Agriculture share price target

Over FY1992-2022, milk production has grown every year irrespective of deficient or excess rainfall. We note production has increased even in those years when monsoon deficiency was higher than 15%. The correlation coefficient between monsoon deficiency and milk production is just 0.17 over FY1992-2022.

Important observations for milk prices: (1) cattle feed prices have stabilized, (2) global SMP prices have corrected 37.6% YoY, (3) there is steady deceleration in milk inflation in South India.

Wholesale milk prices continue to increase both MoM and YoY. We note heatwave, higher global SMP prices as well as inflation in cattle feed prices as key reasons for higher milk prices. We model the milk procurement prices to continue to rise in coming quarters with re-opening up of the economy.

Fertiliser sales declined 17% YoY in August driven by 48% decline in DAP sales (to 6.5 lakh tons). Urea/NPK sales declined 5%/8% to 2.8/1.1 mn tons. Imported fertiliser sales declined 39% to 0.9 mn tons due to 69%/26% decline...

We have Accumulate rating on CRIN with TP of Rs 991. Higher NB subsidy substantially reduces the impact of rising raw material prices and risk of reduction in volumes due to potential sharp price hikes (~30-50%). Higher subsidy payout and lower MRP coupled with strong underlying demand...

Bayer (TP- 6505, Accumulate) from our top picks, due to declining agrochemical application on maize crop. We are sticking to Rallis (TP- Rs 321, Hold) and Coromandel International (TP- Rs 981, Accumulate) as our top...

Bayer India - In our coverage universe, we increase Bayer's topline/EBITDA/PAT estimates by 10%/9%/5% for FY22 and 12%/14%/8% for FY23E to factor in better business growth, driven by management's aggression for market share gains. We...

growth story remains intact. We roll forward UPL valuation from Sep22 to FY23 with revised target price of Rs 659 (Previous Rs 601) but downgrade it to HOLD from Accumulate, due to recent run up in stock price. The resumption of depreciation of Brazilian Real against USD may pose challenge for UPL in the short term. Dhanuka Agritech (TP Rs 953) and Rallis (TP Rs 321) are top picks in our space. 6-8% consumption growth: On ground consumption has grown @ 6-8% driven by demand from South, East and Central India. For companies like PI, Dhanuka,...

Maintain reduce rating (TP- Rs 676) on CRIN due to capacity constraints in NPK and likely headwinds on the raw material side starting 4Q. We are positive on Urea companies due to healthy volumes, significantly lower outstanding subsidy burden leading to lower in interest cost & improvement in return ratios....

We maintain reduce rating (TP- Rs 676) on CRIN due to capacity constraints in NPK and likely headwinds on the raw material side starting 4Q. We are positive on Urea companies given healthy volumes and significantly lower...

GoI's move to provide additional Rs 65000 crs of fertiliser subsidy is positive We maintain reduce rating (TP- Rs 676) on CRIN due to capacity constraints in NPK and likely headwinds on the raw material side starting 4Q...

GoI's move to provide additional Rs 65000 crs of fertiliser subsidy is positive We maintain reduce rating (TP- Rs 676) on CRIN due to capacity constraints in NPK and likely headwinds on the raw material side starting 4Q...