Pharmaceuticals & Biotech. share price target

New class of HIV treatment could end the road for Indian players. We raise red flag over Indian drug suppliers who are exposed to Global Fund and sovereign Institutional tender business as the spread of Covid-19 could divert global attention away from serious diseases (Malaria, TB, and AIDS) and the new class of HIV treatment could end the road for Indian ARV (Antiretroviral) suppliers. The immediate threat to Indian suppliers because of Corona virus (SARS-nCOV2) will be felt in near to medium term as 1) COVID has disrupted 85% Global Funds activities for HIV, TB and malaria...

New launches take a back-seat due to lockdown. With an exception to Anti-Infective and Pain many other leading therapies grew in the June month resulting in IPM growth of 2.4%, after two months of consecutive decline. During the lockdown (April-June) phase, Cardiac and Anti-Diabetic were only two therapies that reported growth of 8.4% and 5.5% v/s IPM decline of 5.9%. The biggest beneficiaries here were Torrent pharma (7.4% Rx share in Cardiac), Lupin (9% and 7% Rx share in Anti-diabetic and Cardiac) and ERIS Life (56% of total revenue from Anti-Diabetic and Cardiac)....

New launches take a back-seat due to lockdown. With an exception to Anti-Infective and Pain many other leading therapies grew in the June month resulting in IPM growth of 2.4%, after two months of consecutive decline. During the lockdown (April-June) phase, Cardiac and Anti-Diabetic were only two therapies that reported growth of 8.4% and 5.5% v/s IPM decline of 5.9%. The biggest beneficiaries here were Torrent pharma (7.4% Rx share in Cardiac), Lupin (9% and 7% Rx share in Anti-diabetic and Cardiac) and ERIS Life (56% of total revenue from Anti-Diabetic and Cardiac)....

Q4FY20: Stock-up and adequate inventory in the supply chain holds revenue for domestic and export market. We believe Q1FY21E revenue growth to be 5% YoY while EBITDA and PAT to decline 4% and 15% YoY for our coverage universe assuming 1) domestic players with chronic heavy business model to be not impacted much due to lockdown led restrictions. 2) US (Gx) sales decline of 5% QoQ (3% volume and 2% price erosion) due to delay in shipping consignments, lower new Rx and delayed surgeries 3) major European Countries Rx retail volumes...

Q4FY20: Stock-up and adequate inventory in the supply chain holds revenue for domestic and export market. We believe Q1FY21E revenue growth to be 5% YoY while EBITDA and PAT to decline 4% and 15% YoY for our coverage universe assuming 1) domestic players with chronic heavy business model to be not impacted much due to lockdown led restrictions. 2) US (Gx) sales decline of 5% QoQ (3% volume and 2% price erosion) due to delay in shipping consignments, lower new Rx and delayed surgeries 3) major European Countries Rx retail volumes...

The covid-19 pandemic has taken a toll on various sectors, but the pharmaceutical industry is the only one to buck the trend...

On the business front, despite the nationwide lockdown, domestic growth is expected to remain more or less stable. Exports growth, barring for one or two months due to congestion in all major ports globally, is also expected to remain strong due to 1) currency benefit, 2) slowdown in competition due to delay in new approvals that will be beneficial for existing players and 3) expected demand continuum across the world despite Covid-19. Some windfall is also expected in some critical productsa case in point is Hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug that is likely to be repurposed as a prophylaxis for Covid-19 treatment in some cases....

As most companies from the I-direct healthcare universe maintained sufficient inventories till March 31, 2020, we may not witness a material impact on account of Covid-19 pandemic disturbances on their performance. Despite supply chain issues and restriction on movement of staff during the lockdown period, domestic formulations are likely to maintain their growth tempo on the back of extension of acute season and price hikes. The US pack, on the other hand, is likely to drag numbers due to a higher base. Hospitals may take some hit on revenues due to fewer...

On the business front, despite the nationwide lockdown, domestic growth is expected to remain more or less stable. Exports growth, barring for one or two months due to congestion in all major ports globally, is also expected to remain strong due to 1) currency benefit, 2) slowdown in competition due to delay in new approvals that will be beneficial for existing players and 3) expected demand continuum across the world despite Covid-19. Some windfall is also expected in some critical products- a case in point is Hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug that is likely to be repurposed as a...

The novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, pandemic has caused severe supply-side disruptions in various sectors, earnings will be cut by 10-15%.