Transportation share price target

In September 2024, the total number of passengers carried by Indian domestic airlines increased 6.4% YoY to 130.3 lakh. Total departures by scheduled carriers increased by 2.6% YoY to 86,275.

In August 2024, the total number of passengers carried by Indian domestic airlines increased 5.7% YoY to 131.3 lakh. Total departures by scheduled carriers increased by 3% YoY to 88,675.

In July 2024, the total number of passengers carried by Indian domestic airlines increased 6.9% YoY to 129.9 lakh. Total departures by scheduled carriers increased by 2.3% YoY to 86,991.

In May 2024, the total number of passengers carried by Indian domestic airlines increased 4.4% YoY to 138 lakh. Total departures by scheduled carriers declined by 2.6% YoY to 88,523.

In April 2024, the total number of passengers carried by Indian domestic airlines increased 2.4% YoY to 132 lakh. However, total departures by scheduled carriers declined by 0.7% YoY to 86,245.

In March 2024, the total number of passengers carried by domestic airlines in India increased by 3.7% YoY to 133.7 lakh. However, total departures by scheduled carriers declined by 1.2% YoY to 89,297.

The total number of passengers carried by domestic airlines rose by 8.3% YoY in December to 138 lakh. Total departures by scheduled carriers increased by 1.9% YoY to 88,117.

We hosted the management of two companies engaged in the railway segment in our Nuvama Emerging Ideas Conference 2023,' namely RITES (RITE) and GPT Infraprojects (GPT).

Q1FY24 marked the third successive quarter of subdued earnings for the logistics companies under our coverage. Key points: 1) almost all the covered companies performed below our expectations; 2) shipments/volumes increased across the board, but fell short of our expectations; 3) street has cut its EBITDA estimates and target prices for all the covered companies except Gateway Distriparks (GDL) and Mahindra Logistics (MLL).

We expect Q1FY24 to have been a muted quarter with limited traction in volume growth across sectors. Cargo volumes handled by major ports grew only 1.8% YoY in Q1FY24 (vs 8.9% YoY growth in Q1FY23) and containerised rail volumes were up by a mere 0.6% YoY (vs 8.4% YoY growth in Q1FY23).

The total number of passengers carried by domestic airlines rose by 15.2% YoY in May to 132.2 lakh. Total departures by scheduled carriers also increased by 1.7% YoY to 86,319.

Q4FY23 was an uneasy quarter for most companies under our coverage with slip in margins and price hikes not being fully absorbed. Key highlights: 1) Volume grew for surface logistics companies, but slipped for rail companies; 2) trade imbalance coupled with lower EXIM volume QoQ resulted in lower margins for rail companies.

The total number of passengers carried by domestic airlines rose by 21% YoY in April to 128.9 lakh. Total departures by scheduled carriers also increased YoY to 86,883.

Total domestic airline passengers increased by 21.4% YoY and 6.8% MoM to 128.9 lakh in March 2023. Departures by scheduled carriers rose 13.6% YoY to 90,423.

We expect Q4FY23 to be another muted quarter with volume growth across sectors such as FMCG and e-commerce continuing to show limited traction. However, automotive growth continues to stay relatively better.

In Q4, while surface continued its strong run; rail, port made a comeback. Retail prices of petrol, diesel stayed unchanged and remained at highs but had no bearing on domestic freight movement, likely due to higher inventory filling at retail stores, more volume led growth in FMCG companies due to lower commodity prices for certain products and higher e-commerce shipments.