hedges dis-alignment and tariff rate quota disparity).

India today is in sweet spot in the world owing to increasing confidence of global investors, rising consumer spending, increasing adoption of technology etc. The company is witnessing the transformation of India, marked by rapid economic growth, enhanced literacy rates, and increase in women workforce participation.

AWL recorded a revenue of INR 1,38,726 mn in Q4FY23, a dip of 7% from INR 1,49,173 mn in Q4FY22. The sales of edible oil were at INR 1,23,720 mn in Q4FY22 and it went down to INR 1,07,900 mn in Q4FY23, a reduction of 13%. Due to softening of edible oil prices, the revenue has impacted.

AWL had another unusual quarter due to macro headwinds leading to revenue decline of 7% YoY (13% YoY decline in edible oil segment revenues). Meanwhile Foods segment continued its momentum with revenue and volume growth of 53% and 38% YoY, respectively.

AWL has reported revenue of INR 1,54,381mn, an increase of 4.3% on a YoY basis and 3.9% on a QoQ basis, with volume growth across all the segments and good progress to gain market share across key product categories. Growth was driven by the extension of distribution networks, an increase in direct reach across urban and rural markets, and excellent execution in alternate channels.

AWL had a reasonable quarter with 16% YoY volume growth driven by stability in market prices of edible oil and improvement in consumer demand. Foods segment continued its momentum with revenue and volume growth of 45% and 27% YoY, respectively (impacted sequentially due to duty on rice exports).

Adani Wilmar Ltd. (AWL) reported revenue growth of 4.3% YoY/-3.9% QoQ to INR 1,41,500 Mn in Q2FY23. Volumes grew by 9% YoY primarily led by strong growth in Food and FMCG and Industry Essentials.

Sept Update 2022 Proxy play to the high growth packaged food segment

Increasing penetration resulted in market share gain AWL’s focus on penetration led growth resulted in market share gains across segment. The company continues to be market leader in Edible Oil with market share of 18.7% on standalone basis while on consolidated basis (including market share of JV KTV Foods) it is 19.7%

Adani Wilmar Ltd is one of the few large FMCG food companies in India to offer most of the primary kitchen commodities for Indian consumers, including edible oil, wheat flour, rice, pulses...

Adani Wilmar being a joint venture between the Adani group and Wilmar group enjoys the backing and networks of the Adani group. The company benefits from its parentage, leveraging the in-depth understanding of local...

Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited, J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, BofA Securities India Limited, Credit Suisse Securities (India) Private Limited, ICICI Securities Limited, HDFC Bank Limited and BNP Pariba...