HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Forge, Phoenix Mills, Oil India, Prestige Estates, Aarti Industries, Brigade Enterprises, BSE, Birla Corporation, Star Cement, Sudarshan Chemical, J. Kumar Infraprojects
BSE: BSE delivered a soft quarter with a 5% QoQ revenue decline and lower margins due to an increase in investments. The revenue decline was due to a drop in listing revenue but was offset by higher transaction revenue (cash, Star MF). BSE has lost cash/currency market share but has gained ~3% market share in the derivative segment. The launch of a new derivative contract with a Friday expiry appears promising and is scaling new heights every week. BSE has signed up with top broker members for enabling trading in SENSEX derivatives, which can increase UCCs and boost volumes significantly. BSE has not realised any revenue from the derivative segment in Q1 but we expect it to be at least 2% of FY24E revenue. The steps taken by the new management are yielding results and is likely to boost growth for FY24E. The investments in technology, infra (co-location) and hiring of new mid-level managers have led to an increase in cost, but the margins will expand with growth. We expect a revenue CAGR of ~16% over FY23-26E, led by a revival in transaction revenue. We increase our EPS estimates by ~3/6% for FY24/25E and increase core multiple to 25x. We assign a SoTP-based TP of INR 940, based on 25x core June-25E PAT + CDSL stake + net cash ex SGF. The stock is trading at a core P/E of 33/26x FY24/25E. Maintain ADD. Birla Corporation: We maintain our BUY rating on Birla Corporation (BCORP), with an unchanged target price of INR 1,310/share (8.5x Mar-25E consolidated...