ITC Ltd.

NSE: ITC | BSE: 500875 | ISIN: INE154A01025 | Industry: Cigarettes-Tobacco Products
| Falling Comet
419.3000 3.30 (0.79%)
NSE Jun 20, 2025 15:07 PM
Volume: 8.2M
 

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ITC Ltd.
05 Aug 2019
419.30
0.79%
HDFC Securities
Stable taxes in FY19 accelerated cig volume/EBIT growth to 5.5/9% vs. -5/7% CAGR during FY15-18. Even then ITC did not enjoy a re-rating as investors flocked towards peers like HUL, Dabur and Britannia etc. Rather, cig business saw a de-rating (20-25%, based on assigning fair valuation to other segments) over the last 12-months. We believe the quantum of de-rating is unfair and expect implied cig valuation will recover to its 5 year average EV/EBITDA of 18x (20% discount to Colgate's 1 year forward EV/EBITDA of 22x; similar market leadership, vol growth and pricing power). Mean reversion in cig valuation will be led by (1) Stable taxes, (2) EBIT margin expansion and (3) Pickup in rural consumption. FMCG margin expansion is the other catalyst for a re-rating. We believe that unfair valuation discount will narrow. ITCs 1Q performance was soft vs. its FY19 show but in-line with FMCG peers. We expect 1Q growth trajectory to replicate over FY20, led by higher base of cig. volume growth and consumption slowdown. We value ITC on SoTP basis and arrive at a TP of Rs 362 (implied P/E of 28x vs. earlier assigned P/E of 32x). We de-rate cigarette business by 10% (EV/EBITDA 18x vs. 20x implied earlier) owing to slower than expected volume growth in the era of stable taxes. Maintain BUY.
ITC Ltd. is trading below all available SMAs
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