441.80 1.85 (0.42%)
NSENov 25, 2020 03:31 PM
The 11 reports from 3 analysts offering long term price targets for ICICI Securities Ltd. have an average target of 671.67. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 52.03% from the last price of 441.80.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-10-30||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||463.45||770.00||463.45 (-4.67%)||74.29||Buy|
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AU Small Finance Bank: AUBANK's 2QFY21 net earnings were ~110% ahead of estimates, buoyed by gains from the stake sale in AAVAS. Adjusted earnings, too, were ~28% ahead of estimates, on account of lower-than-expected provisions. The bank saw a sustained improvement in collection efficiency and did not make incremental COVID-19 related provisions. While these trends are promising, we continue to model for a sharp rise in GNPAs and elevated provisions in FY21E. Strong CASA growth, led by retail deposits, was another positive. We like the bank for its strong fundamentals and believe that its long-term prospects remain intact. We maintain ADD with a target price of Rs 770. ICICI Securities: Led by healthy trading activity (ADTV cash/derivative: +3.5/32.3% QoQ), ISEC reported pure broking revenue growth of 10.2% QoQ. ISEC also gained market share in the cash segment by 240/40bps YoY/QoQ to 11.1%. This primarily drove the 12.5% PAT beat. We believe this is cyclical, and as the volatility and retail participation reduce, we expect ISEC's market share to normalise. Additionally, we remain watchful of the impact that increased upfront margin requirements could have. Discount brokers acquiring a higher client share remains a concern. Driven by the revenue and PAT beat, we increase our FY21/22/23E APAT estimates by 8.8/3.2/4.3%. Given the highly cyclical nature of the business, we are concerned that we may be closer to peak earnings and worry that the market may be giving it a closer-to-peak multiple. We maintain an ADD rating with a higher target price of Rs 550, i.e. 23x Sep-22E EPS....
|2020-10-29||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||465.10||550.00||465.10 (-5.01%)||24.49||Accumulate|
We maintain an ADD rating with a higher target price of Rs 550, i.e. 23x Sep-22E EPS. Led by healthy trading activity (ADTV cash/derivative: +3.5/32.3% QoQ), ISEC reported pure broking revenue growth of 10.2% QoQ. ISEC also gained market share in the cash segment by 240/40bps YoY/QoQ to 11.1%. This primarily drove the 12.5% PAT beat. We believe this is cyclical, and as the volatility and retail participation reduce, we expect ISEC's market share to normalise. Additionally, we remain watchful of the impact that increased upfront margin requirements could have. Discount brokers acquiring a higher client share remains a concern. Driven by the revenue and PAT beat, we increase our FY21/22/23E APAT estimates by 8.8/3.2/4.3%. Given the highly cyclical nature of the business, we are concerned that we may be closer to peak earnings and worry that the market may be giving it a closer-to-peak multiple.
|2020-09-11||ICICI Securities Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||473.55||625.00||473.55 (-6.70%)||41.47||Buy|
11 September 2019 by deepening the partner network and enhancing the tie-up with ICICIB, 2) increasing wallet share of clients with a focus on ARPU, 3) providing a better engagement experience, 4) introducing digital agility, and 5) enhancing operational efficiency (i.e. reducing the C/I ratio). ISEC acquired 0.45m customers in FY20, largely similar to earlier years. While market share in terms of NSE-active clients improved 40bp YoY to 10% in FY20, the company is focused on increasing it further. ICICI Securities Over the past two years, ISEC has been focused on improving its digital capabilities and thus enhancing customer experience. The network of IFAs, sub-brokers, investment advisors (IAs), and accounts payables (APs) grew 32% YoY to 9,400+ in FY20, which further increased to 12,500+ in 1QFY21. As a result, the number of clients sourced through partnerships grew 70% YoY. ISEC launched a number of new propositions in the year.
|2020-07-23||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||541.00||540.00||541.00 (-18.34%)||Target met||Sell|
We maintain a REDUCE rating with a target price of Rs 540, i.e. 25x FY22E EPS Increased cash market activity is expected to boost broking revenue by 16.3% YoY in FY21E. We believe this would be cyclical, and as volatility and retail participation recede, we expect ISECs market share to drop back to ~8%. We remain concerned about discount brokers acquiring a higher share in active clients and believe the yields would remain pressured. We expect a muted year for distribution income (-10.7% YoY) as average MF assets and life insurance sales could remain subdued. We expect the C/I ratio to improve substantially to 50.8% in FY21E, driving FY21/22E PAT growth of 18.5/3.9% YoY. Given the highly cyclical nature of the business, we are concerned that we may be closer to peak earnings and worry that the market may be ascribing a closer-to-peak multiple.
|2020-07-01||ICICI Securities Ltd.||Ashika Research||472.50||620.00||472.50 (-6.50%)||40.33||Buy|
|2020-06-10||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||405.50||442.00||405.50 (8.95%)||Target met||Accumulate|
We upgrade ISEC to ADD (from SELL) with TP of Rs 442 (22.5x FY22E EPS). We recently interacted with the management of ISEC and were impressed by its focus on digital initiatives. We believe C/I ratios will improve over FY20-22E to 45.9% (-520bps). Additionally, in the near term increased market volatility is expected to boost revenues and earnings.
|2020-05-19||ICICI Securities Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||364.00||460.00||364.00 (21.37%)||Target met||Buy|
19 Securities ICICI May 2020 19 May 2020 ICICI Securities ISEC is focusing on generating higher average revenue per customer (ARPU) and customer acquisition, which should lead to superior overall volumes. Core to the ISEC strategy is ARPU (including distribution and lending revenues), and thus, cross-selling and innovative offerings are likely to be key initiatives in revenue generation. However, with trail commissions on net flows higher than those on the back book, yields improved to 66bp in 4QFY20. Commission yields are now stable/marginally improving and revenues should grow in line with AUM. In addition to providing an extra revenue stream, the distribution business also helps to reduce overall volatility of earnings stemming from the brokerage and investment banking segments. In addition to brokerage and distribution, other key revenue sources for ISEC include margin funding and investment banking.
|2020-05-08||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||358.60||316.00||358.60 (23.20%)||28.47||Sell|
We expect FY21E to be a challenging year for broking as lower prices imply lower ADTVs. Distribution revenues will be impacted by lower MF AAUMs, a difficult environment for insurance, and alternative investment product sales. Earnings are expected to remain flat over FY20-22E. We rate ISEC a SELL with a TP of Rs 316 (18x Mar-22E EPS). Any strong rally in equity markets, higher market share, better environment for financial product sales, and any marked reduction in costs remain key risks. Hightened market volatility and ADTVs in Mar-20 resulted in higher core $QFY20 broking revenues (+25.6/27.9% YoY/QoQ) driving total adj. revenues to Rs 4.5bn (+22.0/15.8% YoY/QoQ, +14.6% vs. est.) and APAT to Rs 1.6bn (+76.8/13.6% YoY/QoQ, +18.8% vs. est.). We increase our FY21E/22E earnings estimates by 12.7/10.8% but continue to rate ISEC a SELL with an increased TP of Rs 316 (P/E of 18x FY22E).
|2020-02-25||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||499.65||435.00||499.65 (-11.58%)||Target met||Sell|
While volumes continue to increase deteriorating mix, and increased competition is expected to keep yields down. Distribution revenues have bottomed out. ISEC is rapidly building loan assets which will drive earnings in the near term. All the above, along with new initiatives and cost control will drive earnings at FY20-22E CAGR of 17.9%. Our rating on ISEC remains a SELL, despite us raising target multiple to 18x (PEG=1), increasing our TP to Rs 435. Our TP implies a FY19-31E APAT CAGR of 17.3%. Risks: Uptick in equity markets coupled with increased retail participation. We attended ISECs sell side analyst day and were impressed by the strong client franchise, innovations and focus on adding value propositions (apart from pricing) for customers. While we appreciate the fundamental strength of ISECs business model, we believe valuations at FY21E/22E P/E of 23.5/20.8x are stretched. We rate ISEC a SELL with TP of Rs 435 (18x FY22E EPS).
|2020-01-21||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||430.30||376.00||430.30 (2.67%)||Target met||Sell|
While volumes increase deteriorating mix is expected to keep yields under check. Distribution revenues have bottomed out. ISEC is rapidly building loan assets which will drive earnings in the near term. All the above, along with cost control will drive earnings at FY20-22E CAGR of 17.9%. We increase FY20E/21E/22E APAT estimates by 0.6/4.8/5.1%, and continue to rate ISEC a SELL with a TP of Rs 376 (16x Dec-21E EPS). We believe 16x is a fair multiple for the stock given market linked nature of its business lines. A rally in equity markets coupled with increased retail participation remains a key risk. Higher core broking revenues and strong growth in funding book drive profits, while distribution and IB remain soft. Cost decline is lower than our expectation.
|2019-10-23||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||309.00||288.00||309.00 (42.98%)||Target met||Neutral|
With increased competitive intensity and changing mix, broking yields are expected to further decline. Additionally, regulatory reduction in MF TERs continues to pressure distribution revenues in the short term. Cost control will be a key earnings driver (~14.4% YoY in FY20E). We expect FY19-22E APAT CAGR of 12.7%. A rally in equity markets coupled with increased retail participation remains a key risk to our call. Higher than expected distribution and IB revenues offsets softer broking revenues. Cost decline is lower than expectation. We increase FY20E/21E/22E APAT estimates by 7.6/8.1/9.0% to build in better distribution and IB outlook. We rate ISEC a NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 288 (14x Sep-21E EPS).
|2019-07-23||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||225.55||225.00||225.55 (95.88%)||Target met||Neutral|
With increased competitive intensity and changing mix, we except broking yields to continue to decline. Additionally, regulatory reduction in MF TERs continues to pressure distribution revenues in the short term. Cost control will be a key earnings driver (~-10% YoY in FY20E) and we await detailed management commentary on the same. We expect an anemic FY19-22E APAT CAGR of 5.4%. A rally in equity markets coupled with increased retail participation remains a key risk to our call. Despite softer revenues, better cost management aided ISEC to report an in-line 1QFY20. ISEC continues to diversify its revenue streams (distribution of bank products) and focus on cost reduction, as challenges to its core broking and distribution revenue continue. We rate ISEC a NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 225 (14x Jun-21 EPS).
|2019-04-24||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||215.00||235.00||215.00 (105.49%)||Target met||Neutral|
With increased competitive intensitywe except broking yields to decline further. Additionally, regulatory reduction in MF TERs will pressure distribution revenues. The only silver lining we see is the emerging cost consciousness. We expect an anemic FY19-21E PAT CAGR of 4.8% p.a. Longer than expected rally in equity markets coupled with increased retail participation remains a key risk. We rate ISEC a NEUTRAL post weaker than expected 4QFY19. Challenges to revenue and earnings growth continue due to increased competition and regulatory pressures. Our TP stands at Rs 235 (14x FY21E EPS).
|2019-01-15||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||260.70||298.00||260.70 (69.47%)||Target met||Neutral|
As all major segments of the business are under pressure we downgrade stock to NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 298 (+8.6%) based on 16x Dec-20E EPS. Our multiple is premised on growth opportunities, market leadership and ISEC's strong financial products distribution franchise. ISEC reported a disappointing 3QFY19 with revenues/PAT at Rs 3.9bn/1.0bn (-18/-34% YoY). Broking/distribution revenues declined 17/12% YoY to Rs 2.3/1.1bn, while investment banking revenues declined 37% YoY to Rs 256mn. EBITDA declined 33% YoY as management was able to reduce costs only by 3% YoY.
|2018-09-25||ICICI Securities Ltd.||HDFC Securities||298.95||352.00||298.95 (47.78%)||Buy|
We initiate with a BUY rating and TP of Rs 352 (+19.1%). ICICI Securities (ISEC) is one of the strongest retail investing platforms for direct equities (9.2% vol. market share). The company has retained its market leadership position despite intense competition. ISEC has also built a strong financial products distribution business (26.2% of revenues). We believe that ISEC will be a key beneficiary as financialization of savings grows.
|2018-03-22||ICICI Securities Ltd.||Ventura||IPO Note|
|2018-03-22||ICICI Securities Ltd.||Choice India||IPO Subscribe|
ICICI Securities Ltd. (ISEC) is a leading technology based securities firm in India that offers a wide range of financial services including brokerage, financial product distribution and investment banking; and focuses on both retail and institutional clients....
|2018-03-21||ICICI Securities Ltd.||SMC online||IPO Note|
company is the largest equity broker in India since fiscal 2014 by brokerage revenue and active customers in equities on the NSE. The electronic brokerage platform provides an integrated interface that allows its customers to track various portfolio parameters, including the performance of their investments. The company operates through 200 owned...
|2018-03-21||ICICI Securities Ltd.||Ashika Research||Economy Update|
DSP Merrill Lynch Limited, Citigroup Global Markets India Private Limited, CLSA India Private Limited, Edelweiss Financial Services Limited, IIFL Holdings Limited and SBI Capital Markets Limited Equity Share Pre Issue (Nos. Cr.)...
|2018-03-21||ICICI Securities Ltd.||BP Wealth||IPO Avoid|
Incorporated in 1995, ICICI Securities (a subsidiary of ICICI Bank) is headquartered in Mumbai and has its operations across India, United States, Singapore and Oman. It operates through its 200 own branches along with 2600 branches of ICICI Bank and also associated with 4600 sub brokers, authorised persons, independent financial associates and independent associates across 500 cities. It is a leading technology-based securities company in India that offers a wide range of financial services such as distributing various 3rd party financial products which includes mutual funds, insurance products, loans, and pension products, the advisory services which includes financial planning, equity portfolio advisory, access to alternate investments, retirement planning and estate planning, brokerage services and also capital markets services which include management of public equity offerings, share buybacks, tender offers and equity private placements. It has also ventured into investment banking business and offers equity capital markets services and other financial advisory services to corporate...