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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks in PBV Sell …
    06 Oct 2021

    Stocks in PBV Sell Zone

    Stocks which are in the Sell Zone based on their Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio
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    The Baseline
    06 Oct 2021
    Chart of the week: HDFC Bank's loss is ICICI Bank and SBI Cards' gain

    Chart of the week: HDFC Bank's loss is ICICI Bank and SBI Cards' gain

    In August 2021, the RBI allowed HDFC Bank to issue credit cards after nine months. During this time, ICICI Bank and SBI Cards and Payment Services (State Bank of India's credit card issuer) have grabbed market share at HDFC Bank's expense. 

    In December 2020, HDFC Bank had a 25.2% share of the credit card market (by outstanding credit cards issued). This dropped to 23.1% in August. In that time, ICICI Bank and SBI Cards issued 24.8 lakh and 19.4 lakh credit cards in nine months, increasing their market share to 17.9% and 19.4%, respectively.

    However, it looks like HDFC Bank is now working to close the gap. In the one month since RBI lifted the ban, HDFC Bank issued over 4 lakh credit cards. The largest bank in the country will target adding 5 lakh new credit card customers in the next two quarters.

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    The Baseline
    04 Oct 2021
    Hard to Resist: Five new stocks that are analyst picks despite 100%+ returns

    Hard to Resist: Five new stocks that are analyst picks despite 100%+ returns

    Over the past week, analysts have been picking stocks in a market that has already run up substantially over the past year. Some of these stocks that have emerged as analyst favorites have generated 100% (or close to it) returns over one year, but are among fresh buy calls as September quarter results draw close. 

    1. Dalmia Bharat: This cement company has climbed over 170% in the past year, but gets love from Axis analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi for its falling debt levels and fresh capacity being added. The company has healthy growth in sales volumes, they note, as well as margin expansion driven by product mix optimization, prudent market mix, and cost-efficiency initiatives. "Owing to cost optimization measures, the company’s cost/tonne was reduced by 4.6% YoY," they write. Their target is at Rs. 2450, an upside of 15%+

    2. Bharat Electronics: ICICI Securities is bullish on this aerospace and defence electronics company, which has already gained 109%+ in the past year. There are still gains to be had, they say, noting its order inflow growth, sustained margins and strong order book. "We expect revenue, EBITDA to grow at CAGR of ~14.6%, 11.9%, respectively, in FY21-23E aided by sustained margins in range of 21-22%," analysts Chirag Shah and Amit Anwani write, assigning it a target price of Rs 250, an upside of 22%. 

    3. Piramal Enterprises: Financial company PEL has already had an impressive run up in share price over the past year, gaining over 104%. But its completion of the DHFL acquisition has analysts enthused. Motilal Oswal assigns it a target price of Rs. 3150, an upside of 18%+. "We expect the Financial Services business to deliver ~2.3% RoA/10% RoE over the medium term (post building in the DHFL acquisition)," Abhijit Tibrewal and team write. 

    4. Birlasoft: With strong growth across this IT company's top 20 accounts, Ashika Research says that Birlasoft management remains optimistic for 15% revenue growth in FY22E. Ashika Research analysts give the company a 22% upside on a target price of 485, expecting it to continue rising after its gain over one year of 104%+. 

    5. Varun Beverages: The outlook is strong for this pepsico franchisee, according to analysts. The stock, which has already gained over 95% in the past year, has continued momentum based on a) its growing distribution network, b) rising penetration in the newly acquired region (south and west India), c) diversifying product portfolio, and d) growing refrigerator penetration in rural/and semi-rural areas per household and higher power availability hours. The average broker target for this stock is Rs. 1000 across analysts, an upside of 10%. 

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    The Baseline
    01 Oct 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Hindustan Unilever: This FMCG major’s stock saw three target price upgrades from analysts over the past month as they are enthused about the company’s prospects in Q2FY22. This confidence stems from resilient rural demand due to a good rabi harvesting season, rise in minimum support prices and an uptick in kharif sowing. The increased mobility across the country will also lead to a rise in demand for the company’s products, which will lead to decent growth, according to analysts.

    2. JSW Energy: The expectation of reforms in the power sector sent this power utility stock flying over the past month and touched a 52-week high on Thursday. So much so that, based on technical indicators like RSI and MFI, this stock is now the most overbought stock among the Nifty 500 companies. The stock is currently trading above all its simple moving averages.

    3. Bharat Forge: For the first time, a promoter group firm pledged shares of this company. This forging company’s promoter group firm Sundaram Trading And Investmentpledged nearly 3.44% of its stake in the firm to cover corporate guarantees given by a promoter group company to lenders.

    4. Coal India: With industrial activity picking up in India, this state-owned coal miner’s stock is back on investor’s radar. There is a shortage of supply of coal globally as many countries are looking to coal to run their power plants. A spike in natural gas prices is fueling this switch towards coal globally to run power plants due to an energy crisis. The expectation among investors seems to be that the shortage of coal will drive e-auction prices higher in India, despite Coal India’s assertions that it will ramp up production. Coal India might also plan price hikes on dry fuel to mitigate higher costs. Essentially, in an era of heightened attention towards climate change, good old coal seems to be the most reliable fuel.

    5. SBI Life Insurance: This life insurance company expects FY22 to be among the best years for its business in the past few years. According to a report by Motilal Oswal, the management in a recent interaction at an investor conference said that new business picked up in Q2FY22 as reflected in its robust operating metrics in the months of July and August. The company said at the conference that business is expected to grow in double digits in FY22.

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    The Baseline
    30 Sep 2021
    Chart of the week: Big IPO winners of FY22 (so far)

    Chart of the week: Big IPO winners of FY22 (so far)

    Investors are loving the initial public offering (IPO) season.  In FY22 so far, 22 companies across sectors like real estate, auto-components, specialty chemicals, and food tech have listed on public markets. 

    Among these, only five companies' stock prices are trading at twice the issue price - Clean Science & Technology, GR Infraprojects, Macrotech Developers, Ami Organics, and Tatva Chintan Pharma Chem. 

    Four companies listed at a discount to the issue price - CarTrade Tech, Windlas Biotech, Aptus Value Housing Finance, and Macrotech Developers. Of the companies that listed at a discount, only Macrotech Developers' stock managed to change course, while the rest are trading below their issue price.

    With share sales from several big businesses lined up for the second half of FY22, IPO season is far from over.

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    The Baseline created a screener Highest Piotroski Scores - …
    25 Sep 2021

    Highest Piotroski Scores - Nifty500 companies that score 9/9

    Screener tracking stocks with a High Piotroski Score (the well-known piotroski score checks the company's financial strength). To get notified of changes to the screener, set an alert.
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    The Baseline
    24 Sep 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Neogen Chemicals: Brokerages are positive about this specialty chemicals maker despite being in a market with many listed competitors. Three brokerages — ICICI Direct, HDFC Securities, and Edelweiss, gave the company a ‘Buy’ rating in recent reports. ICICI Direct expects the company’s capital expenditure to enhance capacity at its Dahej plant to generate revenue of Rs 350 crore by FY24. Even after the 33% price rise since the month began, the stock is trading 5.5% below the average broker target price.

    2. Sundram Fasteners: The management of this auto-components maker expects the automobile market to recover strongly in Q3FY22. Arathi Krishna, the Managing Director of the company said that demand from automobile original equipment manufacturers is 80-85% of pre-Covid levels in Q2FY22. Even with the second wave disrupting economic activity in Q1FY22, the company’s revenues jumped nearly 3X YoY and declined by just 11% sequentially. The reason for this, according to brokerages, is its low sales to commercial vehicle makers (especially heavy commercial vehicles) which are 18% off pre-second wave levels.

    3. Godrej Properties: Expecting a swift and steady revival in realty stocks, the Nifty Realty index gained nearly 30% in one month. This stock is leading the rally with a 42% gain in that time reaching a lifetime high. The developer registered sales of Rs 1,140 crore in the past six months from just one residential project in Noida. Over 50% of these sales came in one day. For the rest of FY22, the developer has a healthy pipeline of properties measuring 1.2 crore square ft. The market expects housing demand to remain robust in Q3FY22 especially with the festive season approaching.

    4. Alkyl Amines Chemicals: This specialty chemicals’ Managing Director Yogesh Kothari is routinely selling shares as its stock price corrects. In September alone, he sold 7.5 lakh shares representing 1.4% of the company for Rs 30.7 crore across 14 insider trades. In Q2FY22 so far, he sold nearly 9 lakh shares for Rs 36.3 crore. Since reaching a lifetime high of Rs 4,622 per share in early July, the stock is down by 14%.

    5. Vaibhav Global: This online retailer of fashion accessories and jewelry’s promoter is buying shares as the stock price declines. In September, its promoter (Brett Enterprises) holding a 55% stake, purchased over 3 lakh shares (0.18%) worth Rs 26.4 crore in seven insider trades. In FY22, the promoter has bought back over 12 lakh shares for Rs 56.7 crore in 17 insider trades. In that time, the stock price is down by 27%.

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks at their ten …
    24 Sep 2021

    Stocks at their ten year highs

    Stocks close to or at their ten year highs
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    The Baseline
    23 Sep 2021
    Chart of the week: Companies are filling in business gaps with acquisitions

    Chart of the week: Companies are filling in business gaps with acquisitions

    September so far, has been a month of acquisitions. Firms across sectors are buying up businesses to boost their offerings. 

    It started with HDFC Life Insurance Company's Rs 6,687 crore acquisition of Exide Life Insurance Company (on September 3).  Last week, two and three-wheeler maker TVS Motor Company acquired an 80% stake in Switzerland-based electric bike company EGO Movement to enter the European e-bike market. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala backed Nazara Technologies announced its third acquisition since its listing in March 2021 - the gaming company's esports business Nodwin Gaming acquired OML Entertainment's live events, gaming, and intellectual property verticals for Rs 73 crore on September 18. 

    This week, KEC International, KPIT Technologies, and Mphasis also announced acquisitions.

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    The Baseline
    20 Sep 2021
    Five stocks in the PE buy zone

    Five stocks in the PE buy zone

    Despite the runup in the market, some companies are still in the PE buy zone - trading below their average historical PEs. We took a look at five stocks that are in this PE buy range, and also have a high Durability Score. You can see the Buy Zone screener tracking historical PE for the full list.  

    1. Security and Intelligence Services (SIS): This security services company has traded below its current PE only 9% of its total trading days. The company has gained 29% over the last year, not a significant runup. It has a durability score of 80, with positive net profit and revenue growth YoY in its most recent quarter. 

    2. Sharda Cropchem: This agrochem business has got some investor attention in recent weeks, with the Momentum Score moving into the green. However the stock has traded below its current PE only 14% of its trading days. This is a low volatility stock that tends to maintain its gains for periods of time when it moves up, since rural demand patterns tend to be less volatile than other sectors.

    3. Coal India: This coal and energy company has seen a recent upswing in its share price, with its Momentum Score back in the green and rising 11% over the past month. At its current PE, it has traded below this level for 25% of its trading days. The company delivered a strong performance in August, with resilient volumes despite a weak month, reduction in dues from state power generators and good E-auction revenues according to analysts. 

    4. Castrol India: This oil lubricant stock is another potentially underpriced company in PE compared to historical levels. Even as its share price has picked up in recent weeks, it trades below current PE levels for just 15% of its trading days. While it may look like a good pickup at its current levels, risks remain - the drag in the auto sector due to supply constraints however, remains a key negative for companies like Castrol. 

    5. Edelweiss Financial Services:  Financial services have been on the upswing during the lockdown, although Edelweiss' stock was an underperformer, especially relative to the Nifty index. The company jumped back into the green in net profit numbers only in the last two quarters. It has traded below its current PE for just 20% of total trading days. 

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