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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    26 Sep 2016
    From the boardroom to behind bars: Indian CEOs who landed up in jail

    From the boardroom to behind bars: Indian CEOs who landed up in jail

    #Infographic: Business leaders and CEOs are more accepted in India than ever before. Until the 1990s Indian politics was contemptuous of capitalism, calling it 'cut-throat', Indira Gandhi even referred to business leaders as 'dark and evil forces.' We have come a long way, with leading business CEOs and MDs celebrated in the news, and successful startup founders veiewed as something to aspire toward.
    However CEOs don't have the immunity and protections India's politicians seem to have, and every now and then a high profile case has landed business leaders in prison (see infographic). Ramlinga Raju, the former CEO of Satyam Computers, was one of the most notorious, and he confessed to an accounting fraud to the tune of ?7,000 crore or $1.5 billion. Raju described how initial, small cover-ups in quarterly performance escalated over the years to truly large-scale fraud: "It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten." 
    Subrata Roy, the Chairman of Sahara, hit the headlines in equally dramatic fashion. His company Sahara India Pariwar ran full page ads for a savings schemes, promising high returns that drew a large number of investors, and that SEBI ruled to be illegal. Unable to return Rs.20,000 crore to the many small investors who had put in their money, Subrata Roy landed in jail, and remains in Tihar.
    Jignesh Shah is another more recent case, in legal trouble now and arrested by the CBI for activities linked to the MCX and his own company, FTIL. Shah is likely to spend years in court fighting these cases. Another recent lesser-profile case involved the CEO and MD of Rathi Steel and Power. Pradeep and Udit Rathi participated in the allocation of coal blocks by the UPA government, and both the CEO and MD were convicted to three years in prison for 'misrepresentation' and exaggerating their company's capacity, in order to get coal blocks allocated to them. 
    But there have also been problems with overzealous prosecution. The detention ofAmway CEO William Scott Pickney for instance, due to a warrant issued by a district court in Andhra Pradesh, as well as the imprisonment in 2012 of Chetan Mahajan, head of an IIT coaching company, for a month in Bokaro jail after the firm's faculty quit and the parents of students handed him over to police, are examples where heads of companies were put in jail on flimsy pretexts. Pickney was in fact arrested twice in India, first in Kerala and then later in AP, due to a misreading of an 1978 Act that was put into place before direct selling. A warrant was also issued to the Sify Technologies CEO Kamal Nath for providing tech services to Amway. 
    Crony capitalism continues to be a problem in India - India ranks ninth in the world here - but better regulation and enforcement, thanks to the independence of regulators like SEBI and laws like the Companies Act, mean the environment have improved in recent years. In fact, in recent scams that have involved both government officials and companies, company officials are more likely to be prosecuted and brought to justice than the politicians  who colluded with them.  Transparency International rankedIndian firms as the most transparent among all Emerging Markets, with Airtel gaining the top spot. Indian regulators have pushed more stringent laws in recent years, such as RBI's recent guidelines on disclosure and auction of stressed assets, and TRAI's rulings in favor of net neutrality. Hopefully these will help catch fraud and malpractice early, before they grow to the size of the Satyam and Sahara Parivar scams. 

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    The Baseline
    26 Sep 2016
    GNA Axles IPO makes impressive debut, Jio SIM cards sit unactivated

    GNA Axles IPO makes impressive debut, Jio SIM cards sit unactivated

    • Even as the war between Jio and the Cellular Operators Association heats up, its becoming harder to get hold or activate a Jio SIM card. Users that stood in queues for a SIM card have been waiting for over two weeks for activation. E-KYC booths at the stores were supposed to enable activation within 15 minutes, but these booths are available only in Mumbai and Delhi at a few outlets. This combined with delays by Airtel and others in providing number portability, have led to users stuck with an unactivated SIM. Due to delays and long queues in getting the Jio SIM have some dealers taking advantage, selling the free SIMs for upto Rs. 40.
    • The GNA Axles IPO, which had received middling reviews from experts made an impressive debut on markets today, scoring a 20% premium over the offer price, The Rs 130 crore IPO was oversubscribed nearly 54.88 times. The company is export oriented, and brokerages and analysts had pegged it as a somewhat risky investment in a slowing global market. 
    • The Central government and the Supreme Court may be nearing a showdown on Aadhaar, with the court issuing a stay on UGC's rule that made Aadhaar mandatory for government scholarships. The Aadhaar law itself permits the use of the number for government benefits, subsidies and services, but does not make Aadhaar mandatory. The government's argument has been that the use of Aadhaar authentication will reduce fraud and leakage of essential services and subsidies. 
    • Amazon will start up the festival sales on October 1, a day ahead of Flipkart and Snapdeal, who will launch their own discounts starting October 2. With e-commerce players restricted from handing out big discounts on their own due to new rules, they have been trying to incentivise merchants on their platform to offer discounts to customers. Amazon will be spending at least twice the marketing budget of Flipkart to attract customers during the season.
    • Photo of the day: Virat Kohli knocked out early in the innings between India and New Zealand with 18 runs, while Jadeja and Sharma scored half-centuries. Firstpost
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    The Baseline
    23 Sep 2016
    Stock Market Research Reports: September 19-22

    Stock Market Research Reports: September 19-22

    Research reports summary from brokerages this week, with six BUY reports, and one SELL report for MindTree.
    Mindtree also has the ignominy of being listed among the Top 20 Wealth Destroyers by ETMarkets. Mindtree has lost nearly 35% of its market value over the last one year, troubled by top exec exits, multiple project cancellations and the headwinds that have hit the IT sector. 
    Stock pick of the week by brokerages is Essel Propack Limited. The company has received three BUY reports over the last three weeks, with two brokerages revising targets upwards.  
    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-09-22HeidelbergCement India Limited 160.0018.74%BUY134.75Dynamic Levels 2x
    2016-09-21Essel Propack Limited 262.0011.97%BUY234.00Emkay and 1 other1x
    2016-09-21Tata Coffee Limited 150.0016.50%BUY128.75Dynamic Levels
    2016-09-21Idea Cellular Limited --BUY83.30Nirmal Bang 2x
    2016-09-20Banco Products (I) Limited 270.0021.65%BUY221.95Dynamic Levels
    2016-09-20Siti Cable Network Limited 35.00--34.55ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-09-20Blue Dart Express Limited 6500.0019.45%BUY5441.70ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-09-19Relaxo Footwears Limited 419.00--465.00Emkay
    2016-09-19MindTree Limited 490.003.48%SELL507.65Emkay 2x

    See all reports here. 

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    The Baseline
    23 Sep 2016
    New RBI Monetary Committee clips Guv wings but keeps independence; L&T TechServices lists

    New RBI Monetary Committee clips Guv wings but keeps independence; L&T TechServices lists

    • L&T Technology Services, which had received a BUY rating from 5/7 brokerages, listed at a premium of 7% over its offer price in stock markets today. The price has ticked down slightly as of 12:00 pm, currently trading approximately 4.4% higher at Rs. 897. The stock performance is faring better than the previous L&T subsidiary that listed in July. L&T Infotech had been over-subscribed by nearly 12 times and had listed 6% below its issue price of Rs. 710, and has yet to cross it's issue price on the stock market. 

    • Those wary of government interference in India's Central Bank can heave a sigh of relief today, now that the three new appointees to the Monetary Policy Committee have no government representative to push the agenda. The Modi government's new appointees to the MPC - which trims the wings of the RBI Governor, requiring interest rates to be decided by committee - are three professors, including Ravindra Dholakia of IIMA, who has been a critic of former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's policies. 

    • The Supreme Court has sent Subrata Roy back to jail. Roy has been on parole since May, the handcuffs came off first on humanitarian grounds due to the death of his mother and later for him to arrange money for his investors. The SC however refused his latest request for parole extension. 

    • How bloody is the battle for market share going to be in the telecom sector? Vodafone's international arm has just put a lot more money into Vodafone India's wallet, giving it a Rs. 47,700 crore cash infusion ahead of the spectrum bid that begins on October 1. This is at a time when worry about market growth has reached new heights - data revenue growth for existing operators have slowed considerably from last year, with Airtel's expanding at just 4.5% in the June quarter, and Vodafone's shrinking to 22% compared to last year's 65%.

    • Photo of the day: Mumbai on alert, with NSG and Force One sent to the city after schoolkids spot armed men in Navi Mumbai. Firstpost

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    The Baseline
    22 Sep 2016
     The Rich List; IT officials target local dosa and vada pav sellers

    The Rich List; IT officials target local dosa and vada pav sellers

    • The rich list for 2016: the topper of Forbes India's wealthiest is no surprise, with Mukesh Ambani coming in at No. 1 with $22.7 billion net worth, nearly $6 billion more than Dilip Shanghvi at number 2. For context, that wealth difference between the No. 1 and 2 ranking would rank 15 on the Forbes list. The Modi government's boost to infrastructure have benefited cement and paints, which have helped a couple of new entrants - Benu Gopal Bangur of Shree Cements and Ashwin Dani of Asian Paints - reach the list. Forbes

    • Indian markets have bounced back up after both the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan kept their key rates unchanged; however the US Fed also said that they may raise rates at the end of the year. Markets are likely to remain cautious in the wake of India-Pakistan tensions, and how these develop over the next few days. Social media exploded over the past few days since the Uri attack, with some Indians appealing for calm while other users such as Sanjay Dixit conducted polls on what weapons India should respond with. 

    • Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah responded to the Supreme Court ruling directing the government to release more water to Tamil Nadu by saying that the order is not possible to implement, and has instead decided to convene a session of both houses on September 23 to take a decision on the issue. The order by the Supreme Court will, based on our calculations make it impossible for Karnataka to meet the drinking water needs of the state. 

    • Income Tax officials are targeting small eateries and roadside businesses, raiding their premises and asking them to declare their black money under the Income Declaration Scheme. Some estimates put the cash seized from store premises in Mumbai at Rs. 2 crores. ET

    • Photo of the day: A demon awakes, as artisans dress up a model of Kumbhakarna in preparation for a carnival in Chandigarh. Reuters

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    The Baseline
    21 Sep 2016
     'Unimplementable': A big drinking water deficit for Bangalore and Karnataka, with Cauvery ruling

    'Unimplementable': A big drinking water deficit for Bangalore and Karnataka, with Cauvery ruling

    #DATAVIEW: The Supreme Court order on Kaveri water-sharing with Tamil Nadu is going to affect the state adversarily due to the longer-term impact this year on drinking water supply. Forget the news of lost business due to the Bangalore bandh and protests after the initial SC ruling. The September 20 SC ruling hurts Karnataka in a drought year by leaving far less than what is required for drinking water to Bangalore, and the rest of Karnataka. 

    The chart above (click to view)gives a deficit estimate if even the earlier order for 3000 cusecs of water to Tamil Nadu is fulfilled - Bangalore and the state would face a deficit of 6.72 TMCT (thousand million cubic feet) of drinking water based on water requirements till May 2017. The Supreme Court ruling yesterday doubled that amount to 6000 cusecs, which would bring Karnataka's drinking water deficit to 9.4 TMCT of water. 

    While many in Karnataka are protesting the SC ruling, the fact remains that the SC's elbow room is limited due to the 2007 Tribunal ruling that Karnataka release 90 TMCT of water to Tamil Nadu every year. This being a drought year, Karnataka is seeing shortfall in rain, and the reservoirs are 75% empty.

    The water in Karnataka's reservoirs is now at 26 TMCT. The release to TN would bring it to 19.2 TMCT. Bangalore and the rest of Karnataka need 30 TMCT of water until May 2017, when the next rains come. The deficit means that Bangaloreans and the rest of Karnataka are in for a dry summer.  It's why the Karnataka government is insisting today that the SC order is "unimplementable". 

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    The Baseline
    21 Sep 2016
    US bill to designate Pakistan a 'terrorist state', Jignesh Shah arrested

    US bill to designate Pakistan a 'terrorist state', Jignesh Shah arrested

    • Two US lawmakers have released a bill to designate Pakistan as a terrorist state. The bill says that its time "the US stopped paying Pakistan for its betrayal" in its continuing support of international terrorism. ET

    • Three weeks after Jio announced its disruptive tariffs, Airtel, Vodafone and Idea haven't lowered prices of their own offerings. Airtel has suggested that they may wait to take a decision on tariffs only at the end of the year, once Jio's free services come to an end. For now customers of Jio competitors are seeing response on a case by case basis, when they make mobile number porting requests. In such cases, Airtel, Vodafone and Jio are offering these customers higher usage plans at lower prices. LiveMint

    • NSEL director Jignesh Shah was arrested by the CBI following raids at his home and offices. The federal agency also carried out searches of five current and former SEBI officials. The FIR filed by the CBI names these SEBI officials as part of their investigation. BS

    • The price war has begun for this festival season, as Snapdeal takes on Flipkart with the 'Unbox Diwali' sale which starts on October 2. Flipkart will begin its sale over the same period, starting October 1. Both retailers will be announcing discounts upwards of 70%. Amazon has yet to announce its discount sale dates. Firstpost

    • Photo of the day: A woman lights a candle as part of a tribute to soldiers killed in the attack on an Indian army base in Kashmir's Uri. IE

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    The Baseline
    20 Sep 2016
    Proposed IPO values NSE at Rs. 45,000 crore, Heritage Foods hits record high

    Proposed IPO values NSE at Rs. 45,000 crore, Heritage Foods hits record high

    • The draft prospectus for the NSE IPO is expected to release within the next six months. Bankers are asking investors to sell their holding in the bourse’s proposed initial share sale at a price that values the NSE at Rs 45,000 crore - 30 times the projected earnings for FY 2018. This valuation is 2.5 times the level the NSE was assessed at when SBI sold 5% of its stake in July. LiveMint
    • Shares of Heritage Foodshave hit a record high on reports in the media that Future Group is in talks to acquire the retail arm of the company. The stock has surged over 70% since mid-July, outperforming the market. The Exchange has sought confirmation from Future Group on news of the talks. BS
    • The French power company EDF plans to pump over $2 billion into the Indian energy market, betting big on renewable energy. It predicts that energy tariffs will fall 30% on the back of renewable energy efforts over the next five years. EDF is also in discussions on Indian nuclear energy projects, for which it has initial agreements with NPCI.  ET
    • Carmakers including Maruti and Hyundai are offering big discounts on their older models, to adjust to demand that is focusing on their newer cars. The expectation is that the festive season will see many first-time buyers on the back of government pay hikes. Companies are betting on buyers preferring highly discounted older models during the auspicious season over being waitlisted for a new version for several months. FE
    • Photo of the day is a sleeping lion: A lion rests in the Maasai Mara reserve, Kenya. Reuters
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    The Baseline
    19 Sep 2016
    Biggest IPO in six years hits markets, war of words escalates between Airtel and Jio

    Biggest IPO in six years hits markets, war of words escalates between Airtel and Jio

    • Mega IPO time: ICICI Prudential, the biggest IPO to hit the markets in six years kickstarts today. Investors had bid for over four lakh shares within the first 10 minutes of the bidding process. The issue has received 0.30 per cent subscription against the issue size of 13.23 crore shares. Analysts are viewing this IPO as a long-term hold, rather than a purchase for listing gains. ET
    • The battle between telecom giants escalated, with Airtel responding to Reliance Jio's accusations, saying that Jio is attempting to blame others for its own connectivity issues. Airtel says that Jio's massive dropped calls is due to its own technical issues, and not because Airtel failed to provide sufficient interconnect points. BS
    • While Ola is looking at adding more cars on the road to increase capacity, Uber in India is increasingly looking at peer-to-peer cab hailing, where anyone who owns a car can sign up with Uber to pick up and ferry passengers. This may be a risky strategy in India where safety issues are an ongoing concern. LiveMint
    • The Modi government is considering an early session of Parliament, in the first week of November, to pass the GST bills. The two bills are supporting legislations to the bill already passed, and will pave the way for implementation of GST by the Finance Ministry. Firstpost
    • Photo of the Day: Onlookers after an explosive device went off in New York's upscale and bustling Chelsea neighborhood, injuring 29 people, none of them in a life-threatening condition. Bryan Smith/AFP

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    The Baseline
    16 Sep 2016
    Research Report Summary: September 10-15

    Research Report Summary: September 10-15

    New research reports for the week, with 12 BUY reports, and 1 SELL report for Tata Steel.

    Stock choice this week from brokerages is Mahindra & Mahindra, with two recommendation upgrades in the past six months. The company has an average target from ten brokers ofRs. 1513. 

     

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-09-15Linc Pen & Plastics Limited 282.00   -    -283.45Emkay 1x 1x
    2016-09-15Tata Steel Limited 357.003.07%Sell368.30Emkay and 1 other1x
    2016-09-15Coal India Limited 365.0012.34%Accumulate324.90Emkay and 1 other3x
    2016-09-15Mahindra CIE Automotive Limi.. 225.0016.34%Buy193.40ICICI Securities Limited  
    2016-09-15CESC Limited 645.00-2.79%Hold663.50ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-09-15IL&FS Transportation Network.. 93.000.38%Neutral92.65Angel Broking  
    2016-09-14Balkrishna Industries Limited 972.0012.76%Buy862.00HDFC Securities and 1 other 
    2016-09-14National Aluminium Company L.. 51.009.56%Buy46.55Emkay and 1 other 
    2016-09-14JB Chemicals & Pharmaceutica.. 456.0017.22%Buy389.00CD Equisearch  
    2016-09-14PTC India Limited 37.00-53.84%Hold80.15ICICI Securities Limited  
    2016-09-14TV Today Network Limited 363.0017.99%Buy307.65Angel Broking  
    2016-09-13Mahindra & Mahindra Limited 1713.0019.96%Buy1428.00Motilal Oswal 2x 1x
    2016-09-13GNA Axles IPO --%--ICICI Securities Limited  
    2016-09-13Reliance Defence and Enginee.. 64.0012.97%Buy56.65ICICI Securities Limited  
    2016-09-13PREMCO GLOBAL LTD. --%-595.10ICICI Securities Limited  
    2016-09-13Timken India Limited 614.0010.76%Buy554.35ICICI Securities Limited  
    2016-09-12Reliance Power Limited 59.0011.64%Buy52.85Emkay  
    2016-09-12L&T Technology Services Ltd .. --%--Arihant Capital and 1 other 
    2016-09-12Sobha Limited 360.0023.90%Buy290.55Motilal Oswal  
    2016-09-12Bajaj Finance Limited 1275.0015.07%Neutral1108.05Motilal Oswal 1x
    2016-09-12Siyaram Silk Mills Limited 1315.001.47%Hold1296.00ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-09-12Steel Authority of India Lim.. 45.00-6.05%Hold47.90ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2016-09-12Gujarat State Petronet Limited 170.0013.11%Buy150.30ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2016-09-12Gujarat Gas Limited 615.000.57%Hold611.50ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other 
    2016-09-12Gujarat State Fertilizers & .. 100.0033.07%Accumulate75.15Emkay  
    2016-09-12Solar Industries India Limited 696.008.01%Buy644.40Chola Wealth Direct  
    2016-09-10MBL Infrastructures Limited --%-111.60Phillip Capital  
    2016-09-10Jindal Steel & Power Limited 88.005.14%Neutral83.70Motilal Oswal  
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