Telecom Services
Telecom Services
SECTOR | 31 Jul 2019
HDFC Securities
TechM's EBIT margin is down 462bps in the last two quarters, highest fall within Tier-1 peers. Revenue growth is facing challenges with a slowdown in the Enterprise segment offset by some pick-up in Telecom. Manufacturing and BFSI weakness will continue. Also, the sustainability of Telecom growth is questionable considering macro uncertainty. TCV wins of USD 475mn is encouraging but recovery will only be in 2HFY20. We expect USD revenue CAGR of 6.4% over FY19-22E led by Telecom/Enterprise CAGR of 7.5/5.7%. Growth and margin challenges will lead to 2.7% earnings CAGR over FY19-22E. TechM is down 22% in the last 3M and trades at a P/E of 13.2x FY21E. We maintain our SELL rating due to margin volatility and growth challenges. The risks to our thesis include better than expected macros in US/Europe, an uptick in 5G spending and INR depreciation. We maintain SELL on Tech Mahindra post weak 1QFY20. Slowdown in Enterprise segment and fall in margins is a cause for concern. Growth metrics remain weak (+2.7% earnings CAGR) with an inferior business mix vs. peers (Telecom dependency). We cut EPS est. for FY20/21E by 4.9/8.5% to factor in lower margin. Our TP of Rs 595 implies 12x June-21E earnings.
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