The Indian paint industry - known for its resilience, large operating canvas and strong growth prospects - is sparking interest among investors and analysts alike after the stelar listing of Indigo Paints.

Ahead of this, market leader Asian Paints‘ reported robust December quarter numbers, with double digit revenue growth in year-on-year terms. The company’s revenues are segmented across four major verticals, decorative (84% revenues), industrial (2% revenues), home improvement (2% revenues) and international business (12%). It has 26 paint manufacturing plants, servicing more than 1,50,000 retailers in India. Asian Paints’ stock price has gained 70% from its 52-week low of Rs 1,400 levels it touched last year.

Quick Takes:

• Asian Paints and other paint companies are expected to benefit from the push to affordable housing in the Union Budget 2020-21 via the extension of additional interest deduction of Rs 1.5 lakh by one more year

• Decorative segment volumes surged by 33% YoY driven by pent up demand, festive fervour and strong market share gains

• The company aims to evolve into a complete décor company and has forayed into modular kitchens, bath fittings, sanitaryware, furnishings and light fittings

• The paints industry will see higher competition after Aditya Birla Group company Grasim’s foray with an investment of Rs 5,000 crore over the next three years

Double digit revenue growth in Q3FY21

Driven by pent up demand, festive fervour and strong market share gains, Asian Paints reported an all-round performance with double-digit revenue growth. Boosted by a 33% volume growth in the decorative segment, revenues came in at Rs 6,788 crores in Q3 FY21 rising 25% YoY.

Operating profit jumped one-and-a-half times to Rs 1,788 crores in the December quarter. Operating margins came in at 26.34%, expanding 440 bps YoY. Lower raw material costs, cost rationalization and superior product mix helped in margin expansion. Consequently, net profit grew 62% YoY to Rs 1,238 crores in Q3 FY21.

Moving on to segmental revenue performance, revenues of the paints business (decorative and industrial) grew 25% YoY. Home improvement business’ revenues rose 21% YoY in Q3 FY21. This comprises modular kitchens, kitchen accessories, bath fittings and other home décor products. Revenues of the international business rose by 22% YoY. Except for Ethiopia, Bahrain and Indonesia, there was a strong recovery in Asia and Middle East with all units reporting double digit volume growth.

Growth returns with a vengeance in Q3

After a 38% fall in volumes in the June 2020 quarter, Asian Paints has posted a phenomenal 33% jump in volumes in the December 2020 quarter. The normal revenue growth rate for Asian Paints used to be around 12-15% for the past few years. Q3 FY21 has painted a brighter picture.

After a complete whitewash in April 2020 and partial operations resuming in May, growth clawed back in the month of June (14%) driven by a rebound of demand from tier 3 and 4 cities. In fact, by the end of June, tier 3 and 4 cities had already reached pre-Covid level demand. The revenue growth in the September quarter saw an overall growth surge of 11% YoY. Around 40-50% of Asian Paints’ revenues were back by the quarter ended September 2020, with tier 2 cities too joining the growth momentum.

As the fear of the pandemic receded, people loosened their purse strings for discretionary spending. Households allowed in painters well-equipped with personal protective equipment (PPE) kits, masks and other protective gear to undertake repairs and maintenance, waterproofing and repainting work. And well-established and trusted brands like Asian Paints gained market share from smaller and unorganized players. Asian Paints’ strong focus on the bottom of the customer pyramid through value for money products and waterproofing is standing the company in good stead in the present Covid scenario. This has emerged as a profitable segment over the past 2-3 years.

A wide distribution network and investment in providing painting services for the past 20 years is also reaping benefits for the market leader in the paints industry. To battle customer fears, Asian Paints launched its San Assure service, providing protective equipment gear, PPE kits and sanitizing customers’ premises. 

The 33% volume growth in Q3 surprised analysts. The management says this growth leve is sustainable over the coming quarters Amit Syngle, Managing Director and CEO of Asian Paints said that the rebound in growth in the December quarter was driven by metro and tier I markets coming back on track, contributing to the double-digit growth. Also, strong growth in the premium and luxury range across regions, pent up demand of the Q1 & Q2 quarters, festive demand, and also sturdy performance in projects and large institutional sales also aided the double-digit revenue and volume growth in Q3.

Transformation into a complete decor solutions provider

Over the last few years, Asian Paints has strived to evolve itself into a decor company. Syngle, clarified that the company’s strategy is not focussed on just surface décor. The company had forayed into the kitchen interiors business by acquiring a 49% stake in Sleek International in FY13-14, which later became its wholly-owned subsidiary in FY17-18. It had also entered the bath fittings business with the acquisition of Ess Ess’ front-end business in Fy15.

Although both the bath fittings and kitchen interiors businesses have not been performing well over the past 3-4 years, the management is confident of clocking profitable growth in the next few quarters. In fact, for the first-time the kitchen interiors business has registered EBITDA break-even in the quarter ended December 2020. Revenues of kitchen interiors and the bath fittings business grew 20% and 23% respectively in Q3 FY21. The company also plans to double its Beautiful Homes decor stores (currently at 16) in the next two years. Beautiful Homes stores offer products and solutions across categories of paints, wallpapers, modular kitchens, bath fittings, sanitaryware, furnishings and light fittings.

Competition threatens the dominance of existing players

While Asian Paints is moving ahead with its vision of being a complete decor solutions provider, competition in the domestic paint industry is heating up. Entry of JSW paints last year, and the recent announcement by Grasim Industries’ foray into the Indian paint industry, shows that there will be increasing competition in an industry that is dominated by Asian Paints and Berger Paints (India).

The new entrants have aggressive growth plans. Grasim announced an investment of Rs 5,000 crore over the next three years, focussing mainly on decorative paints. Grasim is aiming to become the second largest player in the industry over a period of time by using its strong brand equity and pan-India distribution presence through Birla White (UltraTech’s brand). JSW paints aims to be among the top three in the industry in the next four years.

The industry’s size at the moment is at around Rs 50,000 crore. It grew at a CAGR of 12% over the past five years. With this increasing competitive intensity, Asian Paints’ growth momentum will be challenged in the coming years.