Personal Finance & Investment
Personal Finance & Investment
TREND | 03 Feb 2020
HDFC Securities
After a mixed bag in FY19, this year was expected to be solid for revenue acceleration and recovery in margins. The co has failed to deliver revenue growth but margins have continued to expand. We expect partial recovery in revenue growth in 4QFY20. We believe various disruptions (Demon, GST, Floods) over the last 2 years delayed the benefits from its non-south investment. Co is now investing behind expanding its distribution and differentiating its revenue profile. We expect co's up-front investments on newer products to start accruing benefits once overall consumption improves. V-Guards 3Q performance was mixed with miss in revenue but beat in margins. Slow revenue growth was on account of weak growth in Stabilizers, Cables and Southern market. Fan and Water Heater posted healthy low double growth. Management has witnessed better growth in Dec-Jan as compared to Oct-Nov, thereby 4Q can be slightly better. The co continued its efforts to expand non-South markets in order to diversify its revenue profile. V-Guard also intends to add 3,000-5,000 retailers/year across the country for the next 5 years. Custom duty increase (10% to 20%) will impact competitive edge for V-Guard for Fans and KEA. We cut EPS estimates by 3-4% for FY20-22 on account of slow growth, rising competition in its growing products and custom duty increase. We value V-Guard at 35x on Dec-21 EPS, with TP of Rs 232. Maintain NEUTRAL.
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