Oil and Gas share price target

Northvolt - When giga ambitions faced failure of gigantic proportions The most ambitious project of the West to challenge the dragon's dominance in battery manufacturing, turned out to be a damp squib with the company Northvolt filing for bankruptcy protection in the US in Nov'24, followed by in Sweden in Mar'25. A decade of advancements in Li-ion, Na-ion and Li-metal batteries led by Tesla veterans, funded of ~USD15bn, an order book of +USD50bn, and backed by the likes of Volkswagen, BMW, Goldman Sachs and Baillie Gifford, went up in smoke. As several Indian companies are focusing on new energy, it is important to look at the challenges that lie ahead. Some Indian companies like RIL have demonstrated phenomenal execution capabilities even with unrelated diversifications like in telecom and retail in the past. However, the know-how built by Chinese, Japanese and South Korean companies over...

companies (NOCs) dominate the global refining sector with 54% market share. Global demand for petroleum products is fading with call on refined products almost flat at 85.9mnbopd in 2030 vs 85.6mnbopd in 2024. This situation would normally call for capacity rationalization. However, the rush to secure domestic availability is expected to lead to expansion of global capacity by 2.6mnbopd through 2030, net of closures of 1.6mnbopd. Almost all of the...

Oil prices decline, LPG under-recovery improves: A slew of concerns over trade tariffs and global GDP combined with increased supply of 1.2mnbopd resulted in Brent diving to below USD60/bbl for a while and then picking up subsequently to average USD68/bbl during the quarter, a decline from USD75.7/bbl in Q4FY25. Decline in oil prices would result in falling realizations of ~8% QoQ for ONGC and Oil India. Decline in oil prices would aid gross marketing margins on petrol and diesel sequentially from Rs10.4/6.4/lit to Rs12/10/lit respectively. Decline in benchmark LPG prices would also reduce...

LPG distributors are demanding a sharp increase in commission to Rs150/cyl, nearly double the current Rs73.08/cyl. With OMCs already estimated to face under-recoveries of ~Rs400bn in FY25 due to constrained pricing flexibility, any further increase in distributor marginsif not passed throughcould worsen the financial stress. Given the stretched valuations that the companies are trading at currently and expectations of a bounce back in crude prices to USD70-80/bbl in the near term amid inability to pass on increase in fuel cost to customers, we maintain our cautious view on OMCs. We downgrade rating on...

A Tale of Two Cities: MGL continues to post robust volume growth, while IGL faces stagnation in its core Delhi market MoPNG has cut APM allocation for CGD entities and accordingly revised domestic gas allocation for MGL and IGL is ~18% and ~20% lower than previous allocation. The shortfall will be met by New Well Gas which is Brent linked. We believe sourcing cost post de-allocation may not increase significantly due to softening Brent and LNG prices, and with price hikes undertaken by both the companies in April, the impact may not be detrimental. We re-iterate positive...

We interacted with Mr. Mukesh Sahdev, Senior VP & Global Head of Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy, to assess the evolving oil price trajectory within the new global trade environment. The outlook suggests that oil prices may have bottomed out, with forecasted demand far ahead of supply in the peak MarAug'25. Average crude prices are expected to moderate from USD80/bbl in 2024 to USD75/bbl in 2025. However, geopolitical supply risks and macroeconomic uncertainties, including recession probabilities, are key swing...

QoQ. ONGC and OINL are liley to report a decline in oil and gas production. CGDs are expected to report sequentially better results owing to partial spreads. We build in steady telecom performance with an ARPU of Rs208; retail...

^Cichlids found in Lake Victoria, Africa, are one of the fastest evolving species. More than five hundred have evolved over past 15,000 years- a relatively short time span with respect to evolution. Not only they are splitting into new species but also changing their appearances to suit different environments. Just like the fast-evolving cichlids, the new energy industry also appears to be evolving very fast. Even if you discount the so-called Baghdad Battery dating back to 200BCE, battery technology has come a long way since the innovation of first modern battery by Alessandro Volta in 1800. From lead-acid batteries of 1859 to alkaline batteries of 1950s to nickel-cadmium batteries of the late twentieth century and lithium-ion batteries of the 21st century, although the evolution has come a long way, but it appears that the...

softening to US$2.5/bbl amid adequate supply, refining margins are likely to decline sequentially. Gross margins on petrol and diesel too have moderated, which could lead to reduced marketing margins in Q4. On the LPG front, under- Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL IN)...

We compare MAHGL and IGL's volume growth, margin trends, profitability and valuations

Economies worldwide have been fire-fighting inflation, but a multiplicity of crises have fuelled price increases in a key input – crude oil. The Red Sea attacks, Ukraine drones targeting Russian refineries, and OPEC production cuts have strained crude supplies.