ICICI Securities Ltd.

NSE: ISEC | BSE: 541179 | ISIN: INE763G01038 | Industry: Capital Markets
| Momentum Trap

HDFC Securities
With increased competitive intensity and changing mix, broking yields are expected to further decline. Additionally, regulatory reduction in MF TERs continues to pressure distribution revenues in the short term. Cost control will be a key earnings driver (~14.4% YoY in FY20E). We expect FY19-22E APAT CAGR of 12.7%. A rally in equity markets coupled with increased retail participation remains a key risk to our call. Higher than expected distribution and IB revenues offsets softer broking revenues. Cost decline is lower than expectation. We increase FY20E/21E/22E APAT estimates by 7.6/8.1/9.0% to build in better distribution and IB outlook. We rate ISEC a NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 288 (14x Sep-21E EPS).
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