JLR Aug-16 wholesale volumes grew ~28% YoY (-3.8% MoM) to 42,260 units (estimate: 43,500 units), driven by F-Pace and XE. Jaguar volumes grew ~98% YoY to 13,038 units (estimate: 13,500 units), driven XE and F-Pace. However, volumes of other Jaguar models continued to moderate. Land Rover (LR) volumes grew ~10% YoY to 29,222 units (estimate: 30,000 units), driven mainly by growth in Freelander and Discovery Sports. JLR Aug-16 retail volumes grew ~26% YoY (-17% MoM) to 36,926 units, driven by 104% growth in retail volumes of Jaguar and 9% growth for LR. Jaguar retail volume growth was driven by recently launched F-Pace (at ~4.5k units) and XE (+50% YoY).
The stock trades at 13.3x/10.4x FY17/FY18E consolidated EPS. We raise our FY17E/18E EPS estimates by 8%/3%. We also increase our EV/EBITDA multiple for JLR to 4.5x (v/s 4x previously) to factor in a) stronger Cherry JV performance and b) favorable GBP not reflecting in FY18 estimates due to hedges. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR647 (FY18 SOTP-based) for ordinary shares and INR452 for DVR (~30% discount to TP for ordinary shares).
Motilal Oswal