HDFC Securities
Initiate with a BUY on DBCL with a TP of Rs 282 (+41%) and JAGP with a TP of Rs 148 (+33%), both at a modest 12x FY21E EPS (35/25% discount to historic average). We have assumed a revenue CAGR of 5.5/6% for DBCL/JAGP over FY19-21E. Our EBITDA/earnings CAGR is 21.5/25% for DBCL and 16/21% for JAGP are led by a decline in NP prices. FY17-19 washout years: Indian print media had been caught up in the crossfire of demonetisation, GST, an economic slowdown, govt clampdown on classified ads and a steep rise in newsprint prices. Consequently, 9MFY19 EBITDA margin have declined by 400-600bps to 21-22% vs. the 5yr trailing avg of 26-27% (and peak margins of 30-32%).
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