IDBI Capital
Brent Crude oil price weakened by 18.6% MoM to average US$65.5/bbl in Nov'18 on the back of concern on demand growth and higher non-OPEC supply expectation for 2018 and 2019. OPEC expects global demand growth to be ~1.3mbpd while Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by ~2.2mbpd. OPEC production declined marginally by 0.6% MoM to 33.1mbpd on the back of higher production from Saudi Arabia partially offset by Iran, Iraq and Libya. Non-OPEC production increased marginally by 0.6% MoM to 60.2mbpd owing to higher production from North Sea and Russia. US Crude oil inventory stood at 443mn bbls up 5.8% for the month of Nov'18. US Refinery utilization have improved by 4.2% MoM to average at 92.8% for the month of Nov'18. Also, Singapore Gross refining margin (GRM) declined by 4% MoM to US$4.8/bbl in Nov'18 mainly led by lower crack spreads from Fuel Oil, Gasoline and Gasoil. Gross Marketing margins remain at elevated levels for the month of Nov'18. Arab Light-Heavy differential declined by 4% MoM to US$2.3/bbl whereas Rupee appreciated by 2.5% MoM to Rs71.8/US$ in the month of Nov'18. On Natural Gas space, LNG prices remained higher at US$9.7/mmbtu owing to strong demand across countries like China, Japan, US and India. We expect Spot LNG prices to...
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