Expect ally prices to be around $3,500/t in 2027. ~5mtpa alumina surplus seen in 2026 despite cutbacks. We interacted with an aluminium industry expert to understand current dynamics amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The expert highlighted the status of impacted smelters in the Middle East, which has caused severe supply shocks, taking the market into deficit for CY26. Stress in the physical market is visible in spreads, which are expected to remain elevated in the medium term. The actual supply shock is still yet to come, as inventories in Europe (drawn before CBAM) and the US are still cushioning the market,...