Media share price target

respectively) after the central Government's revised policy came into effect, few days ago. We believe this is a positive development for multiplexes and phased re-opening can be expected soon. We maintain our positive stance on multiplexes and retain BUY' on PVR with a revised TP of Rs1,589 (earlier Rs1,429) as we increase our target EV/EBITDA multiple to 11.5x (earlier 11x). Our rating & TP on Inox remains unchanged - BUY' with a TP of Rs368....

YoY/21% YoY in Jan/Feb 2021. We expect broadcasters to benefit from this sharp recovery enabling ZEEL to report a 5% YoY growth in domestic ad-revenues. Overall, we expect ZEEL to report 1.7% YoY growth in top-line with 24.2% EBITDA margin. We maintain BUY rating on ZEEL with TP of Rs296 given undemanding valuations and sharp cyclical recovery. Travel & tourism: We expect luggage demand to benefit in 4QFY21 from gradual reopening of schools in Jan/Feb (augurs well for backpack sales) coupled with shift in market share from unorganized to organized players. Overall, while sales...

Hindi movies was relatively muted leading to a 98.5% YoY decline in NBOC's to be higher amid rise in operating expenses post re-opening with no corresponding revenue accretion. We thus, expect PVR and Inox to report Ind-AS adjusted...

Cinema halls were allowed to reopen from October 15 onwards post seven months of shutdown. While this was an encouraging development, footfalls remained weak except for a few Hollywood and regional releases. Expectations of big budget Hindi movies in December, however, did not materialise. Subsequently, PVR and Inox Leisure saw minimal occupancy in mid-single digits. Additionally, employee and other expenses, thereby cash burn, increased during the quarter as screens opened. We estimate EBITDA (ex-Ind-AS) loss of | 120.2 crore for PVR and EBITDA (ex-Ind-AS) loss of...

While PVR (PVRL) is amid its rights issue of Rs3bn, Inox Leisure (INOL) would consider raising funds through rights issue/private placement/QIP on 5th August. We believe that this is a good step to stomach the cash burn amid shutdown and not strain their B/S. Q1FY21 is expected to be a wash-out quarter with Cinemas being shut throughout the quarter. While both PVRL and INOL have taken cost optimization measures to contain the cash-burn, we forecast EBITDA loss of Rs1,308 mn and Rs448 mn respectively. Given the delay in re-opening of Cinemas more movies (across small to mid budget) have opted for OTT-first release and risk of more movies taking this approach cannot be ruled...

Radio space: For our coverage universe we expect a ~75-80% fall in top-line for 1QFY21, as in April 2020 industry volumes/revenues for top 15 markets were ~15%/~15-20% of normal volumes/revenues respectively. We expect April and May to be sub-optimally low on utilization front with gradual recovery in June. Cut back in government ad spends is expected to put added pressure on inventory utilization. We thus expect ENIL/MBL to report a fall in top-line by 79%/75% respectively in 1QFY21. While ENIL is targeting cost reduction of Rs600-700mn in FY21 and MBL has reduced operating cost to Rs100-110mn per month in lockdown given the low...

Radio space: For our coverage universe we expect a ~75-80% fall in top-line for 1QFY21, as in April 2020 industry volumes/revenues for top 15 markets were ~15%/~15-20% of normal volumes/revenues respectively. We expect April and May to be sub-optimally low on utilization front with gradual recovery in June. Cut back in government ad spends is expected to put added pressure on inventory utilization. We thus expect ENIL/MBL to report a fall in top-line by 79%/75% respectively in 1QFY21. While ENIL is targeting cost reduction of Rs600-700mn in FY21 and MBL has reduced operating cost to Rs100-110mn per month in lockdown given the low...

Ad revenue of GEC channels will be impacted by stressed economic setup caused by spread of Covid-19. Subscription revenue, however, will be boosted YoY given the continued tailwinds of NTO. NTO 2.0 is yet to be implemented and clarity on the same is still awaited for impact on subscription growth in FY21E. Subscription growth in Q4FY20 will be aided by strong monetisation of digital platforms. Zee Entertainment is expected to report 25% YoY domestic subscription growth while overall subscription is expected to grow 18% YoY. Domestic ad revenue is expected to decline...

Multiplexes were the first casualty of the Covid-19 led lockdown. The gradual closure of theatres from mid-March onwards and further till April 14 has meant that Q4FY20 as well as Q1FY21 will be hit badly. We expect the lockdown (albeit region specific) to continue at least till May and resumption of optimum operation only from June, 2020 onwards in our base case assumptions. Our interaction with the management and their disclosures through conference call transcripts, reveals that multiplexes are going to invoke Force Majeure to shield themselves from critical costs of rentals (that...