BOB Capital Markets Ltd.
A confluence of slowing global economic growth, easing oil prices, open market (OMO) purchases by the RBI, and contained inflation has helped rein in domestic yields. We estimate OMO purchases of Rs 2.5tn-3tn in FY19, dipping to Rs 1.5tn-2tn (at currency demand of Rs 3tn) in FY20 as FPI inflows likely gather pace. While this should ensure a narrow range for India's 10-year yield at 7.25-7.75% in FY20, we expect bank deposit rates to continue to move up as credit growth outstrips that of deposits....
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