Agriculture share price target

Monsoon gazing ends: India's cumulative rainfall in JuneSeptember 2015 was 14% lower thanLPA15%/14%/15%innorthwest/centralIndia/southPeninsulaand6%innorthand eastIndia.About64%ofthemetsubdivisionhasreceivedexcess/normalmonsoonandrest...

the country until July was 13% higher than LPA higher by 20%/15%/28% in central India/southPeninsula/northwestIndiaand1%lowerinnorthandeastIndia.About92%of the met subdivision has received excess/normal monsoon and rest deficient/scanty....

look and found that rainfall still plays a vital role for India's agriculture and inflation trends. We found no correlation between global food prices and Indian food inflation, implyingthatourcountry'sfoodinflationischieflydrivenbydomesticfactors.Wefound...

Chambal Fertilisers (CHMB) 4QFY15 EBITDA was muted at Rs 450mn (-22% YoY) led by lower urea production. Urea plant (Gadepan-II) was shut for 52 days owing to unviability of production beyond the cutoff limits (due to higher RLNG prices and muted international price of urea). Net loss was Rs 62mn.

IMD has forecasted a belownormal monsoon in 2015, however, regionwide rainfall distributionforecastwillbemostcrucialinordertogaugefullimpactofpoormonsoon ontheagriculturesector.Concernsarethere;however,theseareearlydays,asthere...

Rallis Indias 4QFY15 revenues were muted at Rs 3.2bn (-2.9% YoY) led by unfavorable climate during the Rabi season. Falling RM prices and better product mix boosted EBITDA margin to 13.8% ( 120bps) and EBITDA grew to Rs 444mn ( 6.4%). Lower tax rate further boosted PAT to Rs 213mn ( 10.5%).

Institute of Meteorological department (IMD) released India Monsoon (JuneSeptember Rainfall) forecast today. As per their model, monsoon for 2015 is expected to be below normal (93% +/ 5% of Long Period Average). Data also reflects that there is higher...

Unseasonal rains, lowers prospects of price hike in Urea/Cotton seed price: Unseasonal rain and hail over northern, central and parts of western India in the 1st fortnight of March have taken a toll on rabi acreage, particularly wheat (12 mn hect of the 30 mn hect, has been affected). Adverse impact is also felt on pulses,...

The three variables to look at analyzing the industry's growth are Agricultural Crop Yield, Commodity Price Increases and Volume growth of Crop Protection Chemicals. Out of these three variables, Crop Protection Chemicals volume increase can be considered to be dependent upon Agricultural Crop Yields and Commodity Price Increase. Thus an analysis of the time series evolution in these two independent variables and the dependent variable becomes important.