Telecom Services share price target

In Q2FY23, consumer spend on mobile services (post-GST) rose 2.5% QoQ / 20% YoY to Rs490bn (Rs1,961bn annualised). Net revenues rose faster at 3% QoQ / 24% YoY to Rs472bn on lower intercompany settlements.

India's total wireless subscriber base fell slightly to 114 crore in November 2022. On a net basis, there was a loss of 5.2 lakh subscribers.

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its data on subscribers (subs) for Nov’22. Industry-wide active sub-base dipped by 4.5mn MoM (vs rise of 2.8mn in Oct’22 and 0.5mn in past six months) with Bharti Airtel (Bharti) adding 1.0mn subs (vs 0.9mn in past six months).

Reliance Jio Infocomm’s (RJio) Q3FY23 revenue was up 2.1% QoQ to Rs230bn in line with our estimates, while ARPU rose 0.6% QoQ to Rs178 due to higher addition of FTTH subscribers (subs). Sub growth decelerated to 1.2% QoQ (5.3mn net add); nonetheless, it was better than that of peers.

Our Q3FY23 estimates suggest a deceleration in mobile revenue growth across telcos due to SIM consolidation, lower benefit of premiumisation from slowdown in 4G net add, and absence of tariff hikes.

India's total wireless subscriber base falls marginally to 114 crore in October. On a net basis, there is a loss of 18.8 lakh subscribers.

Industry AGR (incl. NLD) in Q2FY23 grew 1.6% QoQ / 16.4% YoY to Rs543bn. Bharti Airtel (Bharti) made an 83bps QoQ gain in AGR market share to 36.3% adding more incremental AGR QoQ (Rs7.6bn) vs RJio (Rs6.6bn).

India's total wireless subscriber base falls marginally to 114 crore subscribers in September. On a net basis, there is a loss of 36.6 lakh subscribers over the month. While Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel have gained subscribers, Vodafone Idea continues to lose subscribers.