Rupee and Forex Movement share price target

Spot gold erased its earlier losses and ended the day on a positive
note amid weakness in the dollar and correction in the global treasury
yields . Precious metals initially moved lower as most investors liquidated their holdings ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.

Spot gold prices pared its earlier gains amid rebound in the dollar
after sticky US PCE data increased the probability that the Federal
Reserve will hold the rate higher for longer
. Both the PCE and Core PCE data of March rose by 0.3%, where as year-on year the PCE price index in March jumped to 2.7% against previous reading of 2.5%

• Spot gold prices trimmed its earlier gains amid higher US treasury
yields but prices managed to settle higher after the US advance GDP
numbers indicated slower growth in the first quarter
. Meanwhile, rise
in advance GDP price index the broadest inflationary indicator raised
the bets that Fed would not cut the rates before September.

Spot gold prices steadied near $2320 as most investors remained
cautious ahead of the key economic numbers from US, which would
bring more clarity on future interest rate path. Meanwhile stronger dollar and higher US treasury yields checked the upside in the bullions
.

Spot Gold prices settled lower and hit the lowest level in last
2 weeks amid reduced safe haven demand as geopolitical tension eased in the
Middle east. However, prices recovered its losses towards later part
of the day after weaker than US manufacturing and service PMI data
weighed on the dollar and treasury yields and supported the rebound in bullions.

The USDINR traded in a tight, narrow range on Thursday, as inflows into the domestic market are offsetting the impact of the firm dollar and subdued movement in Asian currencies. Dollar Index has spiked to elevated levels of 105, US 10-year yields have witnessed an uptick towards 4.30%.

The USDINR traded in a tight, narrow range on Thursday, as inflows into the domestic market are offsetting the impact of the firm dollar and subdued movement in Asian
currencies. Analysis of the weekly option chain shows that the highest Call open interest buildup is seen at the 83.50, while, on the Put side, the highest open interest build-up is seen at the 83.25 strike.

The USDINR traded slightly higher on Wednesday, tracking firm greenback in
the overseas market and dollar demand from oil importers. Analysis of the weekly option
chain shows that the substantial open interest build-up is seen at the 83.50 and 83.75 strikes, while, on the Put side, the highest open interest build-up is seen at the 83.25 strike.

The USDINR pair wrapped up the day on an all-time high on Friday, mirroring
the strength of the US dollar and the weakness observed in Asian currencies. The dollar index has marked a high of 104.50, and along with the surge, it has reclaimed its short and long-term moving averages.

The dollar index formed two consecutive price rejections and declined towards 103.20, as did the US 10-year yields after the Fed left the rates unchanged during the 5th meeting and indicated expectations of three rate cuts later in the year. Analysis of the weekly option chain shows that the
highest Call open interest build-up is seen at the 83.25 strike, while, on the Put side, the highest open interest build-up is seen at the 83.00 strike.

USDINR March futures, closed higher on Tuesday, in line with the strengthening dollar index. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the dollar index has witnessed a steady rise up to 104.00 levels.

Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

USDINR futures ended lower on Thursday, tracking firm domestic equities. The dollar index spiked to 103.50 due to a higher-than-expected rise in the US PPI number, but the dollar index is still trading below the 20 DMA, i.e., 103.75.

USDINR futures ended higher on Wednesday, tracking outflows from domestic equities. Analysis of the weekly option chain shows that the highest Call open interest build-up is seen at the 83.00 strike, while, on the Put side, the highest open interest build-up is seen at the 82.75 strike.

USDINR futures ended in a tight, narrow range on Tuesday, as rising crude oil prices are offsetting the impact of inflows into the domestic market. Analysis of the weekly option chain shows that the highest Call open interest build-up is seen at the 83.00 strike, while, on the Put side, the highest open interest build-up is seen at the 82.75 strike.

USDINR futures expiring on March 26, 2024, ended up on Monday, tracking a weak domestic market. Analysis of the weekly option chain shows that the highest Call open interest build-up is seen at the 83.00 strike, while, on the Put side, the highest open interest build-up is seen at the 82.50 strike.

USDINR futures maturing on March 26, 2024, closed lower on Thursday, tracking inflows into domestic equities and weakness in the dollar index. Analysis of the weekly option chain shows that the highest Call open interest build-up is seen at the 82.8750 strike, while, on the Put side, the highest open interest build-up is seen at the 82.75 strike.

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USDINR March futures ended slightly lower on Monday, tracking firm domestic equities. This came as declining crude oil prices offset the impact of outflows.

Yesterday, the dollar index failed to sustain above the 20 DMA of 104.20 due to higher-than-expected US unemployment claims. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US jumped by 13,000 to 215,000 in the week ending February 24th, rebounding sharply from the five-week low in the earlier period and firmly above market expectations of 210,000.