Aviation share price target

The average number of daily fliers in Aug’22-TD stands at ~326k vs 316k for the month of Jul’22.

Average daily fliers stood at ~304k for Aug’22-TD vs 316k for the month of Jul’22. For Aug’22-TD, the average number of daily departures declined from 2,558 to 2,449, and number of fliers per departure remained stable at 124.

IndiGo sees moderation but seems to have crossed the 55% level structurally as of now beyond tactical ups and downs. In May’22, the market share of Air India/IndiGo shrank 80/40bps MoM to 7.8%/57.9%, while that of SpiceJet/Go First/Air Asia expanded 40/50/30bps MoM to 9.5%/10.6%/5.7%.

128 in Dec21). Elevated ATF prices (up 13% QoQ) to be a party spoiler shaving off gains from of an improved operating and yield environment, thereby reducing the extent of sequential narrowing of losses. We expect LCCs under our coverage i.e. INDIGO/ SJET to report 76.4%/ 30.9% YoY increase in sales and a loss of Rs4.7bn/Rs5.5bn respectively. With uncertainty of 3rd wave looming large, we continue to prefer INDIGO on the back of 1) its relative...

The number of weekly average daily fliers stood at 374k (93% of the pre-covid average during Apr’19-Feb’20) in the week ended (W.E) 27th Nov’21 vs 364k in the W.E. 20th Nov’21. For W.E. 27th Nov’21, the average number of daily departures increased to 2,755 from 2,712 in the previous week, and the number of fliers per departure rose to 136 from 132.

Tata Sons has emerged as the winner of Air India with winning enterprise value (EV) bid of Rs180bn, split between Rs27bn equity and Rs153bn debt. Tatas will now own complete commercial operations of Air India and Air India Express along with 50% stake in the ground handling company Air India SATS Airport Services Private Limited (AISATS). This makes Tata the owner of three airline operations namely (100% of Air India, 84% of Air Asia India and 51% of Vistara). These three combined entities will now own 26% PAX market share in domestic segment as per FY22-TD statistics.

May21 to 113 in Sep21). Although the improving operating and yield environment will enable narrowing of losses sequentially, 59.8% YoY increase in ATF prices will lead to widening of losses YoY. We expect LCCs under our coverage i.e. INDIGO/ SJET to report 82.5%/29.3% YoY increase in sales and an adj. loss of Rs18bn/Rs5.7bn respectively. We continue to prefer INDIGO on the back of 1) its relative balance sheet strength, 2) lowest cost...

Weekly average daily fliers came in at 231k in the week ended (W.E) 25th Sep’21 vs 235k in the W.E. 18th Sep’21. For the W.E. 25th Sep’21, average number of departures flat at 2,038. The number of fliers per departure declined marginally to 113 vs 114 in the prior week. Average weekly PLF improved for all airlines led by Air Asia.